The White Sox have improved enough at the MLB level that it's cool if their most recent first-round pick isn't automatically their best prospect. They drafted 22nd in 2021, when they selected Colson Montgomery. They're going to draft 26th in 2022, and Baseball America's way-too-early mock draft has them selecting another University of Tennessee pitcher who could be fast-tracked to the bullpen. The White Sox have had college relievers leading their prospect lists before, and it's always a drag, even if this one is named "Blade." Now's the time for incumbents to rule.
Alas, when looking only at farm system rankings, this is the kind of season where you wish they had a top-five pick. It'd be comforting to take Andrew Vaughn's name, slap it on top of the list, then quibble about everybody who comes after.
There are no such natural cues right now. Looking at the top 10 lists from last year, everybody got the top four right. Vaughn, Michael Kopech, Nick Madrigal and Garrett Crochet all fared well enough in the majors last year.
Afterward? Last year's attempts to establish order after the top four quickly descended into disarray. Here were the back six for my list, and those of six other outlets you should read.
| # | SM | BA | MLB | Law | FG | BP | FS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kelley | Kelley | Kelley | Thompson | Kelley | Kelley | |
| 6 | Céspedes | Thompson | Céspedes | Kelley | Burdi | Kelley | Stiever |
| 7 | Thompson | Stiever | Thompson | Stiever | Bailey | Stiever | Thompson |
| 8 | Dalquist | Dalquist | Stiever | Burger | Rodriguez | Dalquist | Dalquist |
| 9 | Vera | González | Dalquist | Dalquist | Adolfo | Heuer | Céspedes |
| 10 | Ramos | Sheets | Adolfo | Adolfo | Thompson | Vera |
Keith Law was the only one who had Jake Burger in his top 10, and BA looked smart to include Gavin Sheets (if only it had the right González ninth). FanGraphs nailed Jose Rodriguez, although it looks less prescient when he's listed behind Zack Burdi and Benyamin Bailey. Of the consensus picks, Yoelqui Céspedes was the only one who held his own. The pitchers who aren't Norge Vera messed everything up, which is ironic considering that the structure at alternate training sites seemed to benefit the arms over the bats.
Thankfully, we're coming off a more normal minor league season this time, even if it's not entirely a return to what we knew. Short-season leagues were eliminated, creating a whole class of White Sox prospects with the label of "could've really used a stint in Great Falls." Full-season affiliates worked with geographically imbalanced six-game series, creating a familiarity with opponents that might've had some effect on approaches. At all levels, you had players dealing with or succumbing to rust, resulting in a brand of baseball that made scouts gripe across the board.
Acknowledging all the wrinkles, what's important is that players got a chance to accrue sizable samples in standard games, and the ability to inspire enthusiasm. We also got to see more of them than ever, because Kannapolis finally got to open its beautiful new ballpark and join the rest of the system in streaming games. That's part of the reason why the discussion is more open than previous years. It's not all bad, even if the Cannon Ballers themselves were.
I'm enjoying the lack of consensus, even if it's born from a lack of top-100 prospect. It invites imagination. Maybe that isn't the right word, since that implies inventing something that isn't there, but this is the time to scrub any preconceived numbers from your head, write out their cases, and see where your gut goes. That's what I did this year, both with the paragraphs over the course of Prospect Week ...
- Wrangling 2022 White Sox Prospects: Big question marks
- Wrangling 2022 White Sox Prospects: Onward and upward
- Wrangling 2022 White Sox Prospects: Time on their side
- Wrangling 2022 White Sox Prospects: New in town
- Wrangling 2022 White Sox Prospects: When injuries interfered
- Prospect Week arrives, albeit with fewer White Sox prospects in tow
... as well as the blurbs accompanying each player below. I ended up shuffling the numbers twice after my first attempt.
With my rankings, I approach it from the standpoint of "Which player would I most dislike seeing the White Sox trade?" I feel like that keeps me in my lane of first-guessing how the White Sox fare, rather than pretending I know as much about scouting as those who are hardwired into that whole process and community. Beyond that, if last year's lists are any indication, you're probably going to want the attempts at ordering the system to capture as many names as possible.
Because my list is weighted by types of players the White Sox have fared well with, it's why I ended up topping it with ...
No. 1: Oscar Colás
WHY HE'S HERE: He's the Cuban Ohtani!!!!!! Just kidding, he doesn't have nearly the same crazy shoulders-to-head proportions. Unlike Yoelqui Céspedes, there's a lot more agreement on his present skill set, an easier path to 30-homer potential from the left side, and the ability to play either outfield corner. He showed the ability to climb one professional ladder in Japan, which is something only a few prospects can claim.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: Besides the general unknown that comes with not having played in competitive environments in two years, he's got that aggressiveness that's characteristic of White Sox prospects, which potentially makes it difficult to routinely tap into that power.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: When it comes to left-handed bats, they can't really afford to leave any stone unturned. They've also just shown that they value him more than any other team, so I imagine the market would be less than impressive. Marco Paddy's next misread of an established Cuban prospect will be his first.
No. 2: Colson Montgomery
WHY HE'S HERE: He offers so many things the White Sox system lacks -- up-the-middle athleticism, no immediate strike zone issues, and an inability to drink in the United States without a fake ID.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: You'd like to see a louder tool for a player so young, although being 19 on draft day means he's not as young as other prep picks (he turns 20 on Feb. 27). Speaking of which, Blake Rutherford was also 19 on draft day, and the whole extra year they would've had for Rule 5 consideration would've turned out to be rather informative.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: The broad base of skills means one should carry the day, especially if you can liken him to Tim Anderson and say the late switch to a single-sport focus will make certain skills emerge with an unexpected ferocity.
No. 3: Jake Burger
WHY HE'S HERE: The reasons the White Sox drafted him in the first round in 2017 are the reasons he got the call in 2021 despite missing three full seasons in between -- a bat that doesn't need years of reps, playable defense at third, and intangibles that turned two ruptured Achilles into valuable experience.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: The White Sox are not short on right-handed corner types, even if Burger can play third (and pass at second for a game here and there). A bone bruise limited him late in the season, so even if the worst of his injuries are past him, he still has a ways to go before he proves his durability. The strikeout rate was higher than envisioned, even at Triple-A.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: If he could look that good at Charlotte and a managed cup of coffee in Chicago after all he'd been through and how little he'd played, what's he going to look like after a year of real, standard high-level baseball under his belt?
No. 4: Norge Vera
WHY HE'S HERE: He struck out 34 against five walks over 19 innings while posting a 0.00 ERA. Sure, it was against DSL competition younger and far less qualified for tax purposes, but he's touching 100 with other pitches he can throw for strikes, not crafty-leftying a bunch of 17-year-olds.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: He's still got a long climb ahead when it comes to building a starter's workload, and a lot can happen between now and then, so maybe deal him while he's got Billy Madison's playground highlight reel.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: Marco Paddy's bullish signing-day assessment has already surpassed the original scouting reports, and if even 80 percent of it translates stateside, there isn't another pitcher in the system who comes close.
No. 5: Jose Rodriguez
WHY HE'S HERE: He's the owner of the most enjoyable White Sox minor-league career to date, rising from humble "$50,000 Dominican Republic signing" origins to ace all of his three professional seasons, including a tour-de-force three-level romp that got him to Birmingham at age 20. He hit .301/.338/.469 over 111 games with 14 homers and 30 stolen bases, and it looks like he doesn't need to move off shortstop.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: He had an unimpressive Arizona Fall League stint (.226/.273/.323), and while that could be a small sample size, a lot of his early success could be attributable to being a better ballplayer than other teenagers. He doesn't have that carrying tool, be it power or speed or defense, that ensures a major-league job, so he's reliant on his entire game remaining glued together against the stress of upper-level pitching.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: His biggest flaw is his walk rate, but unlike other prospects, it's not attached to a strikeout rate that makes his entire approach at the plate worrisome. It could improve with time, as could other elements that are already good for his age and level. People generally didn't succeed in underestimating Popeye.
No. 6: Yoelqui Céspedes
WHY HE'S HERE: He hit .285/.350/.463 between Winston-Salem and Birmingham after a two-year layoff, which alleviated the immediate concern about his hit tool while preserving the combination of speed and power that had greater consensus. His ability to play center field makes it easier to wait on his plate discipline to (hopefully) find an equilibrium.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: You know how some pitchers can hit 100, but it requires every bit of physical whip in order to generate that velocity, and so their relationship with the strike zone is casual at best? I'm kinda wondering if his smaller frame requires every inch of his long swing in order to really sting the ball, and timing is going to be harder to come by against the world's best pitching. Also, he had shoulder issues early, then got hit by a lot of pitches during the season.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: Poor AFL showing aside, he's validated Paddy's scouting report so far, and like Burger, there's a natural reason to believe he could be more dangerous after one season of affiliated ball under his belt. Otherwise, prospects would only need 60 games or so to understand what they are, right?
No. 7: Bryan Ramos
WHY HE'S HERE: He's survived/thrived in two ambitious assignments in his two years as a pro, including a .244/.345/.415 line in an otherwise brutal year for the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers. He can reach base without hitting (51 walks, 18 HBPs) and topped 40 extra-base hits while playing third and second, which is great for a 19-year-old.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: We're still only talking about a .761 OPS at Kannapolis here. A carrying tool hasn't yet emerged, and he might not have a position, although a shoulder issue was the reason he played on the right side of the infield.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: He's got that broad base of tools that should allow multiple ways to matriculate up the ladder. For instance, should his hands limit him as an infielder, he's fast enough to take an outfield corner if he hits well enough. He can pull the ball in the air, and that shouldn't go underappreciated for somebody who doesn't turn 20 until next month.
No. 8: Romy González
WHY HE'S HERE: He had the first 20/20 season for the Birmingham Barons since Aaron Rowand in 2000, and Rowand needed 139 games for his. González only played 79 before a promotion to Triple-A. He hit .283/.364/.532 across two levels while handling shortstop most of the time before getting a well-deserved call-up in September, and he handled shortstop
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: The strikeout-to-walk ratio was out of whack in the minors (112 to 43 over 404 plate appearances), so it wasn't a surprise when it was 11-to-1 in the majors, small sample caveats notwithstanding. If his ultimate future is a utility guy, the White Sox have plenty internal options to choose from.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: Before Rowand, Mike Cameron knocked out a 20/20 season in Birmingham in 1996, which indicates a necessary level of talent required to achieve such a feat. González might not be either, but this version looks so vastly different from his pre-pandemic self. It's hard to know where he's going when we don't exactly know where he came from.
No. 9: Yolbert Sánchez
WHY HE'S HERE: He hit .308/.352/.419 over 99 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, and when you include his .400/.533/.514 line in the AFL, he brushed off a slow start and never slowed down afterward. He's a good second baseman, but he's also not eliminated from the shortstop conversation, either.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: For the same reasons the Sox thought they could replace Nick Madrigal, in that a hit tool without a lot of oomph behind it might lack staying power. Unlike Madrigal, Sánchez has stayed healthy as long as he's been in the system. If the Sox make an outside addition to bolster the infield, the Sox aren't short on utility infielders to take on his most likely future role.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: Because the Sox are already ruing the Madrigal trade, and if you give Sánchez some time in Charlotte, he's probably the best in-house candidate for a lengthy audition at second base over the second half of the 2022 season.
No. 10: SEAN BURKE
WHY HE'S HERE: He has a big frame and broad arsenal, and thanks to Tommy John surgery and the pandemic, he didn't really get a chance to learn how to use it during his time with Maryland, so the success he's already enjoyed is a certain kind of impressive. Also, the prep pitchers all had such rough seasons that I'm kinda using him to make a point.
WHY YOU'D TRADE HIM: Control is a problem, and can often persist for pitchers as large as him (6'6"). The White Sox have gotten a lot of their second-day collegiate arms to Double-A before they lose the thread, and Burke has both in-season and season-to-season durability to prove as well. That's why he lasted until the third round in 2021.
WHY YOU'D REGRET IT: The lack of refinement is easier to explain given the comparatively little experience he has for a college arm, so let's see what one full year of starts does for him.
And six more
MATTHEW THOMPSON/ANDREW DALQUIST/JARED KELLEY: They still have plenty of time for progress, but it's hard to summon enthusiasm for their cases when they're struggling to leverage their draft-day strengths for more than a start at a time in Low-A. The athleticism of Thompson and Dalquist hasn't translated into repeatable deliveries, and Kelley's big frame isn't holding up to even a mild introduction to the grind.
WES KATH: He struck out 42 times over 115 plate appearances in the ACL, he isn't an up-the-middle athlete, and while he was 18 on draft day, he turned 19 at the start of the short season. Some draftniks liked him better than Montgomery, so he could shake off the rookie-year jitters and turn into a low-minors force in short order, but just like the pitchers above, I'd prefer for him to generate a little excitement before putting a number on him.
MICKER ADOLFO: He's on the doorstep of the majors with power that should play, but the big swing-and-miss problems that will make it hard to stick. He's had enough injury problems that late blooming isn't out of the question, but you can say the same thing about future injuries.
WILFRED VERAS: He made his pro debut in the ACL at age 18 and hit .322/.416/.533, which outpaces the impressive production of Rodriguez and Ramos at that level by a considerable amount. If he carries that into A-ball, it'll offset the present concerns about whether he can play somewhere besides first base, so I want to say that I at least covered him here.
