MLB updated and expanded their latest Draft Prospect list to 200. With the update, they are now listing prep SS Marcelo Mayer as their top prospect.
I get a little heartbroken watching Mayer because he was our old friend Jim Osborn’s (Lil Jimmy) favorite in this draft class. He’s the ultimate “Good looking kid” prospect. Mayer has a terrific swing that’s balanced and has plus-power potential. He’s slick at the shortstop position and would be an excellent get for any team.
As I wrote last week, the group of fans who are alarmed and start wondering if there is something wrong with the Vandy Boys (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker) doesn’t sweat too much. Elite prep shortstops are always coveted, just like elite college starting pitchers. It boils down to preference for teams, but I genuinely believe the number one overall pick group contains these players:
- Marcelo Mayer
- Jordan Lawler
- Jack Leiter
- Kumar Rocker
- Henry Davis
A month ago, I thought most of us following the MLB Draft would say that Jack Leiter was close to the unanimous number one prospect. That’s not the case in late May, and don’t be surprised if you are starting seeing other publications start ranking Davis over Leiter and Rocker soon.
Below is the updated Top 100 Average Rankings Database list. Note that not only has the list been updated by adding MLB Pipeline’s Top 200, but I’ve also added Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100 from ESPN.com. We are still waiting on FanGraphs to update their rankings. Full database available for Sox Machine Patreon supporters.
TOP 100 2021 MLB DRAFT AVERAGE RANKINGS
| Rank | Player Name | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Lawler | SS | Jesuit Prep (TX) |
| 2 | Jack Leiter | RHP | Vanderbilt |
| 3 | Marcelo Mayer | SS | Eastlake (CA) |
| 4 | Kumar Rocker | RHP | Vanderbilt |
| 5 | Henry Davis | C | Louisville |
| 6 | Brady House | SS | Winder-Barrow (GA) |
| 7 | Sal Frelick | OF | Boston College |
| 8 | Kahlil Watson | SS | Wake Forest (NC) |
| 9 | Matt McLain | 2B | UCLA |
| 10 | Jackson Jobe | RHP | Heritage Hall (OK) |
| 11 | Ty Madden | RHP | Texas |
| 12 | Sam Bachman | RHP | Miami (OH) |
| 13 | Harry Ford | C | North Cobb (GA) |
| 14 | Jordan Wicks | LHP | Kansas State |
| 15 | Gunnar Hoglund | RHP | Ole Miss |
| 16 | Adrian Del Castillo | C | Miami |
| 17 | Andrew Painter | RHP | Calvary Christian (FL) |
| 18 | Bubba Chandler | RHP | North Oconee (GA) |
| 19 | Colton Cowser | OF | Sam Houston State |
| 20 | Ryan Cusick | RHP | Wake Forest |
| 21 | Benny Montgomery | OF | Red Land (PA) |
| 22 | Will Taylor | OF | Dutch Fork (SC) |
| 23 | Joe Mack | C | Williamsville East (NY) |
| 24 | Joshua Baez | OF | Dexter Southfield (MA) |
| 25 | Jaden Hill | RHP | LSU |
| 26 | Chase Petty | RHP | Mainland (NJ) |
| 27 | Izaac Pacheco | 3B | Friendswood (TX) |
| 28 | Josh Hartle | LHP | Reagan (NC) |
| 29 | Jud Fabian | OF | Florida |
| 30 | Michael McGreevy | RHP | UC Santa Barbara |
| 31 | Tommy Mace | RHP | Florida |
| 32 | Will Bednar | RHP | Mississippi State |
| 33 | Ethan Wilson | OF | South Alabama |
| 34 | Jay Allen | OF | John Carroll Catholic (FL) |
| 35 | Braden Montgomery | RHP | Madison Central (MS) |
| 36 | Anthony Solometo | LHP | Bishop Eustace (NJ) |
| 37 | Lonnie White | OF | Malvern Prep (PA) |
| 38 | James Wood | OF | IMG Academy (FL) |
| 39 | Thatcher Hurd | RHP | Mira Costa (CA) |
| 40 | Ben Kudrna | RHP | Blue Valley Southwest (KS) |
| 41 | Peyton Stovall | 2B | Haughton (LA) |
| 42 | Alex Binelas | 1B | Louisville |
| 43 | Maddux Bruns | LHP | UMS-Wright (AL) |
| 44 | Luca Tresh | C | NC State |
| 45 | Chase Burns | RHP | Beech (TN) |
| 46 | Alex Mooney | SS | St. Mary's Prep (MI) |
| 47 | Matt Mikulski | LHP | Fordham |
| 48 | Michael Morales | RHP | East Pennsboro (PA) |
| 49 | Peyton Wilson | 2B | Alabama |
| 50 | Dylan Smith | RHP | Alabama |
| 51 | Gage Jump | LHP | JSerra (CA) |
| 52 | Jackson Baumeister | RHP | Bolles (FL) |
| 53 | Christian Franklin | OF | Arkansas |
| 54 | Jonathan Cannon | RHP | Georgia |
| 55 | Spencer Schwellenbach | RHP | Nebraska |
| 56 | Gavin Williams | RHP | East Carolina |
| 57 | Tyler Black | 2B | Wright State |
| 58 | Joe Rock | LHP | Ohio |
| 59 | Max Muncy | SS | Thousand Oaks (CA) |
| 60 | Wes Kath | 3B | Desert Mountain (AZ) |
| 61 | Malakhi Knight | OF | Marysville-Getchell (WA) |
| 62 | Edwin Arroyo | SS | Central Pointe Christian (FL) |
| 63 | Robert Gasser | LHP | Houston |
| 64 | Tyler Whitaker | OF | Bishop Gorman (NY) |
| 65 | Hunter Goodman | C | Memphis |
| 66 | Matheu Nelson | C | Florida State |
| 67 | Ryan Bliss | SS | Auburn |
| 68 | Noah Miller | SS | Ozaukee (WI) |
| 69 | Jac Caglianone | LHP | Plant (FL) |
| 70 | Sean Burke | RHP | Maryland |
| 71 | Colson Montgomery | 3B | Southridge (IN) |
| 72 | Cody Schrier | SS | JSerra (CA) |
| 73 | Christian MacLeod | LHP | Mississippi State |
| 74 | Cody Morissette | SS | Boston College |
| 75 | Trey Sweeney | SS | Eastern Illinois |
| 76 | Carter Jensen | C | Park Hill (MO) |
| 77 | McCade Brown | RHP | Indiana |
| 78 | Mike Vasil | RHP | Virginia |
| 79 | Michael Robertson | OF | Venice HS (FL) |
| 80 | Jose Torres | SS | NC State |
| 81 | Steven Hajjar | LHP | Michigan |
| 82 | Ricky Tiedemann | LHP | Golden West JC |
| 83 | Andrew Abbott | LHP | Virginia |
| 84 | Philip Abner | LHP | Charlotte Christian (NC) |
| 85 | Daylen Lile | OF | Trinity (KY) |
| 86 | Zack Gelof | 3B | Virginia |
| 87 | Troy Melton | RHP | San Diego State |
| 88 | Peter Heubeck | RHP | Gilman (MD) |
| 89 | Eric Hammond | RHP | Keller (TX) |
| 90 | Doug Nikhazy | LHP | Ole Miss |
| 91 | Bryce Miller | RHP | Texas A&M |
| 92 | Ian Moller | C | Wahlert (IA) |
| 93 | Justice Thompson | OF | North Carolina |
| 94 | Braylon Bishop | OF | Arkansas (AR) |
| 95 | Isaiah Thomas | OF | Vanderbilt |
| 96 | Grant Holman | RHP | California |
| 97 | Landon Marceaux | RHP | LSU |
| 98 | Frank Mozzicato | LHP | East Catholic HS (CT) |
| 99 | Eric Silva | RHP | JSerra (CA) |
| 100 | Irving Carter | RHP | Calvary Christian (FL) |
Joshua Baez: Big Power Bat Potential
This week while I was trying to balance my attention between what’s going on, Tony La Russa, and trying to watch as much film on other prep prospects. Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs just posted a draft notebook after speaking with scouting directors that he knows, and I found these two quotes interesting comparing prep and college hitters.
“With college hitters, we’re no more certain than we are with the high school guys right now,” said one National League scouting executive. “We just don’t have the big data advantage for college players that we used to.” One American League executive agreed, but not to the same extent. “We are poised for more uncertainly and variability due to the smaller track records, but it’s not as uncertain as I expected it to be.”
I’ve been told several times that some organizations feel more confident in their scouting reports for the prep players in this class than college hitters. This feeling is why I think we see so many prep options grouped up around the White Sox pick at 22nd overall. Maybe that’s not how the White Sox feel, but many of these prospect rankings lists are compiled speaking with scouting directors and agents. There’s inside information passed along, and it’s looking like the industry trusts prep hitters more with millions of dollars in a signing bonus than the college bats.
One of those hitters that intrigue me is Joshua Baez.
At 6’3” 210 lbs, Baez already has a big frame for an 18-year old prospect. There are some concerns that there won’t be more physical development from Baez, but I’m not too worried about that aspect. During the summer showcases, Baez played right field and pitched. He has a three-pitch mix with a four-seamer, changeup, and curveball. Baez has reached 95 mph in showcases but mostly sits around 92 mph during games.
That type of arm comes out when you watch the film of Baez going through drills in right field. He doesn’t have the level of athleticism to play in center field, but the arm is legit. Defensively, I think Baez can be an average right fielder but a plus-arm that will make third base coaches hesitant to send runners home.
It’s the big swing from Baez that ultimately gets people talking about the first-round potential. Some scouts have given Baez a 70 potential grade for future power regarding how easily Baez can take pitchers deep even to the opposite field. You can see that in any of Baez’s films of his big swings.
During games, it didn’t always translate for Baez. Partially I think it’s so much of an upper-cut swing opposing pitchers stayed primarily up in the zone. I can tell that Baez is not comfortable trying to make contact letter high. His sweet spot is in the lower third of the zone. That’s something Baez will have to develop over time as more and more pitchers are throwing velocity higher in the strike zone. It makes it more challenging for the upper cutters like Baez to make good contact.
Ultimately, I think Baez has the potential to be a power-hitting right fielder in the major leagues. He might never hit for contact, I’m thinking 40-grade contact, but the power is tempting. Over time I believe Baez could be a 30+ home run hitter if his development path is fruitful in results. Any team that takes Baez will be dreaming of his enormous power swing, hoping that he makes enough contact to find his way to the majors by 2026.
Midseason Award Nominees
I’m lucky as an NCBWA member to submit midseason All-Americans and Dick Howser nominees. Below are the college players I selected by position and my midseason Dick Howser ballot.
Catcher
Henry Davis - Louisville So.
Adrian Del Castillo - Miami So.
Nathan Hickey - Florida Fr. (RS)
Matheu Nelson - Florida State So.
Kevin Parada - Georgia Tech Fr.
First Base
Will Frizzell - Texas A&M Sr.
Niko Kavadas - Notre Dame Sr.
Dominic Keegan - Vanderbilt Jr.
Chris Meyers - Toledo Jr.
Bobby Seymour - Wake Forest Jr.
Second Base
Tyler Black - Wright State So.
Jackson Glenn - Dallas Baptist Sr.
Jace Jung - Texas Tech Fr.
Connor Norby - East Carolina So.
Peyton Wilson - Alabama So.
Shortstop
Ryan Bliss - Auburn Jr.
Benjamin Cowles - Maryland Jr.
Justin Guerrera - Fairfield Jr.
Matt McLain - UCLA Jr.
Trey Sweeney - Eastern Illinois r-So.
Third Base
Cole Barr - Indiana Jr.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand - Oklahoma St. So.
Brandon Lankford - UNC Asheville Sr.
Tyler Locklear - VCU Fr.
Riley Tirotta - Dayton Sr.
Outfield
Tanner Allen - Mississippi State Jr.
Enrique Bradfield Jr. - Vanderbilt Fr.
Colton Cowser - Sam Houston So.
Dylan Crews - LSU Fr
Jud Fabian - Florida So.*
Christian Franklin - Arkansas Jr.
Sal Frelick - Boston College Jr.
Ethan Wilson - South Alabama Jr.
Designated Hitters
Wes Clarke - South Carolina Jr.
Ethan Long - Arizona State Fr.
Ivan Melendez - Texas r-So.
Kenyon Yovan - Oregon Jr.
Utility Players
Jack Brannigan - Notre Dame So.
Davis Hare - Florida State Jr.
Zach Neto - Campbell R-Fr.
Spencer Schwellenbach - Nebraska Jr.
Starting Pitchers
Sam Bachman - Miami, Ohio Jr
McCade Brown - Indiana So.
Ryan Cusick - Wake Forest So.
Gunnar Hoglund - Ole Miss Jr.
Jack Leiter - Vanderbilt So.
Ty Madden - Texas r-So.
Matt Mikulski - Fordham Sr.
Kumar Rocker - Vanderbilt Jr.
Relief Pitchers
Jack Anderson - Florida State So.
Tyler Eckberg - K-State Jr
Haylen Green - TCU Sr
Kevin Kopps - Arkansas r-Sr.
Carson Palmquist - Miami Fr
Landon Sims - Mississippi State r-Fr.
First Voting Dick Howser Trophy
8 Votes: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
7 Votes: Jack Leiter, P, Vanderbilt
6 Votes: Kumar Rocker, P, Vanderbilt
5 Votes: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
4 Votes: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
3 Votes: Ty Madden, P, Texas
2 Votes: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
1 Vote: Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State
