Last week's P.O. Sox mailbag provided a preview of what potential Patreon supporters could expect over the course of the offseason.
This week's P.O. Sox rewards those who made the jump from "potential Patreon supporters" to "new members." Welcome, and thanks to everybody for their support of Sox Machine, new and old.
Let's begin.
CATCHING UP TO HOUSTON
Rodney asks: So looking at the Astros as the team to beat for ‘22 post-season, what stands out as the biggest differences and how to address? Defense up the middle appears to be a challenge - Grandal’s knee wasn’t 100% all year but his throwing arm is going to be problematic.
Yasmani Grandal only had a kill rate of 19 percent ... yet it was the best on the team, ahead of Zack Collins (17 percent) and Seby Zavala (11 percent). That suggests to me that the pitchers were as bad at holding runners as it appeared. It almost looked at the end of the season like Grandal was accustomed to not having the chance, which might've cost him an opportunity to draw an interference call on a throw that would've been way late if he pulled the trigger. I think it'd be great if Grandal had a defense-first complement, but less because Grandal is a liability behind the plate, and more because should Grandal have to miss time, it'd be great if the White Sox had a catcher who did something well. When you play Collins and Zavala, what is anybody hoping to get?
(Carlos Perez throws and blocks well, but his receiving leaves some to be desired. There's a project for Jerry Narron if he's still around. In the meantime, keep an eye on Tucker Barnhart's situation.)
It's a boring answer, but the biggest issue with the White Sox is getting the ball off the ground. A lot of their contact is baserunner poison, and while some of that is an unwillingness to adjust to how they're being pitched, a lot of their grounders comes on pitches they should be trying to drive. They just drive them into the ground. Whether that's a job for a hitting lab, or a problem for Rick Hahn to solve from outside will be one of the bigger offseason story lines.
WHITHER YERMÍN?
Lew asks: Whither Yermin?
Yermín Mercedes was a bit of a victim of his own success, in that his highs were so high that the White Sox couldn't risk letting him go for nothing if they had a major disruption on that part of the depth chart. He was then a victim of his impulses, because the brief retirement announcement provided a public, on-the-record incident that helped explain what all the murmuring was about, as unfair as it was. When Gavin Sheets emerged as a better bet and a better fit for the White Sox's needs (left-handed, could stand with a glove in an outfield corner), that was that.
If he had a normal month of a AAAA player and a more normal reputation, he probably could've found a more hospitable depth chart for cash considerations. As it stands, it still seems like somebody with the potential to dominate leagues with ordinary velocity would be a great fit for the NPB or KBO. Dayan Viciedo is a role model here.
TRADING GIOLITO?
Roy asks: Is now the time to trade Giolito to fill holes and sign a couple free agent starting pitchers?
Whenever there's an idea to trade a player to sign players who play his position, I often wonder why potentially interested teams wouldn't just try signing those pitchers. The open market is awash with options at various levels:
- In prime: Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray
- Future Hall of Famers: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Zack Greinke
- Successful rebounders: Carlos Rodón, Alex Wood, Stephen Matz, Michael Pineda
He's projected for a $7.9 million salary in his second year of arbitration, so maybe you're looking at a maximum of two years and $24 million the rest of the way.
It would be the time to trade Giolito if the Sox needed to retrench, or if they had the appetite to add multiple free agent pitchers salaries that would undoubtedly take more than Giolito's modest projection. As it stands, it's placing an awful lot of faith in Ethan Katz to assume Giolito's replacement would fare nearly as well as him, especially if he's making a similar amount of money coming from the open market.
ET TU, CÉSAR?
Erik asks: Do you have any idea why Hernandez was such a non-factor offensively after the trade? It seemed like his power evaporated. Was that an existing trend, or does it point to differences in the approach from White Sox hitters and coaching?
Well, there's the matter of simple regression. Hernández had never hit more than 15 homers in a season, so that Hernández had 18 through 96 games with Cleveland suggested that either 1) he was suddenly a 30-homer guy, or 2) avoiding a letdown might be a battle. Despite his struggles with the White Sox, he finished with a career high .154 ISO, and it wasn't even close (previous best: .129).
But looking for a reason, Hernández was unimpressive against fastballs for the bulk of the season, save July. And with the White Sox, he saw the most fastballs of any regular, at 56.5 percent. He also saw more changeups than ever before, and wasn't great against them either. So perhaps he had a Mercedes thing going on where pitchers learned they could attack him with heat no matter the count, and mix in offspeed stuff if they sensed him cheating. The rising ground-ball rate and sinking hard contact rate paints the picture of poor timing.
O.P.P.'S TOUGHEST CALL?
Ed asks: Hi Jim! I'm looking forward to the Offseason Plans starting this week. Looking at fellow Sox fans plans always give me new insights as to how the Sox could approach the off season. That said, I was wondering what part of your own Offseason Plan is proving to be your biggest struggle?
The biggest struggle for me is usually where to set the payroll. There's usually tension between what the White Sox should spend and what they will spend, although I got it pretty right with $135M last year.
Beyond that, the Nick Madrigal trade showed that the White Sox aren't scared of dealing away potential fixtures, but partially because they don't have much in the way of redundant prospects to move. So seeing whether/how people tweak the rosters with trades from the 26-man roster is what I'm anticipating the most.
KANNAPOLIS CANNON FODDER
Matt asks: How worried should the franchise be by the injuries/lack of development this season by the Low A pitchers?
I'm not worried yet, mostly because I liked what I saw from Matthew Thompson at the end of the season, and a full season of healthy reps might've been what Andrew Dalquist needed most, given both of them barely pitched in standard games over the first two years of their career. Jared Kelley's status is the one that concerns me. The results were ugly all the way through, and his season ended early with a major velocity dip, so it's a little too easy to draw Tyler Kolek comparisons for my liking, but he was also thrown in the deep end. The hope is that everybody just needed to start playing again, and next year will be smoother. I'm also hoping the Sox have better ideas on how to bridge the gap between complex ball and Low-A.
The biggest immediate problem is that it would've been nice to have one of these three players as trade fodder. I'm guessing Thompson is the only guy who really generates sufficient interest. Perhaps he can be dealt, but he's probably a year away from generating an actual return.
BEST REALISTIC FREE AGENTS?
Shekbomb asks: Who are best FAs that the white sox could conceivably sign? Assuming guys like Correa, Bryant, Seager, Story price themselves out of the Sox range. Conforto? Castellanos? Taylor?
Precedent says the White Sox were willing to go as far as five years, $125 million or so for Zack Wheeler, but they had no interest in George Springer at six years and $150 million -- or even $140 million, since it seemed like there was a Canada tax involved in the price. So yeah, it seems like the three players you mentioned might be more in the neighborhood, along with Starling Marte (although Marte's ground ball rate makes it hard to trust him aging as well as his speed suggests is possible. The Sox could also be in the market for one of the older starters, because the contract length will be on the shorter side.
Marcus Semien is the one I can see breaking the model, if only because 1) the White Sox drafted and developed him, even if Oakland finished him, and 2) he's not represented by Scott Boras. They'd seemingly be starting from a more advanced place, unless Semien really holds the trade from the White Sox against Rick Hahn, and it's not just something he and Chris Bassitt use for harmless motivation.
Here's where I'll mention that you shouldn't feel compelled to let precedent color your offseason plans. It's not about predicting what the White Sox would do, but how you would allocate a similar amount of resources.
COACHING STAFF CHANGES?
Philip asks: What coaching staff changes are you expecting? Or is it status quo going into next season?
If it were status quo, you'd think that Rick Hahn would've had his end-of-season press conference by now. The Cardinals have already fired and hired a manager before the White Sox have even announced whether everybody is returning. The White Sox have some reason to revisit what they're doing on the hitting side of things, although Frank Menechino and the Sox have some successes to point to. Then again, so did Todd Steverson.
BAD LEFT FIELDER OR DECENT FIRST BASEMAN?
Steve asks: In one of the recent podcasts, you discussed Andrew Vaughn’s future value compared to Eloy’s. In that, Konerko was referenced as a comp for Vaughn. While I think it was also mentioned later that Carlos Lee was a comp for Eloy (or if you didn’t mention it I’m making it up and have thought it myself). If Lee and Konerko are decent comps, wouldn’t Vaughn have greater future value if he can play a decent 1st base compared to Eloy? I’d rather have a good fielding Konerko for 10 years (Vaughn), than a butcher in LF that hits bombs but nothing else (Eloy). It seems there could be a lot more defensive value in a different outfielder, while defensive value at 1st is somewhat finite. Your thoughts?
We didn't draw a direct comparison between Carlos Lee and Eloy Jiménez. Josh had raised the Carlos Lee-Scott Podsednik deal as one where the Sox traded 25-man roster talent for a different 25-man roster need, and I merely wanted to emphasize that I didn't want to see the Sox try threading the needle like they did in that deal. That said, it's not the worst comp. I think Lee's career seems like a fine aspiration for Eloy, at least in terms of counting stats (2,273 hits, 358 homers, 1,363 RBIs) and a .285 average. Lee aged pretty well for is skill set, and managed to slash his strikeouts dramatically in his 30s. I think it'd be a little disappointing if Jiménez didn't exceed Lee's peak, as he had only one season with an OPS+ above 130.
Fun fact: I didn't realize until today that Lee and Konerko finished within a rounding error of the same career WAR (28.3 for Lee, 28.1 for Konerko).
In the theoretical situation you've outlined, even a bad left fielder provides value by keeping the door open for one more bat in the lineup. For instance, Lee ended up playing 250 games at first base, and the metrics liked his work there, but he had enough athleticism to not have to play there, which made him more useful to his teams. With the Sox, his ability to stand in left created room for Konerko and Frank Thomas. With Milwaukee, he didn't block Prince Fielder. With Houston, Lance Berkman could play first. He had value on a National League team that Konerko wouldn't have.
If Vaughn can hoist up his numbers, then he probably can play left field well enough to serve the purpose Lee did, even if his numbers look more Konerko-like with his extra value coming from plate discipline rather than foot speed. The question is whether Jiménez ultimately fulfills his offensive ceiling, where he basically possesses Miguel Cabrera's bat-to-ball skills with an ability to damage all sorts of pitches.
GOING BIG, THEN GOING HOME
Wayne asks: If the White Sox had $35M per year for 1 player this offseason, and the rest of the signings were for $6M per or less, what should the White Sox do?
Probably sign Carlos Correa, because even Joc Pederson got $7 million for playing the market wrong last year. The pickings for a $6 million are pretty slim outside of re-signing a Ryan Tepera, so you may as well go for the top of the market on the high side. If the Reds decline Barnhart's $7.5 million option, then I suppose he'd fit into the conversation as well.
