There’s no bigger hedge in writing, no cheaper way to diminish the risk of a poorly aging paragraph, than to preface a piece with a postmodern critique of the premise itself.

For instance, look here: Prospect rankings are always kinda pointless, right? Now take the exercise and remove the entire context that we’ve previously used to evaluate players against outside competition, since the COVID-19 cancellation of Minor League Baseball kept most such players out of game action. Doesn’t that make them pointlesser? Do our attempts to bring order to the orderless invite God’s scorn?

(Now, read my list of prospects, which I’ll later pull excerpts from whenever observations turn prescient.)

Fortunately, I’ve installed my own emergency door out of bad takes. I’m not a Prospect Guy. I’m a Guy Who Watches How One Organization Drafts And Develops Its Prospects. I can’t convincingly describe swing changes or arm actions before anybody else. I’ve just spent a lot of time reading or hearing about changes and tweaks, and watching for which ones actually result in meaningful differences.

So my prospect rankings aren’t exactly an assessment of which players will have better MLB careers, or MLB careers at all. They’re more an assessment of how integral they are to the White Sox’s plans, to helping them fill out a real farm system and pipeline, for trade value. Jimmy Lambert will probably reach the big leagues again, while the White Sox’s high school pitchers might not make it to Double-A. Yet whose talent and success feels far more integral to the White Sox achieving important things? What would be lost by not having them in the system? That’s kinda what I’m getting at.

The best part is that I can’t really be wrong this way. If one of the White Sox’s aggressive young bats is undermined by a lack of plate discipline, or a polished prospect still battles a long learning curve at the highest level, ’twas ever thus. If one of the White Sox’s aggressive young bats hones in his approach and discovers a hit tool, the White Sox improved more than I got worse. Heads, I win. Tails, we both win.

Now, read my list of prospects, which I’ll later pull excerpts from whenever observations turn prescient.

No. 1: Andrew Vaughn

WHY HE’S HERE: Because he’s the toughest out in the whole organization, and he plays first base at a level where nobody complains about him being out there. Prospect-ranking outlets who usually issue warnings about overvaluing righty/righty first basemen are waiving their objections and giving in to the skill.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: He’s a right-handed first baseman who can’t play anywhere else, and one can find decent first basemen on the open market. He’d command a high value, but he could help the White Sox add a high-impact player at a position where they have fewer of them.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: The White Sox carried Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko on the same roster for years without much of an issue, David Wells aside. The White Sox have a hard time finding guys who take their walks. Somebody with his plate discipline is a precious resource. Never let go.

No. 2: Michael Kopech

WHY HE’S HERE: The times we’ve seen him pitch in a White Sox uniform have all been a pleasure, save his last start in 2018, when his elbow was barking. He pitched with a surprising amount of efficiency when he wasn’t being rained out. He returned to the mound in the original spring training hitting 101. There isn’t another starting pitcher in the system like him.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: He’s two seasons removed from his last MLB appearance, so the White Sox are used to what it feels like to forge on without him. Kopech has to re-establish himself as a consistent presence, and since absences often beget absences, one can talk themselves into selling a year too early than a year too late.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: There isn’t another starting pitcher in the system like him, and it feels like they’d be selling low on a pitcher with high-end stuff and no physical concerns.

No. 3: Nick Madrigal

WHY HE’S HERE: He passed his first test, hitting .340/.376/.369 around a separated shoulder on a slide. He had issues tempering his aggression on the basepaths and slowing down his motions at second base, but it’d be worse if he looked like a polished defender who couldn’t get on base to run into outs. In fact, he basically just replaced that guy. It’s easy to see how Madrigal can be a couple of levels better once he sees how he fits in.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: There were comparable second basemen on the market for reasonable rates. Maybe they don’t strike out as seldomly as Madrigal, but I’d accept slightly higher K rates for a lot more ISO. He’s been so reliant on a high motor for his entire career that he may not figure out how to reliably throttle down.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: A walk isn’t always as good as a hit, and when Madrigal becomes extra annoying with runners in scoring position (.370/.393/.370), his fourth-overall draft status makes a lot more sense. If there are comparable players on the market, that’d mean that it’d be harder to trade him for equal value, so you may as well see if he can become greater than the sum of his parts.

No. 4: Garrett Crochet

WHY HE’S HERE: He passed the first part of his Chris Sale Crash Course, throwing six scoreless outings with relative ease despite his 2020 previously comprising just one start at Tennessee and work at the White Sox’s alternate training site. He sits 100, he has a slider, and when MLB hitters weren’t raving about his stuff after games, their faces were doing the talking.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: His velocity dropped four ticks during Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, making it natural to brace for Tommy John surgery in his future. He’s managed to avoid it thus far, but he doesn’t have a rich history of workhorsery. The White Sox are good at developing relievers, so maybe using a top-15 pick on a guy is a luxury they can do without, especially if you’re skeptical that the White Sox are truly keeping the starting door open, and Crochet would be able to walk through it.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: If Crochet can stay healthy, then he’s a terrific choice for where the White Sox are, both in terms of their win curve and a second pandemic-altered season. He has all the makings of a high-leverage weapon in a season where all those marginal wins matter, and if there are no reliable ways to build a starter from the ground up in 2021, then the White Sox can focus on their immediate needs without guilt.

No. 5: Jared Kelley

WHY HE’S HERE: The White Sox might have drafted two first-round talents in 2020 by ponying up and paying Kelley $3 million in the second. The pandemic limited him to just 12 innings, and if he had the chance to throw deeper into the spring, there’s a reasonable chance that the White Sox would’ve had to pick him in the first or lose him forever.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: He’s a big-bodied high school pitching prospect. He throws 100, but a reliable breaking ball hasn’t yet come naturally to him. He’s a big-bodied high school pitching prospect who throws 100.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: He throws 100 with an advanced changeup, so he’s not just a flamethrower. Given that all sorts of potentially interested teams weren’t interested enough to meet his price, he’ll have to establish his value in the minors to refresh memories and change minds. It’s hard to win the natural attrition issues of matriculating prep arms if you diminish the supply before they get a chance to prove themselves.

No. 6: Yoelqui Céspedes

WHY HE’S HERE: Considering MLB Pipeline ranked Céspedes the No. 1 international prospect, I gave some thought to ranking him behind Vaughn. There isn’t a position player the rest of the way who compares to Céspedes’ supposed combination of broad skills and supposed high-minors readiness, especially if his physical transformation makes him a stronger hitter since everybody saw him last.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: The word “supposed” is more than a mere qualifier, because it’s hard to get a sense of a guy who has been out of action due to defecting and the pandemic. He’s 23, so if he encounters any early struggles or the affiliates lose time to COVID issues or otherwise, he’ll have to play catch-up.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: You can knock the White Sox for a lot of things, but they generally evaluate this kind of talent correctly.

No. 7: Matthew Thompson
No. 8: Andrew Dalquist

WHY THEY’RE HERE: They’ve been tied at the hip since the White Sox drafted them in successive rounds in 2019, and it’s too much work to break that bond. Thompson tends to get the nod for having more potent stuff, but Dalquist’s reports still suggest he’s better at bringing his best stuff to the mound on a reliable basis.

WHY YOU’D TRADE THEM: They’re high school pitching prospects. They have decent building blocks, but they’re a long way off without stuff that immediately qualifies as high end, and the Sox don’t have much experience in grooming such pitchers over the long haul.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: The same reasons as mentioned for Kelley — it’s nice to see the Sox invest in teen talent, but a team needs strength in numbers to see rewards from it. The early strides are encouraging, especially for Thompson.

No. 9: Norge Vera

WHY HE’S HERE: On last year’s list, I saved the 10th spot for “Future Cuban.” Vera happened to be the first of two, so internal consistency demands I should stick to my guns. This is especially true given the outline of the pitcher provided Marco Paddy — 20 years old, sits in the low-to-mid-90s, has a couple of breaking ball options and a developing changeup. I’d consider ranking him above Thompson and Dalquist if the White Sox would ever make him official.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: He’s the equivalent of a high school pitching prospect, and while Paddy always tells you what an international prospect can do, we’ll have to learn what he can’t do, or what really needs work.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: He contributes to the strength-in-numbers part of trying to develop pre-college pitching talent. We haven’t seen the White Sox produce a Cuban pitcher the way the White Sox have routinely developed Cuban position players, but I can buy that they’d have a similar edge in identifying talent here.

No. 10: Bryan Ramos

WHY HE’S HERE: From this point of the list onward, I’m more confident in the Sox producing an impact contributor from the prep and international ranks than I am from their old draft strategy. So let’s go with Ramos, who hit .277/.353/.415 with reasonable walk (8.7 percent) and strikeout (20.5 percent) rates for a 17-year-old making his pro debut in the AZL in 2019. He doesn’t seem like he’ll have to shift off third base either, which is another plus. The White Sox have signaled faith, inviting him to the instructional league with plans to start him in Kannapolis this season.

WHY YOU’D TRADE HIM: He’s a long ways away, he has aggressive tendencies that might blow up with a full-season affiliate, and if young talent is winning the day, he might be the kind of player who can be traded with his value at the highest.

WHY YOU’D REGRET IT: He’s one of many players who didn’t get a chance to make himself more exciting with the loss of the 2020 season. The Sox could stand to be more transactional, but if they don’t want to deal, or if nobody places a respectable value on what they have, then it’ll be fun watching a wide array of talent that can actually be called “precocious.” Jake Burger is not precocious, jovial though he may be. Ramos is very precocious. It’s pleasant.

Honorable mentions

BENYAMIN BAILEY: It’s easy to love 52 walks against 40 strikeouts in 55 games as a 17-year-old, even if he’s in the DSL, and all the production around it. The lack of stateside exposure, and that some of his 2019 success lay in speed that might not be there as he gets larger, keeps my enthusiasm in check.

BRYCE BUSH AND JOSE RODRIGUEZ: They’ve both delivered bursts of excitement similar to Ramos, but their flaws are a little more pronounced early. Bush had to move off third base and struck out in bunches, while Rodriguez succeeds with extreme aggression that tends to get used against a player in short order.

JIMMY LAMBERT AND JONATHAN STIEVER: I’d like Stiever more than Lambert if he regained his fastball velocity from 2019. Based on their 2020 showings, I’d like Lambert more than Stiever if Lambert didn’t injure his forearm during his attempt to sustain his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Let them fight it out this year.

MICKER ADOLFO: He’s the only outfield prospect who can pull the ball in the air on a regular basis, but the rest of his game hasn’t been allowed to come together due to all the time he’s missed.

LUIS GONZÁLEZ AND BLAKE RUTHERFORD: González gets the edge because he can cover center field, and he might be able to get on base at a decent clip. Until we see Rutherford get lift during real games, it’s hard to see a job for him.

GAVIN SHEETS: He’s the very large embodiment of the old White Sox draft strategy’s limits. The search for certainty led to a narrow brand of success that might trap him in Triple-A unless he can learn the outfield or get his apparent strength to show up more in games.

JAKE BURGER: It was three springs ago that we looked forward to seeing whether his attempts to hit fewer grounders would pay off. Now I’m just looking forward to seeing him play, period.