P.O. Sox: Remaining questions after Prospect Week

10:09 PM CST on February 14, 2022

After touching on more than 40 players over five days and finishing it off with my list of the top 10 White Sox prospects for 2022, Prospect Week is over. In case you missed any of the installments:

Yet Prospect Week also continues -- partially because the lockout has delayed the start of spring training, partially because of the guest on the upcoming Sox Machine Podcast, and also because there's unfinished business in the form of P.O. Sox questions, which I've attempted to answer below.

Doug asks:

At what level last year did the players make the most progress? Seemed like AA to me.

I think Birmingham is the easy answer, and you only have to look at the record for that. The Barons finished over .500, and the other three had their league's worst record.

But that's really only because Birmingham had pitching. The top three levels all had individual success stories among the hitters, including Winston-Salem after some early struggles with too-aggressive assignments. The Dash ended up pushing along Jose Rodriguez, Yoelqui Céspedes, Yolbert Sánchez, and Lenyn Sosa while having Luis Mieses and Harvin Mendoza figure things out later in the year. Charlotte was able to provide the big-league club some unexpected depth. Kannapolis ... well, Kannapolis was just a dead zone. Which is a shame, because the new park is great. Here's hoping it gets better for the Ballers.

When it comes to team success, I think the Sox's affiliates struggled despite the independent triumphs at the plate because, aside from the pitching bottoming out, almost all their hitters are aggressive. When they're facing good pitching -- such as the game I saw the Dash play in Bowling Green, one of the talented Tampa affiliates -- the lineups go down quickly.

Trooper Galactus asks:

How critical is it to the Major League team’s success in 2022 (assuming there’s even a season) that some of their prospects break out? Their major trades to supplement the core have largely moved players already on the 26-man roster because there was nothing of value in the minors. It seems like there’s at least a half dozen players who will start in Kannapolis who could become centerpieces in a major trade if they start the season on a tear, allowing them to preserve their immediate depth.

Lance Lynn and Craig Kimbrel cost members of the 26-man roster (although Madrigal was on the 60-day injured list at the time). On the other hand, Ryan Tepera only cost the Sox Bailey Horn, who had a 13.09 ERA in Winston-Salem at the time. Deals can be made.

To me, I think I'm more focused on farm breakouts happening upstream, be it second basemen or corner infielders. If Rick Hahn insists that "the money will be spent" applies to incumbent 26-man roster guys whom time makes more expensive, then it'd be cool to solve second base with one of their infielders, or a corner spot with Oscar Colás. Or they could use such an emergence to make a trade that reallocates resources and reduces the cost of the immediate roster's framework.

Dennis asks:

Given the number of largely potential-less players filling out the rosters at all Sox minor league levels, why aren't the Sox as active as other MLB clubs in taking a flyer on more independent league players or discards from other clubs with stronger systems and development programs?

This is Yermín Mercedes erasure.

But seriously, it's a tough question to answer, mostly because the expected success rate of better teams' worse prospects and independent league players would leave them to be ignored even if the Sox were especially active. Does Jagger Rusconi, a high school player taken by the Red Sox in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, qualify as one of those prospects? He ended up posting a .705 OPS for the White Sox's low minors last year.

That said, it does seem that some pockets of the rosters are unusually stagnant. It's possible that this is the product of a longer view, in which the White Sox are selecting younger players and trying to make changes via the pitching and hitting labs. Perhaps this is also a COVID-era narrowing. In the stories about the Sox's vaccination policy for non-MLBPA personnel, they said they had a 100 percent compliance rate. Perhaps that's another reason to stick with players they know.

But until the Sox get better at shining up their own guys, I wouldn't expect the Sox to have great success in improving the stock of other teams' rejects.

Asinwreck asks:

Aside from the agreements with Oscar Colás and Erick Hernandez, have the Sox announced what they are doing with the rest of this year's international budget?

Baseball America's tracker also has the White Sox signing Dominican righty Angel Cruz, but he's the only other player officially tied to the Sox in such a capacity. Juan Uribe was stumping for the Sox to sign his son, but there's no indication yet that the interest is mutual.

BA's list shows the White Sox committed to the fewest players, with Oakland the only other team with fewer than five signings. According to Francys Romero's calculations, only the A's ($1,494,700), Marlins ($1,616,200) and Royals ($1,939,600) have more available pool space than the Sox ($1,079,700).

Maybe Cruz and others will take a bite out of that sum, or maybe Marco Paddy would prefer to have money left over in the event a Cuban defects in the middle of the signing period. But the Sox are no strangers to having money left over, either, so maybe we're overthinking it. If that's the case, sign Li'l Uribe!

Kory asks:

is it bad luck or bad scouting that has led to White Sox draft picks not panning out as much as expected? Madrigal did well. Vaughn could develop. Fulmer, Collins, and Burdi all busted to different degrees. you'd maybe want more than high leverage reliever out of an 11th overall pick in Crochet. and they seem to be missing the second, third, fourth, 10th, etc round picks that bring more depth to the higher rankings of the system.

I think both were present, and I'd even add a third element of bad development/planning. Burdi's unique because his scenic route back from Tommy John surgery seemed to be one of those cautionary tales for the "just get it over with" crowd.

For Fulmer and Collins, their careers unfolded following the more pessimistic scouting reports, ones that didn't cause the Sox to flinch. A lot of draft write-ups on Fulmer had him ticketed for the bullpen due to his unorthodox delivery, and I think the White Sox were overconfident in their ability to smooth it out while fast-tracking him. There's probably also some bad luck in the sense that other teams have tried to get him to rediscover the power fastball/curve that had everybody thinking he could be a closer if starting didn't work. Maybe he peaked at Vanderbilt.

Collins had a hitch in his swing and wasn't expected to stick behind the plate, so grunting out a living as a guy who can wear the tools of ignorance better than he can tap into his hit tool is maybe a 30th percentile outcome. I think he's a case where the White Sox really wanted a left-handed bat with an advanced eye, and the lack of athleticism gave him little margin for error.

Hopefully the pleasant surprises of Jake Burger and Gavin Sheets, along with the random emergence of Romy González and a bevy of younger players with multi-position possibilities, means that the Sox have backed out of this corner.

Andrew asks:

How concerning is the lack of catchers on the top 20/30 lists?

It's not what you want, but it's such a specialized position that one signing, one late bloomer and/or one draft pick patches up the picture just fine. Josh mentioned during the podcast that it's a good draft for catchers, so maybe Carlos Pérez and the recently signed Raudy Read buy enough time beneath Yasmani Grandal.

Southpaw Jackson asks:

Who do you think will be the next homegrown talent to be an impact starter in the rotation? I was hoping both Lambert and Stiever could be middle to back end rotation guys but I am not so confident anymore.

By "impact starter," I'm going with the idea that we're talking about a guy who can confidently be penciled into a rotation, rather than somebody who might get All-Star consideration. My prospect list says it's either Norge Vera or Sean Burke. Vera has the edge in arm, but he still has to build up a full-season workload while making the transition stateside, whereas Burke has a head start in those departments, but the road ahead is so long that I don't feel comfortable putting too many eggs in either basket. Maybe one of the ThompsonDalquistKelley takes on the form they were supposed to show, but as I mentioned in my write-ups, I'd like to see them leverage their draft-day strengths for even a few starts in a row before projecting a path forward.