it's pretty much impossible to generate a rumor with any heat during an offseason lockout without a timetable for a resolution. You'll have to settle for third-degree speculation.
First, there's the idea that the Mets are putting Jeff McNeil on the trade block. McNeil had a down year, hitting just .251/.319/.360, and he's supposedly on the outside looking in, both because of the addition of Eduardo Escobar, the return of Robinson Cano, and an issue in the clubhouse after a fight with Francisco Lindor.
The initial reports only listed the Reds and A's as a possible fit for McNeil. In order to get to the White Sox, you have to resort to idle speculation from a scoopmonger.
The problem is that the Mets supposedly want pitching in return for McNeil, and while the White Sox aren't short on pitching, they pretty much need all the arms that project as possible contributors. That was highlighted in the MLB Trade Rumors offseason outlook for the White Sox, which was surprisingly heavy Christmas reading.
As mild and removed as this rumor may be, it reminded me to look through the Offseason Plan Project to gauge McNeil's popularity as a potential trade target. Sure enough, he showed up a couple times, but he and many others were outnumbered by a couple of extremely popular free agents. They just happened to be so popular that they found homes before the lockout started, so the White Sox will have to look elsewhere.
FREE AGENTS
- Chris Taylor (18 plans)
- Marcus Semien (13)
- Eduardo Escobar (4)
- César Hernández (2)
- Jonathan Villar (1)
The top four options have all found homes -- Taylor back with the Dodgers for four years and $60 million, Semien with the Rangers for a whopping seven years and $175 million, and Escobar joining the Mets at two years and $20 million. Even Hernández found a home before the lockout, although below the $6 million club option that the White Sox declined.
If you want production against right-handed pitching, Villar might be the best option left. The switch-hitter only had a 24-point gap in OPS whether facing righties (.746) or lefties (.722), but the spread in ISO was significantly larger (.195 to .109). He finally got his ground-ball rate below 50 percent from that side, so maybe it's more than luck.
Josh Harrison got a couple of nods as a utility bat, although he's a right-handed bat coming off a Hernández-like performance for Oakland after a deadline acquisition (.254/.296/.341).
One middle infielder that didn't get consideration from the Offseason Plan Project was Trevor Story, who's 3-for-3 in posting 20/20 seasons the last three 162-game schedules, even despite a down 2021. He and Carlos Correa are the lone shortstops from the stacked market who have yet to sign, and while Correa's market should be robust, Story's representatives might have to work harder for his big deal.
TRADES
- Ketel Marte (16)
- Adam Frazier (10)
- Tony Kemp (5)
- Gavin Lux (4)
- Whit Merrifield (3)
- Scott Kingery (3)
- Joey Wendle (3)
- Jeff McNeil (2)
- Jean Segura (2)
- Brandon Lowe (1)
- Kolten Wong (1)
- Jazz Chisholm (1)
- Gleyber Torres (1)
- Tommy La Stella (1)
Of the 14 trade targets, two of them changed addresses this winter, as the Padres dealt Frazier to the Mariners for a hard-throwing 27-year-old relief prospect and an A-ball outfielder. Frazier was no longer seen as the rock-solid Nick Madrigal replacement envisioned by White Sox fans last trade deadline, but rather as a candidate for an underwhelming contract swap with Craig Kimbrel after a punchless 57 games with San Diego.
Wendle stayed in Florida, but moved from Tampa Bay to Miami. The Marlins paid a higher price, sending 2019 first-rounder Kameron Misner to the Rays in return.
There are a few other buy-low candidates in this bunch, including McNeil after his weird year. Lux didn't impress in his first full season with the Dodgers, and Torres has tailed off the last two years, with a 95 OPS+ during that time with the Yankees (Tim Dierkes floated the idea of DJ LeMahieu, who also struggled last year, and is under contract through 2026). Kingery is the buy-lowest of all, hitting .144/.204/.250 over 51 games the last two seasons, with $14.5 million still guaranteed on the rare pre-arb extension that failed to a pan out.
Marte might also fit in the "buy low" group thanks to a third consecutive injury-altered season, with a hamstring strain with each leg limiting him to 90 games in 2021. He raked when healthy (.318/.377/.532), but his sprint speed plummeted to the middle of the pack.
His performance when playable represents a more ambitious path to solving the position. The most ambitious trade target is Lowe, who is coming off a 39-homer, 5-WAR season. He's under control for $18 milion the next three seasons, followed by two affordable club options. The Rays don't like paying players, but I'm not sure that qualifies as too expensive even by their standards. Merrifield splits the difference. He led the league in doubles (42) and steals (40), but his OBP has slipped the last three seasons, all the way down to .317 in 2021. He's 33, so that could be the way his decline manifests itself.
Then there are veteran stopgaps, headlined by Segura, who is the most convenient candidate for a Kimbrel swap due to a near-equivalent salary and prospect pressing from below. La Stella had a disappointing first year of a three-year deal with the Giants, while Wong had a successful rebound season with Milwaukee, but will be paid $8.5 million in 2022, with a $10 million team option. Kemp has developed into a pest with more walks (67) than strikeouts (65) from the left side over 611 plate appearances with Oakland the last two seasons, where he's hit .272/.377/.392). He has two years of arbitration remaining.
If the White Sox want to upgrade over the recently renewed Leury García and other in-house candidates like Romy González and Yolbert Sänchez, they would seem to have a wide array of possibilities. The Frazier and Wendle trades are the only reference point thus far, and they seem to set a commensurate range. Now the Sox just need the lockout to end in order to actually generate any kind of rumor with teeth, and hopefully more substantial business beyond that.
(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)
