2021 MLB Draft Report: Top 100 List

Last week, I released the Sox Machine Average MLB Draft Database, and we already have our first big update as Baseball America released their updated Top 400 prospect list. Below is the updated Top 100 list based on the average rankings from major publications (MLBPipeline, Baseball America, The Athletic, and FanGraphs). 

Average MLB Draft Rankings Database

I often group prospects by what round I could see them drafted, but there are always surprises. For example, I thought Jared Kelley was a first-rounder. Other teams didn’t feel the same way I did, and the White Sox came away as the benefactors signing him in the second round. I say sign because, at that point, it was about which team was willing to meet Kelley’s bonus ask to forgive his scholarship. With 26 prep players making up the Top 50 prospects, I imagine another first-round caliber talent coming out of high school could drop to the second round. 

Looking at the Top 100 list, if you just paired the prospect ranking at the White Sox draft position in the first three rounds, I think it’s a strong start. 

• First Round: Pick 22 - Izaac Pacheco, 3B
• Second Round: Pick 57 - Dylan Smith, RHP
• Third Round: Pick 94 - Irving Carter, RHP

I mocked Pacheco to the White Sox last week, and even with the updated rankings, he’s still the player I would target at pick 22. 

For the second and third-round picks, I have different targets from the rankings list. 

Second Round Target: Malakhi Knight

If you recall from my College Opening Day post, Malakhi Knight was part of my Jimmy Osborn Good Looking Kid watchlist. A prep outfielder that has enticing tools but raw hitting ability hidden away in the Pacific Northwest. Committed to UCLA, I imagine it will take more than the second-round bonus slot to sign Knight in July. 

Shooter Hunt of Prep Baseball Report made the trek to Seattle watching Knight in person and provided new video. 

Knight wastes no time announcing his presence w/ this double (4.5 on turn).

Fell behind 0-2. Changed planes & kept the barrel in the zone on this one after a weaker swing on same pitch before. #MLBDraft https://t.co/69yjrHvdRz pic.twitter.com/8G6h9o8E9K

— Shooter Hunt (@ShooterHunt) May 5, 2021

Speed times still have Knight between 60 and 70 on the scouting scale. I think there are enough tools to see if Knight would be willing to sign for $2 million to forgo attending UCLA. In 2020, Pick 57 had a bonus slot value of $1,243,600. That might increase a little in 2021, but the White Sox drafting Knight in the second round, I estimate, will be at least $700,000 over slot. That’s if Knight doesn’t go in the Top 40 picks. 

Third Round Target: Mat Nelson

My dreams of Henry Davis being available to the White Sox at Pick 22 died a long time ago, but I still it would be worthwhile for them to select a catcher within the first three rounds. NC State’s Luca Tresh (Rank 35) and Memphis Hunter Goodman (Rank 54) would be good second-round targets. The name I’m seeing continuing to rise and grabbing people’s attention is Florida State’s, Mat Nelson. 

Nelson leads all NCAA D-I with 20 home runs and ties Texas Tech’s Jace Jung with 57 RBIs. His current slash line is .341/.445/.867. With these types of numbers, why isn’t Nelson a first-rounder? There are concerns about swing-and-miss with Nelson’s bat, as he does have 38 strikeouts in 165 plate appearances (23% K-rate). 

Defensively, there are consistency concerns in performance. Nelson needs to improve his receiving and will need time in the minors to develop that skill. I’ve seen Nelson block well in one game and struggle in others. With professional coaching, Nelson can improve in both of these areas to be serviceable on defense. The arm is strong and isn’t a concern. 

For a team like the White Sox, who have invested in resources to help Zack Collins improve defensively, Nelson could be a good target. Despite the swing-and-miss part, the power from Nelson’s bat is legit and could grow along with the White Sox prep pitchers.