PREAMBLE
I foresee the 2023 White Sox season going one of two ways. Either the core finally stays healthy to play in more than 130 games together and meet their promised expectations. They bounce back to win the AL Central and ultimately deliver a postseason series victory making most White Sox fans wonder, “Where the hell was this level of play last year?”
Or, the 2022 White Sox troubles carry over into 2023, and the season plays out like watching a car crash. Not just a fender bender, but the Corvette driving off the cliff into a ravine and exploding into flames. Parts of the core will be leaving the White Sox after the 2023 season, and if they wanted to conduct another rebuild, that would be a good time with so many players with one year left on their contracts.
No one knows how much longer Jerry Reinsdorf will be calling the shots, so perhaps 2023 will serve as a “Last Ride” type of season, like his famed Chicago Bulls team in the late ’90s. One would think the White Sox would push all of their chips into this offseason.
Maybe that’s what they peculiarly did last year. Shockingly, throwing more money at the bullpen doesn’t resolve second base and right field issues. Perhaps the front office could use a new perspective on what “Great hitters” look like, as Rick Hahn’s dead cat bounce gambles are not panning out.
No, I see the White Sox riding the core they built during the rebuild. The moves they make this offseason would be more support cast members to help carry the load, but it’s time for Tim Anderson/Yoan Moncada/Luis Robert/Eloy Jimenez/Andrew Vaughn to step up. If those five hitters don’t play more than 130 games at a 2.5+ WAR clip, it’s not going to matter too much who the White Sox add this offseason.
But let’s try anyways. Below are my thoughts on how I would handle this White Sox offseason. This a reminder that this isn’t what I’m predicting the White Sox will do. Often they do the complete opposite of what I request.
MANAGER
As of October 29, 2022, the Chicago White Sox have not named a new manager. I’ve made it straightforward that my preferred pick would be Houston Astros bench coach Joe Espada. I wanted Espada over AJ Hinch after the 2020 season, and after speaking with ex-White Sox legend and now Houston Astros broadcaster Geoff Blum, I’m entirely sold on his ability to be a big-league manager.
Late Saturday night during Game 2 of the World Series, MLB.com's Scott Merkin reported that Espada will not be the next White Sox manager.
My backup pick would be Atlanta Braves third base coach Ron Washington. Yes, I recall what happened in Texas, but Wash has made the most of his second chances helping the Oakland Athletics and Atlanta Braves mold their talented young players. The man knows how to coach up a defense and is a stern preacher of fundamentals. Two areas the 2022 White Sox sorely lacked and could use more effort.
Philadelphia Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long intrigues me because this Phillies squad can rake. I’m writing this after Game 1 of the 2022 World Series, where they slugged their way back from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Houston Astros. That lineup has a lot of talented hitters, but if Long has any magic in his ability to get the most out of hitters, the 2023 White Sox could also use that.
So my hiring order would be:
Joe Espada- Ron Washington
- Kevin Long
Now watch the White Sox hire Ozzie Guillen.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - TENDER
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M - TENDER
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M - TENDER
- Adam Engel: $2.3M - NON-TENDER
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M - TENDER
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M - (I forgot he was still with the White Sox) - NON-TENDER
- José Ruiz: $1M - TENDER
- Danny Mendick: $1M - TENDER
CLUB OPTIONS
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) - PICK UP
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) - DECLINE
PLAYER OPTIONS
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED, but I still think there’s a chance Pollock opts out if not happy with the new managerial hire.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) - LET GO
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) - LET GO
- Vince Velasquez ($3M) - LET GO
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) - LET GO
After these moves, my 26-man roster using the current players on the 40-man roster is at $171.7 million. That’s with the following internal options taking over these positions:
Second Base: Romy Gonzalez
Right Field: Oscar Colas
5th Starting Pitcher: Davis Martin
Let’s get to work. For trades, I’m using the Baseball Trade Values simulator, which you can find at https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/.
My shopping list:
- Left-handed bats
- Better second baseman
- Better corner outfielder
- 5th starting pitcher
- AAAA-quality starting pitchers to build depth
TRADE TARGET: OF Anthony Santander
Proposal:
White Sox receive: OF Anthony Santander
Orioles receive: RHP Norge Vera, 1B Wilfred Veras
Thoughts for those skimming:
Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter that hit 22 home runs vs. RHP in 2022 while playing better defense in right field than Gavin Sheets. His projected arbitration salary in 2022 is $7.5 million.
Long Thoughts:
After multiple seasons of being replacement-level, Anthony Santander put together a good year in 2022 for Baltimore hitting .240/.318/.455 with 33 home runs and 89 RBI. His FanGraphs WAR was 2.5, and Santander had a 120 wRC+. In the shortened 2020 season, Santander had a better slash line (.261/.315/.575) and was still on a 30-home run full regular-season pace.
Santander is entering his second year of arbitration, and according to MLB Trade Rumors estimate, his 2023 salary projects to be $7.5 million. He’s under team control through the 2024 season.
Why would Baltimore move Santander? Their rebuilding efforts are already bearing fruit, and they have more talented position players coming, especially in the outfield with Kyle Stowers and Colton Cowser. According to MLB.com, Cowser is the 40th-ranked prospect and had a 1.037 OPS in AA before being promoted to AAA. In 27 games with Norfolk Tide, Cowser hit .219/.339/.429 with five home runs. Cowser could use some more seasoning, but he’s close.
I don’t think the Orioles are moving Cedric Mullins, so if they are going to move any outfielders, it would be Santander for a younger, cheaper option. That freed-up payroll space will allow Orioles GM Mike Elias to go big game hunting for starting pitching help aiming for Jacob deGrom and/or Carlos Rodon.
What I like about Santander:
- 8.5% BB-rate in ‘22
- 18.9% K-rate in ‘22
- .214 ISO in ‘22
- Average exit velocity: 90.1 mph
- 33.3% career GB rate
- .913 OPS batting right-handed in ‘22
What’s to be concerned about Santander:
- 15.7% career Infield Fly rate
- .720 OPS batting left-handed in ‘22
White Sox fans will look at that OPS against right-handed pitching as a switch-hitter and think, “Great, another switch hitter who can’t hit right-handed pitching!” While it’s not an impressive OPS, Santander did hit 22 home runs against RHP in 2022, and that total alone would have led the White Sox in homers. It’s a swing-for-the-fences approach for Santander batting left-handed, and honestly, that’s what the White Sox need.
One part of Santander’s season that surprised me was him being one run above average defensively (1 OAA). That’s six runs better than Gavin Sheets was, so the White Sox would be improving their defense with this type of move. Huzzah!
Norge Vera is the headliner heading to Baltimore and is a very talented pitcher. Velocity hits 98 mph with an above-average slider, and Vera is the FutureSox #4 ranked White Sox prospect. Perhaps Vera can develop a third pitch he trusts in becoming a starting pitcher. Still, it’s looking like his professional future is a reliever that, with maximum effort, can hit triple digits with the fastball.
Wilfred Veras turns 20 years old on November 15th. He hit 17 home runs with the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers in 2022 before being part of Project Birmingham. In 12 games at AA, Veras did an excellent job of holding his own with three home runs and hitting .267/.313/.533 in 48 plate appearances. He strikes out a ton but has already demonstrated his ability to hit for power at a young age.
TRADING AWAY: Liam Hendriks
Proposal:
Dodgers receive: RHP Liam Hendriks
White Sox receive: RHP Ryan Pepiot, RHP Nick Nastrini, RHP Nick Frasso
Skimming Thoughts:
Liam Hendriks is still an elite closer, but the White Sox can’t devote this much money to a reliever with many roster holes. The Dodgers have very few roster holes, but one of them is high leverage reliever. Ryan Pepiot helps address the starting pitching depth issue.
Long Thoughts:
Liam Hendriks has been what Rick Hahn hoped for when signing him before the 2021 season. In 128.2 innings with the White Sox, Hendriks has 198 strikeouts to just 23 walks while compiling 75 saves. He's still one of the elite closers in Major League Baseball.
Here's the problem. There are 1,458+ innings played in a 162-game season. Hendriks appeared in 57.2 innings last year, which is 3.95% of the White Sox season. Hendriks is owed $14 million in 2023, making him the fourth-highest-paid White Sox player.
Why would any team in baseball have their fourth highest-paid player be one who only appears in 3.95% of the season?
You see, Hendriks is a luxury that very few teams in baseball can afford. When any team adds a reliever of his caliber, questions regarding the lineup and starting pitching have been addressed. Hendriks is someone that makes life a little easier in the 50+ games you have a lead late. But those teams dedicate more of their payroll to the lineup and starting pitching.
Hendriks is a luxury the 2023 White Sox cannot afford. He's someone that the Los Angeles Dodgers need after Craig Kimbrel didn't earn the trust of manager Dave Roberts. So let's go back to this well for another deal.
Moving Hendriks automatically vests his 2024 option at $15 million. That's the retail rate for elite closers, which the high-spending Dodgers won't bat an eye about. Craig Kimbrel cost the Dodgers $16 million in 2022, so Hendriks comes at a slight discount in 2023.
The Dodgers have seven Top 100 prospects (!) on MLB.com. One prospect that could be of interest is left-handed hitter Michael Busch. Currently the 42-ranked prospect, Busch hit .266/.343/.480 in AAA with 32 doubles and 21 home runs. He also plays second base, a need for the White Sox. Dodgers are stacked at the position, with Gavin Lux and Max Muncy still part of the fold.
Busch would be the desired trade target, but the deal on Baseball Trade Values fails. So let's look at pitching options.
RHP Ryan Pepiot cruised in AAA during 2022, going 9-1 with a 2.56 ERA throughout 91.1 innings. His 95-mph four-seamer and mid-80s changeup carried him to the majors, where he appeared in nine games, making seven starts. In 36.1 innings, Pepiot struck out 42 batters, which is good. However, he walked more batters than allowed hits (27 BB to 26 H) and gave up six home runs. Pepiot is impressive, but he's still got work to do.
The White Sox starting pitching depth is equivalent to a kiddie pool. Acquiring Pepiot would give the White Sox a pitcher to compete for the spot Johnny Cueto is leaving behind. Or if the White Sox want to bring Cueto back or sign someone else, Pepiot is ready to fill in when there's an injury.
Nick Nastrini and Nick Frasso pitched in AA during 2022. Nastrini is projected to be a starting pitcher who pairs a 94-mph fastball with a slider and curveball. A big high-spin guy is the type of pitcher the White Sox targeted in last year's draft. Frasso has a big fastball that sits at 97 mph, but endurance and past arm injuries have been an issue. His path to the majors appears to be in the bullpen.
FREE AGENT TARGET: 2B Kolten Wong
Skimming Thoughts:
Despite a rough defensive season in 2022, Kolten Wong is a multiple Gold Glove winner at second base and had a .845 OPS vs. RHP last season.
Long Thoughts:
Let's start with the bad: Kolten Wong committed 17 errors in 2022. The breakdown was ten fielding errors and seven throwing errors. Wong was tied for second-worst OAA at second base with -9 outs below average, with most of that total charging on grounders. He has a $10 million club option with a $2 million buyout that the Milwaukee Brewers are leaning towards declining as they have ready-to-go internal options with Luis Urias and Brice Turang.
Despite the poor glove, Wong was a 2.5 WAR player, according to FanGraphs, in large thanks to his bat. Wong hit a career-high 15 home runs in 2022 with a .251/.339/.430 slash line that was good for 116 wRC+. His walk rate was 9.3% while maintaining his career norm of a <20% K-rate.
Back to the glove. What makes 2022 eye-opening is that Wong only committed two errors in 2021 in 116 games and shortened 2020 in 53 games. In a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story, Wong chalked up the poor performance due to the Lockout cutting down the time in Spring Training.
"I know I'm not going to make errors like this every year. It's been a tough year for me, having a few tough plays and then I think just the shortened spring training didn't give me enough time to get my glove broken into how I would like."
What doesn't help Wong's case is he committed six of his errors in September.
Signing Wong hopes the 2021 defensive version returns with a typical offseason of preparation and a renewed focus on the craft during Spring Training. The White Sox should target Wong because of his ability to mash right-handed pitching. As a true left-handed bat, Wong hit .277/.357/.489 with 14 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2022. That's the type of bat the White Sox sorely need to complete their lineup.
Wong signed a two-year, $18 million deal with Milwaukee in February 2021, and I would make a similar offer when the Brewers decline his third-year option.
Contract Offer: 2 years, $20 million
2023: $8 million (Paired with his $2 million from Milwaukee, still gets $10 million in ‘23)
2024: $10 million club option; $2 million buyout
Payroll Update:
After acquiring Anthony Santander and Kolten Wong and trading Liam Hendriks to Los Angeles for Ryan Pepiot, my current payroll is $172.50 million.
If the White Sox are not slashing payroll, as this exercise is trying to speak into existence, I’ve got $17.5 million to make another addition. That should be enough to bring back Johnny Cueto if I desired.
ONE LAST MOVE: Signing a LHSP
Skimming Thoughts:
Sign Sean Manaea hoping Ethan Katz can fix’em.
Long Thoughts:
I noticed from the 2022 season how bad Cleveland is hitting left-handed pitching. The Guardians had a .646 OPS against lefties which was 28th in MLB. Minnesota and Detroit also struggled against left-handed pitching with team OPS of .701, ranking 20th in MLB. If I were to spend this remaining amount on a starting pitcher, I’m looking at the available left-handers.
Three come to mind: Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson from the Dodgers, and popular preseason trade target Sean Manaea from the Padres.
Andrew Heaney ($8.5 million in 2022)
Positives: 35.5% K-rate (!), vs. right-handers: .210/.278/.448
Concerns: Only 72.2 innings in 2022 in 16 appearances. Has dealt with shoulder pain in the past.
Tyler Anderson ($8.5 million in 2022)
Positives: 2.57 ERA in 30 appearances (28 starts) spanning 178.2 innings. Avoids barrels.
Concerns: 19.5% K-rate
Sean Manaea ($9.75 million in 2022)
Positives: Uh, made 28 starts?
Concerns: A lot.
None of these three are perfect, but it would be to Tyler Anderson most comfortable handing over a $10+ million contract in 2022. He’s proven the ability to eat innings, even though he doesn’t pile up strikeouts. My concern is if the White Sox are a good fit for Anderson. With the play being put into play often, it requires better defensive play to take advantage of Anderson’s addition.
Also, word out of Hollywood is the Dodgers have great interest in bringing back Anderson. A bidding war with one of the league’s top spenders would be advantageous for Anderson, and he may require more than a three-year contract to sign. Does it make sense from a White Sox perspective to sign Anderson to a four or five-year deal at $15 million AAV? This team could be rebuilding again in 2024.
Despite the fantastic strikeout rate, I don’t trust Heaney’s shoulder enough to feel comfortable giving him $12+ million. There’s a high chance he can’t throw 100+ innings.
Which circles back to Sean Manaea. I liked Manaea when he was with Oakland in 2021 and thought he could help the White Sox with their 5th starting spot before the season began. Of course, San Diego also had plans for Manaea and made that trade. Like many pitchers the Padres have acquired, Manaea struggled greatly. It’s a very similar season to Lucas Giolito, but Manaea’s came in a contract year. That’s rough.
Scott Boras represents Manaea, so whatever team comes calling will have to be creative with their offer. He’s only 30 years old and could use a promising 2023 campaign to re-establish his market. Boras does a terrific job of setting up deals that give that opportunity for his pitching clients but also provide a safety net in case they don’t have vast improvements.
A potential deal for Manaea could be similar to Carlos Rodon’s with San Francisco. The headline says it’s a two-year contract, but a one-year deal with a Player Option will be exercised if that pitcher has an outstanding season. Rodon did have an exceptional 2022 season, and he’ll be expected to enter free agency again to get that coveted $100+ million deal. Manaea will not get $20+ million AAV, but a similar format could be helpful for both sides.
My offer to Manaea would be two years, $25 million. It would break down to $12.5 million in 2023 and a Player Option for $12.5 million in 2024 or a $2.5 million buyout. I’m hoping in this scenario, Ethan Katz can fix Manaea.
Clearance Rack Signings
To help with starting pitcher depth and protection against injuries that may occur during Spring Training, I offer minor league deals to RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez and Chad Kuhl. Both have elected free agency after being optioned to the minors. They haven’t been very good in the majors, but if they are looking for a home in 2023, the White Sox could use them in Charlotte.
SUMMARY
Lineup:
- Tim Anderson - Shortstop
- Kolten Wong - Second Base
- Eloy Jimenez - Designated Hitter
- Anthony Santander - Right Field
- Luis Robert - Center Field
- Andrew Vaughn - First Base
- Yasmani Grandal - Catcher
- AJ Pollock - Left Field
- Yoan Moncada - Third Base
Bench:
- Seby Zavala
- Danny Mendick
- Leury Garcia
- Gavin Sheets
Starting Pitchers:
- Dylan Cease
- Lance Lynn
- Lucas Giolito
- Michael Kopech
- Sean Manaea
Bullpen:
- Closer: Reynaldo Lopez
- Joe Kelly
- Kendall Graveman
- Aaron Bummer
- Garrett Crochet
- Jake Diekman
- Jimmy Lambert
- Jose Ruiz
Total Payroll: $185 million
I’d expect PECOTA and ZiPS to review my 26-man roster and project an 83-79 record in 2023. Technically that’s an improvement over what happened in 2022, but as I wrote in the preamble, so much of 2023 depends on how the core performs. This plan would provide improvements at second base and right field and adds more starting pitching depth which is desperately needed. But these are not impact players who will have 4+ WAR seasons. It would be great if they did, but it shouldn’t be expected.
Those impact seasons must come from Tim Anderson/Yoan Moncada/Eloy Jimenez/Luis Robert/Dylan Cease/Lucas Giolito/Lance Lynn. If those seven have bounce-back seasons in 2023, the White Sox can swerve back into the contention window and avoid driving off the cliff for another season.
