The White Sox entered the week with the unenviable combination of having played three more games than Guardians while trailing them by four in the loss column. It wouldn't be such a big deal if the Sox could guarantee defeats in those games, but the Guardians have agency, and they exercised it on Monday with a 5-4 victory over the Angels while the White Sox were idle.
Such victories strike an abnormally big blow for the White Sox's postseason chances this time of year, because while it's only a half-game in the standings, it represents one fewer game the White Sox can afford to lose. Here's how the standings looked entering Monday, with the FanGraphs chances of winning the division:
- Guardians, 73-65 (67.7%)
- White Sox, 72-69 (25.1%)
And here's what it looks like today:
- Guardians, 74-65 (72%)
- White Sox, 72-69 (21.9%)
The other projection systems won't offer a more optimistic assessment.
| Team | FanGraphs | PECOTA | B-Ref | 538 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 71.7 | 72.0 | 73.7 | 76.0 |
| White Sox | 21.9 | 21.5 | 22.2 | 18.0 |
The odds will take a hit even further if the White Sox lose against the Guardians on Thursday, since that would secure the season series for Cleveland, and thus the tiebreaker.
On the bright side, the White Sox's divisional chances on Aug. 30 were down to 5.4 percent, with Minnesota having a puncher's chance at 36.3 percent. The Guardians are flawed enough to give up ground if the Sox can take it, although the Guardians also stood their ground with a sweep of the Twins to send them reeling, and have four chances to do the same to the Sox.
It didn't have to be like this, especially since Bob Nightengale, last seen standing right next to Tony La Russa in the White Sox dugout on Sunday, wrote about the White Sox's managerial situation. The way he describes it, Cairo set a different tone immediately:
Cairo may be only an interim manager, but it was his fiery speech on his first day of the job, the players will tell you, that woke them up, perhaps just in time to save their season.
“He told us pretty much, 'If you don’t want to be here, then get the (expletive) out,'" All-Star closer Liam Hendriks told USA TODAY Sports. “It was eye-opening to some guys who really have never been told no.
“There needs to be repercussions. There needs to be some kind of a risk and reward. That was one thing that reverberated with some guys." [...]
If the White Sox wind up reaching the postseason, there will be plenty of speculation and theories, but the players will tell you that nothing was more powerful than Cairo’s speech. He firmly reminded them that mediocrity and complacency no longer would be tolerated.
“Sometimes, it’s good to just hear the truth,’’ Lynn said. “He pretty much told us that it’s time to do this, and if you’re not ready, you got to figure it out.
Spare Parts
Speaking of the Twins, they aren't officially out of it, but Aaron Gleeman effectively wrote a postmortem on their season. Besides injuries -- and they've had much bigger problems than the White Sox in this department -- he points to a front office that can't find starters it trusts a third time through, but also can't build a bullpen to compensate.
James Karinchak, whose ascent as a reliever was interrupted by the sticky-stuff crackdown, is back on track, and it's because he's reclaimed most of his spin rate. Rocco Baldelli tried to police the way Karinchak plays with his hair to no avail, but I'm wondering if the pitch clock is going to mess with his between-pitch routine.
Rob Arthur is skeptical that the restrictions on shifting will have the desired effect, because teams are getting better at positioning their individual defenders, especially in the outfield, which isn't affected by the regulations.
Terry Francona is 14 years younger than Tony La Russa, but his body might be 14 years older.
Francona managed only 14 of 60 regular-season games in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and missed the team’s wild-card series against the Yankees because of gastrointestinal and blood-clotting issues that led to a stay of several days in the ICU.
That winter, he developed gout, then a staph infection in his left big toe, spending 10 days in the hospital and using crutches or a boot for months. After opening the 2021 season as manager, he stepped away again on July 29, 2021, for a hip replacement and then, a few weeks later, toe surgery. He still wears a steel plate in his shoe to protect his toe.
Nick Madrigal's season might be over after a right groin strain resulted in his third trip to the IL this year. Even if he comes back, he won't be able to meaningfully improve his .249/.305/.282 line over 59 games. He'll also be a Super Two this winter, so his salary could also complicate matters if he can't stay on the field.
