The Cleveland Nine have too rich a history of developing players from obscurity to set aside. Their top prospects list on FanGraphs ran 46 deep before they traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets on Thursday, and two more will be added to the field. They have at least 17 prospects tagged with a 45 future value, whereas the White Sox have five. It wouldn't surprise me in if Cleveland regrouped into another formidable roster two or three years from now.
It also wouldn't surprise me if Cleveland takes its time getting its act together. Their pitching pipeline is tremendous, but attempts to develop young position players to supplement Lindor and José Ramírez have largely scuffled, and outside acquisitions didn't take quick root, either.
However it turns out, the trade itself is a gift to the White Sox for immediate goals, which is all the Sox should be concerned about. Trading Lindor and Carrasco might end up paying dividends down the line, but Cleveland's system was deep enough that its ownership could have justified taking one more swing now, then shuffling the roster afterward. The Dolans didn't have to choose between Lindor and a barren farm. They just didn't want to pay.
And while the White Sox aren't yet weathered enough as October players to completely disregard a Cleveland pitching staff that can make life miserable for series at a time, this helps. If you asked Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams what would make their mission easier, "Cleveland dealing Lindor and Carrasco for no immediate equivalents" would have to be up there.
The White Sox actually contained Lindor fairly well for his Cleveland career. His line reflects damage (.272/.344/.450), but below his career averages (.285/.346/.488). Those columns would all be a little lower if normally good-glove center fielders could've made a couple of key plays in Septembers.
Carrasco, who had pitched in 30 games and 163 innings against the White Sox in a career that started way back in 2009, morphed into a Grade-A Sox killer over the last three full seasons:
| Time | W-L | ERA | G | IP | H | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through 2016 | 3-9 | 5.62 | 17 | 88 | 93 | 11 | 28 | 91 |
| After 2016 | 7-3 | 2.40 | 13 | 75 | 55 | 6 | 10 | 89 |
| Total | 10-12 | 4.14 | 30 | 163 | 148 | 17 | 38 | 180 |
Carrasco's dominance of the White Sox was to the extent that a 2.40 ERA seemed high, but there's a reason. His last three appearances against the White Sox in 2019 were all rough, but they were all adjacent to his battle with chronic myeloid leukemia. He went on the injured list after giving up six runs over 6⅓ innings to the Sox on May 30, and then the Sox torched him over a pair of unsuccessful relief outings after he returned in September.
In two starts against the Sox earlier that May, Carrasco threw 12 shutout innings, including a rain-shortened five-inning two-hitter. The Sox found him just about unhittable over a two-plus-year stretch.
No matter how you carve up their pasts, with the White Sox matching up against the NL Central in interleague play next year, they'll get at least a one-year respite from both. The question is whether Cleveland has any immediate plans to redistribute the $30 million or so owed to Lindor and Carrasco, or whether the front office is going to hope that a whole bunch of unproven talent proves itself in 2021. The last couple years have shown that Cleveland's rotation can carry even a subpar offense into October, but when assessing all the changes, does the Cleveland lineup even rise to that level?
| October 2020 | Position | Right now |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Perez | C | Roberto Perez |
| Carlos Santana | 1B | Bobby Bradley? |
| Cease Hernandez | 2B | Andrés Giménez |
| José Ramírez | 3B | José Ramírez |
| Francisco Lindor | SS | Amed Rosario |
| Josh Naylor | LF | Josh Naylor |
| Delino DeShields Jr. | CF | Oscar Mercado? |
| Tyler Naquin | RF | Daniel Johnson? |
| Franmil Reyes | DH | Franmil Reyes |
You can look at the lineup on the right and see a few places where everything could click next year. The problem is that outcome merely puts them in the same position they were last year. Given that they're carrying a payroll below $40 million at the moment, it'd seem like Chris Antonetti would have leeway to solve one or two of these positions without prayer. It also wouldn't surprise me if they didn't. With the pandemic making leaguewide finances unclear and the Indians facing an impressive 40-man roster crunch over the next few seasons, they might use this year to evaluate who's staying and who can go, even if the lineup features rolling blackouts before and after Ramírez's spot.
So what do the White Sox do with Cleveland's intentions? A team truly gunning for a World Series would add, and then add again. Maybe Cleveland is bowing out and making it a two-team affair, but that actually mitigates the risk from adding payroll, because you're more likely to have something to show for aggression, even if performances don't perfectly align with salaries. Rick Hahn prefaced this offseason by saying marginal wins matter, and gunning for those marginal wins is usually rewarded in postseason revenue.
Alas, we're still unclear how many teams are making it into the postseason, and if October presents another bloated bracket for a revenue grab, then finishing second is really the only thing a team needs to do. Outside of a handful of teams, the bulk of the league seems to set the bar at the lowest respectable height, without a whole lot of ambition to clear it convincingly. We can't quite scream at the White Sox for failing to add when they're outpacing the rest of the league, but it'd sure be nice to see more action that aims to make afterthoughts of the Central's non-Minnesota teams.
(Photo by Keith Allison)
