In the last 2021 MLB Draft Report, I updated my Top 5 Rankings for pitchers, hitters, and prospects to follow for the Chicago White Sox at Pick 22. For this week’s update, injury news and poor performances shuffle some players down draft boards.
Jaden Hill Out for the Season with UCL Tear
Terrible news came out of Baton Rouge this week as RHP Jaden Hill has suffered a UCL Tear and is out for the rest of 2021. Considering the recovery period, Hill would also miss time going into 2022, whether that be Spring Training or the first month of college if he decided to return. UCL injuries are always concerning, but consider that Hill missed all of 2019 because of a shoulder injury, and many injury red flags are surrounding Hill.
This injury casts doubt if any team in the first round would be willing to fork over a big enough signing bonus to select Hill, sign him under slot, and hope that when he recovers to be the pitcher that still throws 98-mph with a plus-changeup. That’s certainly a strategy you will hear more about as the MLB Draft nears. I think it’s too risky to pull off such a maneuver in the first round. If you’re a team like the Chicago White Sox, maybe you’d entertain such a possibility using the second-round pick on Hill. Seeing that the Sox have a terrible track record for second-round picks, it might be worth a gamble if Hill is still available.
Hill’s final numbers in 2021 were 29.2 IP 29 H 23 R 22 ER 12 BB 25 K.
Jud Fabian Keeps Striking Out
Florida outfielder, Jud Fabian, is dropping down draft boards like an anvil. Once thought of as a Top-5 pick in the preseason, Fabian is undoubtedly within the White Sox range at Pick 22 because strikeouts are a significant issue. At a 36.2% K clip, many teams will be scared away from giving Fabian a Top-15 signing bonus. There is also a thought that Fabian, who will only be 20 years old on draft day, could return to Florida for the 2022 season.
In his last seven games, Fabian is 2-for-27 with 17 strikeouts. He’s a talented outfielder who can stick in center field, but I wonder if he still sticks in the first round. Then again, the White Sox are no stranger in making investments on outfielders with contact issues.
Alex Binelas No Longer Playing Third Base
Just like Fabian, Louisville’s Alex Binelas stock has dropped significantly with his performance in 2021. Once thought of as a Top-10 pick, Binelas is hitting .212/.312/.442 with 12 BB to 27 K this season. If the MLB Draft were tomorrow, I don’t think Binelas would be selected in the first round. Binelas is still having trouble making hard contact, and I wonder if his past hamate injury never healed fully.
In addition to the hitting woes, Louisville’s coach Dan McDonnel has moved Binelas off third base, and he’s now making starts at first base. Some scouts/analysts thought long-term Binelas would play at first base, but I can’t imagine this sudden change of position will help his draft stock.
Keep an eye on RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)
After an impressive start against FIU on February 26, Sam Bachman didn’t return to the mound until March 20 and hasn’t thrown more than four innings in any appearance since. While that is a concern, Miami is ramping up Bachman’s workload to return as a starter, and they are hopeful he can reach the five-inning mark against Western Michigan this upcoming weekend.
Setting aside the workload concerns, Bachman did touch 100.8 mph with his four-seamer against FIU. Speaking to those that have seen Bachman in-person this season, he often sits around 96 mph but can hit triple digits. This type of heat is paired with a slider and is an effective strikeout combination. Like most college pitchers, Bachman’s changeup needs more refinement.
It’s worth following Bachman looking at how this year’s Chicago White Sox pitching staff is assembled. Both Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon are throwing 96+ mph in their starts, and the bullpen consists of six pitchers who all throw plus-heat. I’m not 100% sure if Bachman long-term is an MLB-caliber starting pitcher, but his fastball and slider are. If available at Pick 22, it wouldn’t shock me if Bachman is under serious consideration as he fits with what the White Sox are doing today.
Games I’m Watching This Weekend
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan - Friday, April 9: See above for Sam Bachman note.
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss - Two of the best teams this year squaring off. Should be a dandy of a series.
No Top 25 NCBWA Poll this week as the association lost a dear member with Russ Anderson's recent passing.
