With spring training on the horizon and most consequential free agents signed, it’s time to look back on the White Sox offseason and grade their transactions. This will be my seventh annual installment of the series.
I’m going to provide an individual evaluation of every move involving major league players or major league commitments. I’m excluding minor league signings, the Rule 5 draft, and waiver claims from the individual move assessments because even though some may have a some real impact, they generally boil down to either “no risk, but with upside” or “a little extra depth can’t hurt.” The next minor league signing that deserves an “F” will be the first. However, I will take these moves into account for the final grade.
Here are broad definitions I’ll use for the various letter grades. The rationale for the scale as a whole is that most moves that major league teams make are helpful to their goals and have a good deal of logic to them.
For some orientation, I would consider a perfectly average move to be somewhere on the C+/C borderline.
Grade A – This includes moves that either are extremely significant in pushing a team toward its goals, involve “beating the market” (i.e. fleecing another team in trade, signing a key free agent at a very noticeable discount, etc.), or are otherwise brilliant for their fit or use of resources. For example, the trade of Chris Sale earned an “A” for both being the most critical trade of the rebuild and accomplishing the difficult task of attaining fair value for one of baseball’s most valuable assets to ever be on the block.
Grade B – Like an “A” move, but less superlative. “B” moves represent above-average decisions and are generally remarkable in some way. I put the signing of Dallas Keuchel in this range (though it's worked out even better than that so far).
Grade C – This includes moves that are helpful to a team’s goals, but relative to other moves, are not notable for their scale, brilliance, fit, or cost-effectiveness. They are generally reasonable decisions and preferable over doing nothing. The trade for Ivan Nova prior to the 2019 season is a good benchmark for this range.
Grade D – While not all-out blunders, Grade “D” moves are not obvious steps in the right direction. This section of the scale includes either moves with questionable strategic fit, moves with a difficult-to-accept risk/reward ratio, moves with preferable and seemingly feasible alternatives, or total nothingburgers. The acquisition of Nomar Mazara prior to the 2020 season fell into this range due to its inadequacy to address a position needing major attention.
Grade F – “F” moves are actively harmful to a team’s goals, even if the degree of harm is small. The most prominent example of an “F” is non-tendering Tyler Flowers to sign Dioner Navarro, which would later demonstrate the cruel intersection of an awful thought process and unfortunate results.
Decisions to tender or non-tender a player along with choosing whether to pick up a team option are binary decisions, so they’ll be evaluated on a pass/fail basis.
Let us begin.
No 1: Option decisions
- Exercised $3.5 million option on UTIL Leury Garcia - Pass
- Declined $12 million option on DH Edwin Encarnacion - Pass
- Declined $7 million option on LHP Gio Gonzalez - Pass
Straightforward.
No. 2: Hired Tony La Russa as manager
I'll try to keep this brief as possible, since it's been discussed at length. From La Russa's long layoff since last managing, to his documented issues with evaluating talent, to the rumors that he's influenced offseason moves, to the clear indications that his hiring was at odds with the general manager's wishes, to the fact that he was hired a day after getting charged with his second DUI, to the evidence that he rubs some players in the game the wrong way, to past issues with expressive players like the ones in the White Sox dugout, there are no shortage of reasons that hiring Tony La Russa was a deeply concerning idea. There are those who like the hiring because of La Russa's past success. However, even that contingent should acknowledge that the most desirable managerial opening in baseball should have been filled by considering several qualified candidates via a thorough hiring process rather than the owner just doing a solid for his buddy.
The 2021 White Sox would be a very good team even with a cardboard cut-out as its manager, and they'll likely succeed despite this decision, but it's very hard to mount a good defense for hiring Tony La Russa, especially the way that the White Sox went about it.
Decision Grade: F
No. 3: Non-tender deadline decisions
Tendered contracts to:
- Lucas Giolito - Pass
- Reynaldo Lopez - Pass
- Evan Marshall - Pass
- Adam Engel - Pass
- Jace Fry - Pass
Non-tendered:
- Nomar Mazara - Pass
- Carlos Rodon - Pass
In recent years, this section of the offseason grades post has become rather boring. That's a good thing.
No. 4: Acquired RHP Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers for RHP Dane Dunning and LHP Avery Weems
The biggest failure of the Jeff Samardzija trade from the 2014-15 winter wasn't that Samardzija pitched poorly or that Marcus Semien and Chris Bassitt panned out in Oakland. Rather, it was that the White Sox gave away prospects to acquire one year of Samardzija and didn't assemble a roster for that one season that had much of a chance. Samardzija could have won the Cy Young in 2015 and one could have still made a strong case that the move was a waste (albeit a more fun one than what we got to see).
Right off the bat, the trade for Lynn avoids this serious problem. Lynn is going to augment a contending roster rather than merely give a lackluster team a slight glimpse of hope. He also comes to Chicago after two seasons of being one of the American League's best pitchers and gives the White Sox another arm they can be proud to throw in the postseason.
However, the move isn't without its concerns. The White Sox entered this offseason with a thinning prospect pool and a low payroll. Rather than flexing financial muscle that they've supposedly been saving for years, they dealt from the prospect pool to get an impact starter on a contract they decided they could afford. The remainder of the moves made this winter cast doubt upon whether the White Sox have given themselves the best chance to capitalize on their one season with their new ace.
The apparent payroll restrictions also complicate what this move will mean for years beyond 2021. The White Sox are a significantly better team on paper this year with Lynn rather than Dunning. There's no question about that. However, Dunning showed in his limited time with the White Sox that he could hold his own in The Show, and with raises due to the White Sox' core players in the coming years, it's fair to question how the Sox plan to fill Lynn's slot in the rotation once he leaves. Even if the Sox let all of their pending free agents walk, they'll be entering the 2021-22 offseason with a payroll right around the 2020-21 number (after accounting for arbitration raises and minimum salary players). Dunning could wind up being a cheap mid-rotation starter, and on Jerry Reinsdorf's tight budget, that would be a tough asset to lose.
In the end, this move is a gamble that swapping out Dunning for Lynn in this one season will be a deciding factor in getting the White Sox either into a Wild Card slot, into a division crown, or through a particular postseason series. If Lynn becomes that critical difference-maker, it'll be easy to make peace with whatever Dunning and Weems contribute beyond 2021. If not, well, Sox fans have a lot of experience in lamenting the loss of players that have moved on.
Decision Grade: C
No. 5: Signed RF Adam Eaton for one year, $8M with a club option for 2022
Right field was the single biggest hole in the White Sox lineup coming into the winter and with a top free agent on the market capable of playing right field, it seemed like a natural place for a team reaching the apex of its rebuild to make a big splurge after years of running low payrolls. Instead, the Sox let top-tier and mid-tier options pass them by, and they reunited with Eaton on the cheap.
The move was met with a good deal of vitriol from White Sox fans, largely stemming from the sour memories of L'Affaire LaRoche and the simple fact that he's not a premium player. After getting past the disappointment, there's a path to the move working out. Eaton's a reasonably strong option against right-handed pitching and Adam Engel gave the Sox a reason to trust him to handle lefties. Given good health from Eaton, it could be an efficient platoon.
However, the move carries with it a fair amount of risk. For one thing, Eaton was really bad in 2020, and now that he's 32 and not the defender he used to be, there's a lot of pressure on the bat. For another, he's a significant injury risk being added to an outfield that can't absorb much more of it. Eloy Jimenez is an IL stint waiting to happen, and if he goes down, the Sox will be down to one everyday outfielder, with Eaton and Leury Garcia's fragile bodies ready and waiting to compound the problem.
It's now 2021, and it's extremely important that the White Sox cash in on the opportunity after the years of hardship that got them to this point. It's perfectly reasonable to expect them to address their biggest hole with a premium solution rather than a bargain-bin retread.
Decision Grade: D
No. 6: Signed RHP Liam Hendriks for four years, $54 million
The White Sox have been one of the best teams in the game the last two seasons at holding late-inning leads, much of that thanks to Alex Colome's effectiveness in the closer role. Recognizing that Colome's pitch-to-contact ways might not yield a BABIP in the low-.200s for the third straight season, the Sox went with a more certain option to slam the door in the ninth by signing arguably the best closer in the game in Liam Hendriks. Thanks to the success of the late-inning relief of the 2019 and 2020 White Sox, Hendriks could be his usual excellent self and we wouldn't notice much of a year-over-year upgrade in the team's lead-preserving ability. However, with Colome's departure, the Sox were in danger of losing this significant competitive advantage they've enjoyed, and Hendriks is a great bet to maintain this edge in the late innings.
Hendriks is a superb reliever, so the question is less whether he's worth what the Sox will be paying him and more whether he was the best use of resources given the Sox' budget constraints and roster construction. The White Sox bullpen is significantly better with Hendriks than without him, but with Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, Codi Heuer, Evan Marshall, and Matt Foster in tow, the bullpen would likely have been a strength with a lower-profile addition.
The same could not have been said about the front of the rotation, the back of the rotation, right field, and to a lesser extent, designated hitter. While Lance Lynn is a strong solution for 2021 (albeit at the expense of Dunning), the other three were "solved" with Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton, and "no one", respectively. That leaves much to be desired. By signing Hendriks on what was apparently a limited budget, the Sox used the lion's share of their Reinsdorf-approved resources on a lesser area of need.
Decision Grade: C+
No. 7: Signed LHP Carlos Rodon for one year, $3 million
Dylan Cease posted the worst FIP in baseball last season, Michael Kopech hasn't pitched in a major league game since 2018, and Reynaldo Lopez' performance was so disturbing in 2020 that he was left off the postseason roster. Regardless of how much faith one has in Ethan Katz, that's far too much risk at the back of the rotation for a team that fashions itself a contender. Clearly, the Sox needed to add some help to this group, but their choice of bringing back Carlos Rodon just adds another pitcher with health and performance question marks. Rodon's better than nothing, because there's a better chance of two out of four risky pitchers being healthy and effective than two out of three. However, the market offered several more stable possibilities to fill this role without breaking the bank.
Decision Grade: D+
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
The White Sox are entering the fifth year of the process kicked off in the 2016-17 offseason, and after a fairly successful 2020, the time was ripe for the organization to try to take the next step. The Sox entered the winter with the obvious problem points of right field, the starting rotation, and position-player depth (particularly at DH). Ultimately, the strategy the White Sox chose to address these needs was flawed. Most of the monetary resources were directed towards the bullpen, an area of relative strength. Lynn, their most effective solution for the upcoming season, is set to depart after 2021, with raises to the Sox' core players consuming the payroll space that will be vacated by departing free agents and Dunning -- a potential solution to that budget crunch -- now playing for Texas. As things stand, both major projection systems place the Twins ahead of the White Sox. Regardless of who you want to blame for the shortcoming, that's disappointing for the White Sox organization.
Since the front office has been unable to push the team over the hump, it's going to be up to the players to flip that script. The White Sox can yet realize the immense promise of their rebuild, but it's going to require players like Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Nick Madrigal, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech to make good on their upside. That's a pretty good set of players to count on, but with flimsy depth and a litany of injury-prone players, the organization has made the margin for error quite thin.
It would have not cost the team much more to invest in more stable options than the rather risky retreads it signed to address right field and starting pitching depth. Similarly, it would have not been overly expensive to add another bat to the DH pool to hedge against potential struggles from Andrew Vaughn in a year in which every win counts. Vaughn's a very strong bat prospect, but the Sox saw a couple years ago with Eloy Jimenez that adjustment periods from even extremely promising players can lose a team games. They didn't care back then, but they sure as heck should in 2021.
Beyond the team's depth concerns, the Sox yet again shied away from the top of the market. Players like George Springer, Trevor Bauer, and Marcell Ozuna could have been big helps to the Sox over the next half-decade. The three year rebuild during which spending was nonexistent and payroll was significantly slashed was supposed to help the White Sox afford this type of player. Instead, the team's spending habits seem unchanged from prior to 2017, leaving fans to wonder whether resetting the payroll during the rebuild did anything of note besides line the pockets of ownership. The White Sox did sign a legitimate star player on a bargain deal last winter in Yasmani Grandal, but the allure of the "bargain deal" part was the promise that it would enable the Sox to make another big move. It never came.
The White Sox made incremental improvements to their roster this winter, and the 2021 White Sox should be a good, competitive team. However, painful years of lean payrolls and losing were invested to get the roster to this point. As a final push to make the White Sox favorites in the AL Central, let alone the American League, this winter fell short of expectations.
Offseason Grade: C-
(Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)
