2021 MLB Draft: Mock Draft 3.0

We are just a few moments away before the Pittsburgh Pirates are officially on the clock. New information is continuing to be gathered, but it seems like the mid-first round of picks will be murkier than usual. Rumors persist we could see under slot deals for Baltimore at Pick 5, New York Mets at Pick 10, and Cincinnati at Pick 17. Those three selections could tilt the first round. 

Even though this is the latest first-round pick in quite some time for the White Sox, there’s plenty of talent to be had. Perhaps a surprise is in store of an unexpected player falling to them, like Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund or Miami (OH) RHP Sam Bachman. I like the depth of this draft class and believe the White Sox will pick up two quality prospects in the first two rounds. 

Who do I want the White Sox to pick? I’ve broken down my thinking into three parts: Most preferred, “Weary of,” and “Please don’t.” 

Most Preferred: Prep Shortstop

The strength of this year’s draft class is the prep shortstops. Not all of them will stick at shortstop. I don’t think Wes Kath, Izaac Pacheco, or Peyton Stovall will, but I like many of their tools as I continue to watch these prep shortstops. There’s a nice blend of power potential, bat speed, barrel contact, arm strength, and range from this class of shortstops. 

Because there are so many quality options, I believe we will see prep shortstops fly off the board. As you’ll see in my mock draft below, I’ve got seven going in the first round and six more off the board in the second round. I’d like to see the White Sox get one of the shortstops at Pick 22. 

Colson Montgomery, I think, would be an excellent fit for the White Sox if he’s still on the board at Pick 22. Chances are getting slimmer by the hour of Montgomery reaching the White Sox, as I’ve heard the Mets and Cubs are very interested in him. I like Peyton Stovall’s bat, but ultimately I think he’s a second baseman or left fielder as his arm strength is a bit lacking at shortstop. I’ve been on the Izaac Pacheco bandwagon for a while, but I admit he’ll move to third base or the outfield as I’m not crazy about his footwork defensively. 

I think the White Sox pick comes down to two players: Wes Kath and Max Muncy. Kath has the left-handed power we are always clamoring the White Sox to have more of, but like Pacheco, I think he ultimately moves to third base. This position change would be acceptable as the White Sox don’t have a clear successor to Yoan Moncada in the farm system. 

Muncy is the one of this group I think is most likely to stick at shortstop, and for those reasons is why I think the White Sox will ultimately select him. This farm system needs more middle infield depth, and the White Sox can take their time to develop Muncy with Tim Anderson under contract until 2024.

Weary of: Joe Mack

Yes, I’ve seen other publications mock Joe Mack, prep catcher to the White Sox at Pick 22. Did you know the last prep catcher to stick at the position to accumulate more than 10 WAR in their career was Joe Mauer? He was drafted 20 years ago. Neil Walker was selected as a prep catcher, but Pittsburgh moved him from behind the plate and into the infield by age 21. 

The track record for prep catchers might be the worst of all of the draft demographics. I think it’s because catching is so tricky. Sure, an 18-year old may look good at the showcases and their high school seasons, but are they mature enough to handle a pitching staff? Have they caught premium velocity and spin before? Are the physical rigors too much of a long-term injury risk for them? 

If the White Sox select Mack with Pick 22, I hope it’s because they like his bat more than the available prep shortstops. Which, I’m not sure I would agree with that line of thinking. Both Kath and Muncy displayed better results at the Perfect Game showcase than Mack. The White Sox were high on Tyler Soderstrom last year, and he was in the running at Pick 11 against Garrett Crochet. Soderstrom is hitting .311/.396/.560 this year at Class A for Oakland and is Baseball America’s 92nd ranked prospect. If the White Sox draft Mack, I wonder if it’s because they see similar traits to Soderstrom. 

Please don’t: Jud Fabian

The one stat that I firmly believe carries to each level is a hitters strikeout rate. If you strike out at a high clip in college (+25%), you’ll strike out frequently throughout your professional career. It’s a negative aspect that teams overlook because they hit for power or have excellent defensive tools. 

Fabian hit for power in 2021, smashing 20 home runs for the Florida Gators. He’s also an excellent defensive center fielder possessing the athleticism to cover the gaps. 

Fabian’s strikeout rate in SEC play was 29.2%. 

If you’re a college hitter striking out 29.2% of the time, what’s that rate going to look like when they face better pitching in the minors? Fabian-stans will point to a stretch from April 9 to May 8 when he only struck out 11 times in 18 games. That’s good, but I’ll like to point out what happened before April 9 and after May 9 as the strikeout rate once again ballooned. Fabian also had a terrible outing during Regionals (0-for-8, 3 K’s) when the Florida Gators were embarrassed at home. 

Fabian is worth taking in the second round, but as a draft-eligible sophomore, there are whispers he could return to Florida if not taken in the first round. I would recommend he do that because he’s only 20 years old, and if Fabian can knock 10% off his strikeout rate while still putting up 20+ home runs, he’ll go in the Top 10 picks in the 2022 MLB Draft. Which is the draft range many thought Fabian would go this year, but I do not see that happen. 

If there is pressure from the front office to continue taking the best college player available at Pick 22, it would be a pitcher. If the pressure is to take the best college bat available, it’s probably Fabian. I just don’t think it’s worth the risk of drafting a player with a significant flaw when there are other intriguing (and younger) options available.

Mock Draft 3.0

Programming note: Starting at 6 pm CT, I'll be hosting a Twitter Space providing live reactions to the picks. James Fox of Future Sox will be joining me, and you can listen by following me on Twitter, @soxmachine_josh.