Because the White Sox and Twins didn't meet until 32 games into the season, the question was supposed to be whether the Sox could keep up.
Instead, the pressing question is whether they'll be able to keep the Twins down.
The first-place Sox are seven games ahead of the fourth-place Twins, and while it's early, the small sample only makes it more staggering. At FanGraphs, Jay Jaffe put together a comprehensive overview of all that's ailing the Twins, and every issue that's currently nipping at the White Sox is eating Minnesota alive.
Injuries? Byron Buxton strained his hip flexor shortly after Luis Robert tore his, and while Buxton's absence isn't expected to last as long, he's supposed to be out weeks, rather than days. Likewise, Alex Kiriloff re-injured his wrist, so both teams are lacking their two most dynamic, projectable outfielders.
On top of that, the Twins have lacked Luis Arraez due to a concussion, Miguel Sano had a hamstring issue, and a lot of the remaining roster had to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak.
Bullpen? The White Sox bullpen has already lost three games it led after six, but the Twins are two games worse in that department at 11-5. They've also lost four games they've led after eight, which is as many as good teams will lose in an entire season. Alex Colomé bombed out of the closer role and is trying to piece it together in lower-leverage work, and Taylor Rogers stumbled early in his attempt to reclaim ninth innings, and Tyler Duffey has walked as many as he's struck out.
Extra innings? The White Sox may be 0-3 under the new rules, but the Twins are 0-7. This year. Not combined.
Basically, Minnesota has dealt with failures large and small, and the small ones have detonated at the moments where they can inflict the most damage. That's how a team is eight games under .500 with a run differential that's nearly break-even (-2).
That makes me slightly nervous, because while the Royals pulled out a bunch of wins with their Dayton Moore-brand magic and are now paying the price for their lack of sustainable success stories, Minnesota's situation is a photo negative that could still develop. Nelson Cruz is still Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson is back to being Josh Donaldson, and so they only need a few more players to shake what's ailing them before they resume being a threat.
Kenta Maeda is one of them, and he'll face the Sox tonight after throwing his first dominant performance of the season his last time out. The Twins have won all five games Michael Pineda has started against the White Sox, and J.A. Happ has found ways to give the White Sox a tough time. Minnesota could win the series and it wouldn't feel out of place.
That said, the White Sox are countering with their three hottest starters. Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Rodón have been strong enough to relegate Lucas Giolito's struggles to a nuisance, not a crisis. It similarly wouldn't be that much of a shock if the White Sox took the series and shoved the Twins further down the ladder, at least in the context of both teams' starts.
In the big picture, it'd still be shocking to see the White Sox eight games up on Minnesota during the first half of May. There's the idea that the Twins have won the last two division titles and were projected for a third. There's also the head-to-head record, with Minnesota owning a 42-25 edge over the White Sox, and only split last year's series because Donaldson threw a fit after homering. The Sox then collapsed over the last 10 days of the 2020 season to fall into third place, the latest example of their ability to "correct" standings in a way that demoralizes the consumer.
That history is why this series still feels significant, even if the White Sox have the ability to absorb a few losses at the moment. They dispatched the Royals in a way that suggested superiority, turning their five-game skid into an eight-game slide. There will be no better time to take it to the Twins, because kicking teams while they're down pays handsomely.
(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
