2021 MLB Draft Report: Ty Madden, Sal Frelick, and Henry Davis moving up draft boards

I have to apologize for this week’s MLB Draft Report being a day late, but it’s for a good reason. Yesterday, Kim and I closed on our first home! After a decade of living on the North Side of Chicago, I’m finally putting my roots into the Bridgeport ground. We are very excited to be just a 15-minute walk away from Guaranteed Rate Field. Perhaps we’ll have Sox Machine Patreon meetups on our rooftop deck soon.

Last week, I mentioned that Henry Davis was becoming my draft crush in this upcoming class. Well, after watching him against Georgia Tech last weekend, it’s official. Davis’s receiving skills have improved, his arm is still strong as ever, and his swing is impressive. MLB teams that rely more on the metrics than what their scouts are reporting will have Davis pretty high on their draft boards based on his in-game exit velocities. The Louisville catcher has room to improve his blocking technique, but I’m confident Davis is a first-round talent. I’m just not sure anymore if he’ll make it to the White Sox at Pick 22.

Davis wasn’t the only draft prospect who had a great weekend. Here are a couple more that see their stock rise and notes on two players who might lose their first-round grade.

Texas RHP Ty Madden dazzles against Houston

Before the season, I think it would be fair to say that the top three college starting pitchers for this draft class were Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, and Jaden Hill. Just outside of that group was Ty Madden. After this past Friday night against Houston, Madden might have moved past Hill on some boards.

Watching the film, Madden displayed three pitches and mixed them well together. He’s got a big fastball with a good command that pounds the outside corner against right-handed hitters — frequently getting 97-mph readings on the TV broadcast. Madden pairs that big fastball with a spike slider that appears to fall off the table within the pitch tunnel. Hitters were frequently whiffing against that pitch in the dirt. Madden also threw his changeup a few times that faded inside against righties. I like that pitch for Madden, and it’s a more advanced third offering that many college starting pitchers I’ve watched this season have thrown.

The final line against Houston is impressive. A complete-game shutout on 110 pitches (25 swing and misses), only allowing two hits, two walks, and striking out 14 batters. In his last two outings, Madden has pitched 16 innings with just three hits and walks allowed while striking out 25. A nice bounceback from his less than stellar Opening Day performance against Mississippi State.

Factor in that Hill bombed in his last start (0.1 IP 5 H 8 ER 2 BB 0 K); I have Madden as the #3 college starting pitcher in this class which puts him firmly in the Top 10.

Sal Frelick keeps impressing vs. Auburn

COVID wiped out last weekend’s Boston College vs. Wake Forest series. I was looking forward to watching Sal Frelick face Ryan Cusick as I thought it would be the right measuring stick for both prospects. It also happened that Auburn’s original matchup last week also had to back out for COVID reasons. Thus we got an impromptu BC vs. Auburn weekend series.

Despite the detour, BC impressed in their Friday game, beating the Tigers, 8-2. The highlight was Frelick hitting two home runs, and the outfielder/second baseman provided more dramatics on Sunday. Rivaling the “Memorial Day Massacre” that White Sox fans know all too well from the 2016 meltdown in Kansas City, Auburn suffered a similar fate. Up 9-1, the Tigers blew an eight-run lead and lost in extras. Tying the game was Frelick, who hit a mammoth three-run homer that would pair nicely with Celine Dion’s “My heart will go on” in the background.

There’s doubt within the scouting and analytics community of what Frelick’s future value will be, and I think that’s mostly due to his size. He’s 5’9” and often draws comparisons to Andrew Benintendi, which is not a terrible thing. Benintendi has been a fine player, but if that’s Frelick’s future, would a team want to sign him to a $3+ million bonus?

After the Auburn series, Frelick has four home runs, matching his Freshman year total, and has an eye-opening slash line of .476/.531/.876. At this pace, Frelick will thrust himself into the Golden Spikes and Dick Howser running for Best College Player of the Year discussion.

Fingers crossed that this weekend’s series between Boston College and Louisville happens. If Frelick continues his torrid pace, I’m not sure how anyone can diminish what he’s doing. I imagine many MLB teams within the Top 25 picks will start moving him up on their boards.

Ranking the Louisville Trio

At the start of 2021, I thought Louisville had three first-round talents in 3B Alex Binelas, OF Levi Usher, and C Henry Davis. That would have been the ranking order, with many believing that Binelas had Top-10 pick potential.

After 12 games, I think Louisville only has one first-round talent on their roster.

I already mentioned Davis earlier. He's hitting .381/.491/.643 with just a 5.7% strikeout rate. One surprise is that Davis is 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. Not that matters much in MLB anymore, but Davis is a better runner than expected.

The Cardinals issue early this season, and why they are 8-4, is the offense is lacking punch. That's because both Usher and Binelas are not carrying their weight. Starting with Binelas, this past weekend in Atlanta against Georgia Tech was the best offensive series of the season. He went 4-for-15 with three doubles.

After going 1-for-3 against Murray State, Binelas has a four-game hitting streak which is good to see. What's not pretty is his slash line which is a dismal .143/.246/.224. After watching the series against Georgia Tech, I can understand why. Binelas is having trouble producing hard-hit contact (95+ mph exit velocity) and hitting many ground balls. It reminds me of watching Eric Hosmer when the Padre's first baseman is going through a rut.

What might be causing the power outage issues is a hand injury that's been bugging Binelas for the last year. Early in 2020, Binelas broke the hamate bone in his right hand. White Sox fans know too well the impact of that kind of injury (Gordon Beckham, Adam LaRoche) and how it takes a while for a hitter to regain their strength. Reports out of Louisville suggest that past injury is not impacting him anymore. Still, I'm having a hard time buying that. Binelas was supposed to be a 60-grade power bat who could play average defense at third base. Now he looks to me as someone who has 40-grade power, and I wouldn't recommend any team giving him more than $2 million in a signing bonus. Until we see more power from Binelas, I can't justify giving him a first-round grade.

Usher had a lot of hype coming into the season as a toolsy outfielder that did a bit of everything. His level of athleticism was impressive against Georgia Tech. A plus-runner (60+ grade), Usher is 13-for-13 in stolen bases, has the range to play center field, and a strong enough arm to man right field. That gives a prospect a high floor.

I have doubts about his bat. After a 1-for-12 weekend against Georgia Tech, I'm not sure if Usher has the contact skills to merit a 50-grade, and boy, the strikeouts are an issue at a 27.4% rate. The slash line is also not impressive at .233/.353/.349. I'd like to see what a good weekend looks like from Usher to determine what could be his future potential. Like Binelas, I would consider Usher a second-round pick.

In the preseason, the draft rankings would have been Binelas, Usher, and Davis.

Now, it's Davis, Usher, and Binelas.

Games I'm watching this weekend

#7 South Carolina vs. #19 Texas: Will Crowe leads the nation with 8 home runs and gets a chance to face Ty Madden on Friday. 

#21 Boston College vs. #12 Louisville: Two risers in Frelick and Davis, and hopefully, bounceback weekends from Binelas and Usher. 

#2 Vanderbilt vs. #10 Oklahoma State: The Vandy Boys, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, get a true test against the Cowboys.

NCBWA Top 25 Poll - March 9, 2021