2021 MLB Draft Report: A New #1 Pick Contender

This past weekend was a crazy one for College Baseball. Former #1 Ole Miss lost their weekend series against Central Florida. Friday night also saw Vanderbilt, Louisville, Mississippi State, Miami, and Florida State lose. An eye-opening occurrence as it's tough to gauge at the start how good some programs are. In my opinion, some programs are a bit over ranked to start 2021. Thus the "upsets" we witnessed this past weekend. Maybe they aren't upsets, but lesser-known programs are just better. Time will tell. 

Let's get into this week's 2021 MLB Draft notes. 

A new contender for #1 pick

Last week, I wrote about how I thought Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are the top two prospects in this draft class. After this weekend, I think I would still have Leiter ranked first overall, followed by Rocker. Then I started to watch more film on prep shortstop Jordan Lawler. I like what I see. He's a well-rounded prospect that shows a lot of promise at the plate. There is more work to be done on my part before I would rank Lawler above Leiter and Rocker at this stage. 

This week, ESPN" s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic's Keith Law released their Top 30 MLB Draft lists. McDaniel has Lawler as his top-ranked prospect, and Law lists Lawler as his second-best behind Leiter. 

It got me thinking looking at the draft board from a Pittsburgh Pirates perspective. If the MLB Draft were tomorrow, who would they select #1 overall? 

Ke'Bryan Hayes will handle third base for the Pirates this upcoming season and seems to be talented enough to build a new core around. That would lend itself to selecting Leiter or Rocker, who may only need a couple of years of minor league refinement to join the Pirates rotation. Perhaps that would help turnaround the Pirates' fortunes in the NL Central, which may only get weaker with the Chicago Cubs contemplating their next move. 

If you don't like the Pirates' next wave of prospects, then maybe it would be better if Pittsburgh took the best prep player available. That direction would buy more time in creating a new competitive score for the Pirates front office. 

It'll be a tough decision for Ben Cherington to make. We still have four more months before he has to pull the trigger, but I think it's essential to include Lawler in discussions for #1 overall. If Lawler is selected first overall, a team that benefits greatly would be the Detroit Tigers. At pick #3, they'd get either Leiter or Rocker falling to them. 

Stock rising: Gunnar Hoglund, Ole Miss

It wasn't a great weekend for Ole Miss, but Gunnar Hoglund was yet again impressive. Hoglund struck out ten batters in seven innings while allowing only two earned runs on six hits. I liked Hoglund's outing because he mixed his secondary pitches more against UCF's lineup. In the first inning, Hoglund threw 20 pitches with a breakdown of ten fastballs, nine sliders, and one curveball. He struck out the side getting two of those punchouts with his fastball. 

Both McDaniel and Law have Hoglund in their Top 10, and I think it's just a matter of time before other lists start falling in line. Ole Miss has Doug Nikhazy starting on Fridays, so we might not see a Hoglund vs. Rocker matchup, but instead a Hoglund vs. Leiter duel. Depending on how well Hoglund pitches against SEC foes, he could be a realistic Top-15 pick in this draft class and out of the White Sox reach at pick 22. 

Stock dropping: Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest

As I wrote last week, I was most interested in watching Ryan Cusick against Notre Dame to see if he would throw more breaking pitches. The result was a mixed bag. The command is still not excellent with any of his breaking pitches. If there are runners on base, the Wake Forest coaching staff is quick to abandon those pitches in favor of Cusick's fastball. 

The velocity range based on the broadcast was wide as Cusick hit 93 mph to 100 mph. Just like his season opener start, Cusick would get a 60-grade on his fastball as it's the only pitch he has command of at this moment. However, being too dependent on the fastball got him in trouble in the first inning. 

With a runner on third and two outs, Cusick was ahead 0-2 on Notre Dame slugger Niko Kavadas. Instead of a breaking pitch or changeup to throw off Kavadas, Cusick went back to his fastball. The result was a 100-mph center-cut pitch that Kavadas took out to deep center for a two-run homer. 

Cusick would walk the next batter on four pitches and only got out of the first inning thanks to a nifty player by his catcher throwing behind the runner for a pickoff. 

Notre Dame would hit another home run off Cusick and tagged him for five runs (four earned). Ultimately, Cusick's final line looks good as he punched out 12 batters in 5.1 innings of work. From a draft perspective, he's still just a one-pitch pitcher at this moment and not much else—a project for whichever team would consider taking him in the first round. There's debate if Cusick is a first-round talent. Law has Cusick ranked 9th in his draft board, while McDaniel has him at 44th. 

Games I'm watching this weekend:

#3 Louisville vs. #11 Georgia Tech:

I might have a draft crush on Louisville catcher Henry Davis. The early word out of Louisville is that Cardinals 3B Alex Binelas stock is dropping. A big reason why is his terrible start to the season. Binelas is currently 2-for-31 at the plate and a .065/.189/.097 slash line. Pinellas was considered a potential Top-10 pick and one of the best college bats in this draft class. He'll look to get back on track against an impressive Georgia Tech squad. 

Boston College vs. Wake Forest: 

I saw a bit of Boston College CF Sal Frelick against Duke this past weekend. He went 6-for-14 at the plate with a home run, double, and three RBI. I'd like to see how Frelick fares against premium velocity, which he should see against Ryan Cusick. 

Florida A&M vs. #4 Florida: 

Jud Fabian is flexing the power as he already has four home runs, but strikeouts remain an issue (31.7% K%). I'd like to see more of his plate appearances to see the swing-and-miss problem while also getting more looks at Gators catcher Nathan Hickey. In eight games, Hickey is hitting .313/.410/.688 with three homers. 

NCBWA Top 25 Poll (3/2/2021)