The 40-game mark is a popular time for a writer to assess a team's futures. Its hopes. Its dreams. Its flaws. Its potential.
Over the course of writing about that particular checkpoint, said writer might use "quarter pole" as a synonym for "40 games," as it's a lyrical way to reduce redundancy. That writer would be using the wrong term, because the term as it's understood in horse racing refers to the amount of race remaining. Horse races vary in length and start from various points on the track, while the finish line never changes, so it makes sense to have an end-centric approach to fixed measurement devices.
I have been that writer, passing off "quarter pole" incorrectly in the past. I now usually avoid that metaphor at the 40-game mark, because "three-quarter pole" is too clunky to be worth it.
By the time the actual, correct point of the season arrives, there's nary a pole reference to be found, especially since clubs stopped acquiring Marc Rzepcynski in the middle of a season. The fates of most teams are understood, at least until the postseason arrives. No trades can be made, so any augmentations are likely to be minor in nature.
Take the White Sox, which most people gladly will. Their 11-game lead makes them a virtual lock for the postseason. FanGraphs has called the race with a 100-percent probability, while PECOTA is the most skeptical at 96.2. They're at the point of the season where Mike Wright is the most alluring arm available. Some guys need to get healthy, others need to get up to speed, while everybody else needs to remain available, but that's the case for just about every team.
Where the White Sox differ from every team is the enormous cushion over the division's runner-up. Milwaukee has the second-largest lead in the game, and they're only up 7½ on Cincinnati. With individual wins and losses lacking the usual meaning in August, the White Sox can spend weeks in maintenance mode, whether that takes the form of giving reps to remove rust or taking away reps to give a breather, leaving everybody to hope that the right balance is struck.
The updates in this regard:
Carlos Rodón: The White Sox issued mixed signals on the length of Rodón's absence when they put him on the injured list for shoulder fatigue last Thursday, but while he'll miss more than the minimum 10 days, it sounds like it won't be by much more than that.
“I guess the good thing from being hurt and having serious injuries is you know what hurt is and you can tell the difference,” he said. “Today I felt really good.”
Rodon said his MRI last week came back clean.
“I’m telling you I’m looking forward to making that next start,” he said.
Tony La Russa says that next start could be during the Toronto series, which starts next Monday. In the interim, Reynaldo López will be giving the Sox a chance to win. If he fares well tonight, he could give the Sox a rotation a temporary sixth man to afford extra rest to the others until the next scheduled off day arrives on Aug. 30.
Adam Engel: While two different issues -- a sore shoulder and a recent groin tweak -- conspired to put Engel on the shelf on Monday, the White Sox feel more comfortable projecting a minimal stay for him.
"The expectation is that 10 days from now," White Sox manager Tony La Russa said Monday, "he'll be active and ready to play."
His absence, combined with that of Leury García, makes it a little too easy to picture a left-to-right outfield of Eloy Jiménez, Brian Goodwin and Andrew Vaughn, but that's enough reason to do what one can now to avoid seeing it in October.
Liam Hendriks: He's healthy, but his stuff looked weak against the Yankees, who blasted three homers over the course of three outs in Hendriks' previous two appearances. He struck out the side in a perfect ninth to close out the White Sox's victory over Oakland on Monday, which is more the idea.
After the successful save, Hendriks deployed what can often be a classic excuse:
“The last two outings, I had to get that bad taste out of my mouth,” Hendriks said. “I realized I had been tipping my heater a little bit against the Yankees.”
But there may be something to it. On Twitter, Jay Cuda had noted before the game that Hendriks had lost the uniformity of his release point over the previous week(s), and he rectified it on Monday.
There are just a couple holes in trying to diagnose Hendriks' issues as release-point driven, at least using those Brooks charts. For one, the Y-axis in those graphics only covers about three-eighths of an inch, making it look a lot more dramatic than it may be. When you look at the release points of the pitches over the course of the season on both his Brooks page and Statcast page, he works within a certain margin for error.
His most effective stretch of the season to date covered May 13 through June 10, when he went 14 games without allowing a homer. His release points fluctuated without related problems.
The other issue is that the ballpark in Dyersville was not outfitted with tracking equipment, so the data for that game is unavailable. It'd be a lot more helpful if we could have three recent data points to serve as the trend, especially when that one was the worst of the bunch.
My guess is still that he's battling a spin/extension/carry issue that exacerbates any moments of lesser command or release point. And I'm not even sure it's so much of an issue to solve as it is to manage; a drawback of such a fastball-aggressive approach away from Oakland, and in an era where grip enhancers are limited. Still, his release points are among the elements worth monitoring in subsequent save opportunities. When the biggest addition to a roster is a closer, the individual failures naturally draw heightened scrutiny.
(Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports)
