The Minnesota Twins needed at least two credible starting pitching additions to offset the losses of José Berríos (traded), Michael Pineda (free agency) and Kenta Maeda (Tommy John surgery). They made an uninspiring early signing in Dylan Bundy, then made their fans sweat until they traded for Sonny Gray after the lockout.
But given that Bundy is coming off a 6.06 ERA for an Angels team that also had designs on contending, the Twins still seemed one arm short, even if you think Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober get more out of their fastballs than they should.
So here comes Chris Archer, who hasn't been a rotation-bolsterer since 2018. He missed all of 2020 recovering from procedures for thoracic outlet syndrome and a torn labrum in his hip, and the hip acted up on him in a 19-inning return to the Rays last year, along with some forearm tightness for good measure. That's how he only required a $3.5 million base salary for his purposes, although incentives can add up to $6 million to his compensation.
On one hand, he was the last pitcher remaining that Eno Sarris identified as having plus stuff...
The only remaining above-average starting pitcher by Pitching+ (which combines Stuff+ and physical properties of pitch with Location+ and the locations of the pitches) is Chris Archer. https://t.co/z4B7YcTyAX
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) March 19, 2022
... on the other hand, the Twins had a miserable time with identifying buy-low pitchers last year, what with J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colomé all being disasters, so this could be this year's Minnesota equivalent of the White Sox's right field situation.
Still, given that the White Sox signed Vince Velasquez for $3 million and Michael Kopech is only starting his Cactus League action this afternoon, this is a head-to-head signing that's worth filing away for later comparison. That later comparison may yield the kind of poor results that one-year starters typically produce, but still.
Speaking of the Twins, Robert Orr at Baseball Prospectus took a good look at Max Kepler, who was an under-the-radar reason why the Twins disappointed so greatly in 2021. Kepler looked like a fixture when he blasted 36 homers as part of the Bomba Squad in 2019, although Mitch Garver's 31 homers in 93 games suggest that the super bouncy ball wasn't properly taken into account.
Since then, Kepler has hit just .216/.311/.420 with 28 homers over 169 games, even though he has no issues with plate discipline (above-average walk and strikeout rates) and athleticism (13-for-13 in stolen-base attempts).
The problem is BABIP, and in a way that can't be written off as bad luck.
The league average hovers around .300, but Kepler's hasn't even reached .250 in any of the last four seasons. It turns out that he's a fly ball hitter, but he often hits the wrong kinds, with double-digit pop-up rates in each of the last five seasons. He also might be uniquely punished by his home park.
Using BP’s three-year park factors for LHB, it becomes a little clearer why players like Kepler and Kiriloff–those trying to do damage with extra base hits—are disadvantaged by Target Field compared to Luis Arraez, who mostly just wants to knock one in front of the outfielders for a single:
The Twins home park plays pretty neutral for lefty singles but damages their chances of getting any kind of extra base hit, especially home runs. This is anathema to a hitter like Kepler who lifts the ball attempting to slug for power. To some extent, Kepler’s swing and approach are at odds with the park he plays half his games in.
Baseball America surveyed the league to gauge the likelihood of upward mobility for four rebuilding teams, including the Tigers and Royals. With Detroit, the vaunted Rival Executives are wary of their strike-zone control, especially with Javier Báez bringing his sizable strikeout-to-walk disparity to a lineup full of them. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene give them plenty of upside, but there's a short-term downside in that they might not have anybody to hide behind.
The Royals inspire a little more fear because they've accomplished that seemingly Sisyphean task of improving plate discipline at the minor-league level, which has given a universally adored prospect like Bobby Witt Jr. plenty of surprising company.
Of key import, Royals minor leaguers improved their walk rate from 9.4% in 2019 to 11.3% in 2021. That organization-wide improvement in plate discipline not only fueled turnaround seasons from Melendez and Pratto, but gave rise to a substantial number of players who give the organization newfound prospect depth, with names including outfielder Kyle Isbel, first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, shortstop Nick Loftin and second baseman Michael Massey.
“I think they’ve done a really nice job up and down the system with guys who are not really names yet,” a veteran NL talent evaluator said. “They have these guys all of the sudden where it’s like good at-bat, good defender, not mistake-makers. They can play. And you go, ‘Wow, this guy controls the zone better than you think,” and, ‘This guy is a little better than you think.’"
The Cleveland Guardians haven't done much of anything this winter and spring, unless you count this glorious Cleveland Scene article about unsold tickets for the home opener. It's 353 words long, and 336 of them come in the first sentence.
They have made recent rumblings in the form of rumors regarding a contract extension for José Ramirez.
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Cleveland’s front office and José Ramírez’s camp have exchanged proposals on a potential contract extension for the All-Star third baseman. Discussions are expected to soon reach a critical point as an artificial deadline of Opening Day approaches next week, sources said.
The Guardians are motivated to secure a foundational piece of their roster beyond his two remaining years of team control. They are prepared to hand out a contract that would almost certainly more than double the largest in team history, the three-year, $60 million pact granted to Edwin Encarnación five years ago.
Ramírez is content to spend the rest of his career in Cleveland, both he and those close to him have expressed.
For Guardians fans, it beats the rumors earlier this spring, in which the Blue Jays were reportedly trying to pry him loose. It also eases the talk about the Guardians wasting the remaining months of Ramirez in a Cleveland uniform, while giving them a fixture to build a next lineup around.
But an extension doesn't add wins to this year's team, and so it's running in a distant third place behind the White Sox and Twins whether you're looking at FanGraphs or PECOTA.
