Last year, the White Sox tried to add their own version of Nelson Cruz by signing Edwin Encarnación, a 37-year-old slugger who averaged 37 homers over the previous eight seasons. Homers weren't the problem for Encarnación, who hit 10 of them over 44 games. He just produced nine other hits total, good for a line of .157/.250/.377. Only the shortened season keeps him from being a true member of Rick Hahn's Hall of Duds.
The White Sox could have added their own version of Nelson Cruz this winter by signing Nelson Cruz himself. He lingered on the market into February thanks to the uncertainty about universal DH and Cruz's more advanced age (if he were both one day earlier, this would be his age-41 season).
Instead, the Twins have reportedly retained Cruz for just about the same amount the Sox signed Encarnación for in 2020.
- Encarnación: One year, $12 million
- Cruz: One year, $13 million
There are concerns about Cruz, in the sense that he would limit the White Sox's roster flexibility and require Eloy Jiménez to wrestle left field to a draw. Also, as Lucas Giolito's work through Codify suggests, Cruz isn't exactly the hardest guy to game-plan for. There's a sizable chance that aging hits him hard, whenever it decides to stop pulling punches.
On the other side, Cruz has hit .308/.394/.626 with 57 homers over his two years in Minnesota, a 54-homer pace over 162 games. He also saves his most severe punishment for the Sox, clubbing them at a .408/.491/.837 clip since the start of the 2019 season. He might look bad for a game at a time, but compared to Encarnación at the time the White Sox came calling, any signs of a slowing bat are weaker.
The Twins' dillydallying reminded me of 2010, when the White Sox decided they couldn't use Jim Thome's .864 OPS. Minnesota swooped in and signed Thome for $1.5 million just mostly so Thome couldn't hurt them. Thome appeared to be crowded out, but he eventually found regular action after Justin Morneau's concussion woes started, and his 1.039 OPS over 108 games probably decided the division.
Cruz isn't the financial no-brainer Thome represented, but the divisional stakes remain the same. With Cruz returning to Minnesota, the Sox have to hope Father Time finally comes off the inactive list, or that other pitchers are able to implement and execute on heat maps as well as Giolito. I'm not sure which one is more likely.
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A couple other Minnesota notes:
No. 1: Cruz's contract means the Twins have responded to the White Sox's challenge in terms of additional spending on the 2021 roster.
| WHITE SOX | CONTRACT | TWINS | CONTRACT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | $8M | JA Happ | $8M |
| Adam Eaton | $7M | Andrelton Simmons | $10.5M |
| Liam Hendriks | $11M | Nelson Cruz | $13M |
| Carlos Rodón | $3M | Hansel Robles | $2M |
| TOTAL | $29M | TOTAL | $33.5M |
The White Sox still lead the Twins in Opening Day payroll, something like $128M to $120M according to Cot's.
No. 2: Old friend Dan Hayes says Cruz is supposedly recruiting Alex Colomé to join the Twins, which is a move that doesn't scare me. It's not because I think Colomé's peripherals are going to start suddenly catching up with him, as I wouldn't have made such an argument if the Sox re-signed the closer that did wonderful work for them the past two seasons.
It's more that Colome's cutter-heavy arsenal makes him more effective against lefties than righties. The splits from his time with the White Sox have a 100-point OPS gap:
- LHB: .163/.237/.277
- RHB: .201/.283/.346
That Minnesota had a left-handed closer in Taylor Rogers played a big part in the White Sox splitting the season series. Rogers appeared in only two of the 10 games against the Sox and took the loss in both of them. Rogers' splits are more severe than Colomé's, and it should be a net positive for the games involving teams besides the Sox, but just like their signing of Happ, other solutions would pose more of a direct threat.
(Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire)
