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Nick Madrigal’s improvements make him tougher for White Sox to replace

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 31: Chicago White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal (1) singles to right field to drive in a run during the third inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians on May 31, 2021, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Gordie Howe didn't have to score a goal, collect an assist and get in a fight 20 times in a year in order for that feat to be named the Gordie Howe Hat Trick. In fact, he only did it twice, and zero times over the final 24 years of his career. It just captured his combination of skills and edge pithily enough to stick.

Likewise, I'd hoped that Nick Madrigal might bury his most recent hat trick back on May 21 -- an improbable single, a baserunning mistake, and rushing a play into an error -- with two decades of production that would make the reference outdated.

And he was well on his way to doing that. He committed a minor TOOTBLAN the next day, and a throwing error on May 31 by not conceding an infield single, but otherwise steadied over the last three weeks. The lack of mistakes elsewhere allowed his offensive surge to be enjoyed without qualifiers. He hit .371/.418/.548 after that ugly performance at Yankee Stadium through his first three plate appearances on Wednesday.

Alas, on that third plate appearance, he suffered a leg injury a step away from first base, just like Luis Robert.

He also had to be helped off the field, just like Luis Robert. And now we'll wait for an injury timetable that feels like it's also going to be similar to Luis Robert's, or at least Adam Engel's injury, since it also involves a hamstring.

There are multiple tough things about this development, and I'll save the team aspects for when the White Sox issue a more formal update, presumably later today. What's tough for Madrigal as a player is that he'd just put the aftereffects from his previous injuries behind him.

Between the wrist fracture he suffered at Oregon State and the shoulder he dislocated last year, he had a hard time pulling the ball with any authority. It resulted in ISOs of .089 in the minor leagues, and .029 his rookie season. That's typically unplayable, unless you have Madrigal's preternatural contact ability. Even then, the errors in the field and basepaths hampered his value.

But Madrigal finally restored his ability to sting the ball this year, resulting in an ISO that was somehow both .120 for the season and rising as of late (.177 post-hat trick). If he had no improvement left in him, we'd still be getting the modern-day Placido Polanco that we'd hoped for on draft day ...

    • Polanco, 2001-09: .305/.350/.418, 5.2% BB, 6.3% K
    • Madrigal, 2021: .305/.349/.425, 5.1% BB, 7.9% K

... except such production is even more valuable in such a suppressed, strikeout-heavy environment:

    • Polanco, 2001-09: 103 wRC+
    • Madrigal, 2021: 118 wRC+

Beyond the shape of production, Madrigal had captured the Polancoan characteristics of his game, in which you were generally happy to see him. Righties, lefties, top of the order, bottom of the order, nobody really cared. You could just set him and forget him, and when the smoke clears at the end of the season, he's right there with 4 WAR at second base somehow.

Madrigal was on the same track, on pace for a 3.8 WAR season despite the muted start at the plate and erratic start in the field. What's more: While his season splits suggest he had little to offset the White Sox's issues hitting righties, he'd found ways to damage them during this recent stretch:

    • vs. RHP through May 21: .275/.318/.370 over 148 PA
    • vs. RHP after May 21: .371/.418/.548 over 69 PA

This ability to cover the plate regardless of handedness shows up with runners in scoring position, and this particular White Sox leaderboard shows the danger in losing Madrigal's particular impact for any length of time:

Player w/RISPPAK%BA
Yoán Moncada7021.4.358
Adam Eaton4623.9.351
Leury García5324.5.341
Nick Madrigal529.6.313
Yermín Mercedes6421.9.246
José Abreu7321.9.241
Tim Anderson5028.0.239
Yasmani Grandal3732.4.167
Andrew Vaughn3327.5.152

Entering the season, Madrigal was probably the regular whose absence the White Sox could most easily absorb due to his low ceiling and availability of playable backups. But with an entire outfield either hobbling or hurt, Madrigal's ability to handle every matchup became a lot more important. Whatever Leury García is able to contribute is already needed in center field, and Danny Mendick hasn't sustained positive first impressions in either of the past two seasons.

The White Sox have done an admirable job of next-man-upping their way through the various injury crises, but there was already a finite supply of men. There certainly isn't a next Madrigal to be found, especially one who finally seemed to harness the entirety of his game.

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

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