The Minnesota Twins snapped a three-game skid with a 7-2 victory over the Mariners on Wednesday, but they continued to lose in other forms. Seattle took the first two games, meaning Minnesota hasn't won a series since a sweep of Baltimore that started back on Memorial Day. Also, Josh Donaldson and Andrelton Simmons exited the game early -- Donaldson with calf tightness, and Simmons with ankle irritation.
Rocco Baldelli didn't sound all that alarmed by either injury:
Regarding Donaldson: "There's not really a high level of concern right now.
Regarding Simmons: "It's something that definitely relieves itself normally in a day or two."
But it's possible that the concerns are merely relative to the overall wreckage. The Twins have the American League's third-worst record at 27-41, 16 games behind the White Sox and 12½ games back of the second wild card. There's all the injuries, but it doesn't help that their three main pitching acquisitions have all been healthy flops. Matt Shoemaker has a 7.57 ERA, the White Sox might've broken J.A. Happ, and Alex Colomé faltered in high-leverage situations from his very first appearance.
A healthy Byron Buxton can't be assumed, but even if he were reliable, he could only fix so much. Over at The Athletic, Twins writer Aaron Gleeman is calling it a year. The size of the failure is such that he says Minnesota's front office shouldn't just consider flipping impending free agents like Nelson Cruz and Andrelton Simmons, but they should consider the post-2022 free agents as well:
If the Twins decide to reload, rather than rebuild, and shop only the impending free agents, odds are they’ll be adding second-tier prospects or young, unproven big-league relievers who could step right into the bullpen mix. But if the Twins decide to rebuild for 2023 and beyond, rather than reload for 2022, any players eligible for free agency after next season could also become logical trade chips.
And that’s when calls from contenders would start flooding in, since the Twins’ post-2022 free agents include Byron Buxton, José Berríos, Miguel Sanó, Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers. Plus, if they decide to take that plunge, trading key, in-their-prime pieces of the core a season-plus before free agency, it’s natural to assume they’d push to deal Josh Donaldson (signed through 2023) as well.
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The Kansas City Royals briefly used a couple of wins against Minnesota to climb back over .500 at the start of the month, but after re-peaking at 29-26, they've lost 11 of their last 12 to fall to 30-37. They also took a hit health-wise on Wednesday, with Brady Singer departing after three innings with right posterior shoulder tightness.
Singer has been the most consistent of the Royals' numerous young starters, but that's not saying much. Kris Bubic's return to the rotation looked good in May, but he's given up eight homers over 13 innings in June. Brad Keller has a 6.14 ERA, and Jackson Kowar has started two games and pitched a total of two innings, because he's thrown a total of 96 pitches. His ERA is the same as Jarrod Dyson's age: 36.
Compounding problems, the Royals lost one of their three above-average hitters, Andrew Benintendi, to a hairline fracture in a rib. That leaves Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana as the only active Royals with an OPS+ above 100. Whit Merrifield is scuffling this year, and Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier both have batting averages that start with "1."
Nobody expected the Royals to contend-contend, but they have/had enough talent to be a nuisance, as evidenced by the hot streaks a pair of cold spells have doused. But they're bottom-third in both offense and pitching and not trending well in either department, which leaves the AL Central without a middle class.
FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections say the AL Central has the worst third-best team in baseball...
- Yankees, 88.7 wins
- Giants, 88.5
- Angels, 82.8
- Reds, 82.5
- Braves, 80.6
- Twins, 76.5
... while PECOTA says it's merely the second-worst:
- Red Sox, 87.5
- Giants, 84.4
- Angels, 83.5
- Reds: 81.0
- Twins, 80.9
- Nationals, 78.6
You may have noticed that both systems think the Twins will prevail over the Royals. It's not unreasonable, what with the Royals ahead by 3½ games in that particular head-to-head matchup, and the Twins more likely to experience significant internal improvement.
The projections just don't account for Minnesota selling, which might render moot whatever resiliency the models bake in for positive regression.
That theoretically should improve the White Sox's postseason odds, at least among skeptical algorithms. FanGraphs needs no convincing, giving the White Sox the second-highest postseason probability at 92 percent, trailing only the Dodgers at 98.2. PECOTA only gives the White Sox a 56.1 percent chance, with Cleveland running right behind at 51.5 percent.
I'd be inclined to scoff at PECOTA's bearish assessment, except the White Sox are riding the strength of a five-deep rotation just as Major League Baseball is ready to crack down on foreign substances. That's not to say White Sox pitchers are doctoring baseballs, at least in a way that's out of line relative to the competition. For all I know, the White Sox might be in a better position than most of the league.
It's just a development that directly involves their defining characteristic. If Tyler Glasnow is right and injuries can be directly attributable to grip adjustments, then it's probably worth waiting to see if the White Sox are still the same team in a couple weeks. That sounds pragmatic to the point of dour, but given the unprecedented nature of these guidelines, you can't rule out the White Sox looking even stronger.
(Photo by Jordan Johnson/USA TODAY Sports)
