I was planning on doing the math for what it would take for the White Sox to overcome the Guardians and win the AL Central, but I waited on the outcome of Wednesday's game before starting the project, and James Fegan ended up beating me to it.
Here's one time where I'm happy he did, because the picture is pretty gross.
If the White Sox can wrestle away the tiebreaker from the Guardians, they only have to match Cleveland game-for-game elsewhere. If they can't, then the White Sox either have to go something like 15-4 over these 19 games, or cross fingers for a staggering face-plant for Cleveland in what's left of its schedule.
That's one reason today's make-up game at Progressive Field is a must-win for the Sox. It was the reason, but then Terry Francona bumped back Triston McKenzie and gave Hunter Gaddis the start, which also adds to the urgency. No wins are guaranteed, and Gaddis could very well beat Lance Lynn the way Kyle Freeland beat Dylan Cease on Wednesday. But here's Francona being willing to lose a battle to win a war ...
“We’re not really at the point where we can matchup,” said manager Terry Francona. “We’re trying to protect our bullpen. We’re trying to protect (our staff) going into a doubleheader with a kid (Morris) who isn’t that stretched out starting Sunday.
“We’re trying to manage about nine different things. We just kind of talked it through.”
... so if it's the White Sox who end up losing said battle, they can't spin it any other way but disaster, and the situation takes a morbid turn.
Elvis Andrus is trying to prop up the White Sox's hopes ...
“The chance is going to be there. (The Guardians have) been playing perfect until now. If we keep winning series, we know that sooner or later they’re going to crumble, the closer we get."
... but it reminds me a little bit of Ryan Tepera implying Houston shenanigans during last year's ALDS. In both the cases, bulletin-board material isn't going to be what decides the series, but the guy who just got here is the guy is inviting the other team to run up the score.
Miguel Cairo has tried to address a number of shortcomings from Tony La Russa's leadership, and the degree of success depends on whether you think it's causation, correlation or coincidence. Between the lines of Bob Nightengale's story about Cairo and Ken Rosenthal's open letter to Tony La Russa, there seem to be a lot of uniformed White Sox personnel who are happy to turn the page.
But Luis Robert's waste of a roster spot shows that some of the White Sox's issues are too pervasive for a first-time manager to quickly conquer, especially if Cairo has been among those slow to see the problem the whole time.
Robert is 7-for-36 since he sprained his wrist against Jonathan Schoop's calf back on Aug. 12, and the denominator is a bigger a problem than the numerator, because Aug. 12 was 30 games ago.
It's even worse when you remove the brief burst of success he enjoyed against Baltimore that justified the Sox's early resistance to an IL stint. Let's start counting when he aggravated the injury on Aug. 25. That happened 18 games ago, and Robert is 1-for-14 with no extra-base hits, no walks and five strikeouts since. (Another weird elemenet: Despite the combination of painful swing and a slow bat, he hasn't tried bunting once.)
During that time, he went 10 days between starts, then five days between starts, and he made no appearances off the bench in specialist situations, either. After four more uncomfortable at-bats on Wednesday -- one of them resulting in an opposite-field single for Robert's lone hit of the month -- Fegan relayed tepid concern from Cairo:
Miguel Cairo conceded Luis Robert didn't look super comfortable with his left wrist in his last couple of at-bats Wednesday, even though he mixed in a single to right.
Cairo said he would talk with head trainer James Kruk in advance of deciding whether Robert will play Thursday.
Part of the reason Robert has such a grip on a spot is because Cairo rightly resists Leury García (only one start in the last nine games) and Adam Engel looks more and more like a non-tender after the season. The mistake is not acknowledging the options down below. Whether you prefer the less consequential call for Mark Payton or the bolder choice in Oscar Colás, the Sox still possessed more legitimate options than Robert in his current state. They just didn't care to explore them.
It's only fitting that the White Sox's season peters out with a self-imposed short roster, because that's how they've been playing all year. Whether it's allowing Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal to use the first half of the season as rehab stints, La Russa handing out no-hustle hall passes to two-thirds of the lineup, or Rick Hahn investing heavily in relievers who couldn't be used in back-to-back games, the Sox have acted as though there would always be enough games for their talent to win out. Patience is a virtue, but only in smaller amounts. Unlimited patience is passivity at best, and a dereliction of duties at worst when the number of games is so, so finite.
