BeefLoaf’s Kicking and Screaming Post-Abreu Era White Sox

PREAMBLE

The White Sox still have a core of talent that I believe in, even after losing our lord and savior Jose Abreu.  Still, we’ll need to fill in around the edges, improve certain aspects of the team and restore some depth.  Last year in this very plan, I was correct on two free agent acquisitions, Josh Harrison and Vince Velasquez, neither of those lit the world on fire, so hopefully this year I’m totally wrong and their acquisitions crush.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player and their projected 2022 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.

• Lucas Giolito: $10.8M - TENDER
• Dylan Cease: $5.3M - TENDER
• Reynaldo López; $3.3M - TENDER
• Adam Engel: $2.3M – NON-TENDER
• Michael Kopech: $2.2M - TENDER
• Kyle Crick: $1.5M – NON-TENDER
• José Ruiz: $1M – NON-TENDER
• Danny Mendick: $1M – TENDER

 There are two tough choices here, Ruiz is definitely serviceable at his pricing, but I really want to go in another direction. And Mendick for $1M is fine.  I’m not in position to trust Romy, Lenyn and Popeye, oh my…YET.

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.

• Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) PICK UP
• Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) DECLINE / BUY OUT

I thought about keeping Harrison who is a totally reasonable option at 2b, but he’ll be 36 next year, so might as well search elsewhere for a solution at the keystone.

PLAYER OPTIONS

Write “exercised” or “takes buyout.” The question here is whether you think Pollock could do better than one year and $8 million on the open market. I’m filling it in with “exercised” unless you can provide a compelling argument against it.

• AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED

I will never hear the flipping end of it from Josh Nelson is Pollock opts out, but this seems like a no brainer to me.  He ain’t getting $8M from anywhere but the Mega Millions.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, extend qualifying offer, or let go?

• José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) LET GO
• Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) LET GO
• Vince Velasquez ($3M) RESIGN – same deal, 1 yr - $3M
• Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) LET GO

I love Jose, but he’s going somewhere else and hopefully he can get back to the playoffs, he deserves it.  I look forward to the White Sox resigning him for his age 42 season and he’ll still be better than Andrew Vaughn.

I am re-signing Vinny Velo.  It felt like when he finally got the desired role of long man / occasional high leverage reliever, he was decent.  I think a full off-season with Katz and a little more comfortability with the role and he’ll be nice.

MANAGER

Name your manager from the available candidates as of Oct. 28. Feel free to offer any rationale, or any other coaching staff adjustments.

Pedro Grifol – Former KC Royals bench coach

No clue how this will go, but he seems to be respected enough.  Let’s face it, I’ve seen tons of Bears coaches arrive in town with credentials and suck eggs, so Imma just wait and see what happens here.

FREE AGENTS

List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract.

I want to start this off by saying that I really hate this free agent class.  It’s overall poor and really doesn’t have much in the mid-market that fits the White Sox needs.

No. 1: David Peralta (one year, $8,000,000)

I get that Peralta was pretty meh after the deadline trade to the Rays.  I also get that Peralta is going to be 36 years old in 2023.  However, two things make this a nice fit for me. 1) He’s a lefty that still hits RHP well (116 wRC+ vs RHP last year, 121 wRC+ vs RHP for his career).  2) He was a good defender in LF last season, 5 Outs Above Average.  The delta of moving Pollock and Vaughn out of left field on defense and putting in Peralta most days is a huge gain.

No. 2: Michael Lorenzen (one year, $7,000,000, with a team option for 2024 for $10,000,000 with a $1,000,000 buy-out)

Lorenzen became a full-time starting pitcher in 2022 and was okay.  I am not sure the LA Angels know how to bring along starting pitching so maybe he was a victim of circumstance.  I do know though that the White Sox are in need of pitching depth and they tend to like Katz projects to be good athletes (see Vinny Velo) and Lorenzen, the part-time two way player is definitely that.  I like this project to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle.

No. 3: Vince Velasquez (one year, $3,000,000)

The aforementioned Vinny Velo comes back on a similar deal to the previous year.  I like the prospects of him improving into a role that won’t yank him back into the starting rotation.

No. 4: Michael Pineda (one year, $2,500,000)

Michael Pineda sucked in 2022.  He was awful.  He’s been awful and not particularly durable.  Not as fat as Jesus Montero (whom he was once traded for), but still fat.  He’s done as a starting pitcher for me.  I’m bringing him in as a reliever and I am going to just tell him to throw his slider, which is still a very good pitch for him, like 70% of the time.  I think he could be a nice reliever with just that one weapon.  Let’s gamble!

TRADES

Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them. A good example of a bad idea:

No. 1: Trade Liam Hendriks to Los Angeles Dodgers for Bobby Miller SP and Nick Robertson RP.

This would make two years in a row that the White Sox dealt a closer to the Dodgers, although this one is under much different conditions. If you are the Dodgers and looking at ways to improve a roster that won 111 games in the regular season, but got dumped out of the playoffs in the division series, there’s nary a few spots in which you can do it. Adding possibly the top closer in the game would do just that and lengthen a bullpen that was an achilles heel in their series loss to the Padres. For a White Sox team that is looking to shuffle the deck chairs and cut some payroll, this effectively does both.

Bobby Miller is a top starting pitching prospect in baseball, he has all the pitches and stuff, just struggles enough with command where it puts him being a starting pitcher in doubt. Reminds me lots of Dylan Cease and that was one story that turned out pretty frickin’ happy for us White Sox fans.

Nick Robertson is basically a major league ready reliever on the strength of an excellent fastball. That’s also his limiting factor as he hasn’t really developed a dependable secondary pitch that would allow him to be dependable in high leverage. If this White Sox staff could get ReyLo and Lambo lined up to do this, why not go in the other direction and help this kid develop his second pitch.

No. 2: Trade Andrew Vaughn to Tampa Bay Rays for Brandon Lowe 2B and Joe LaSorsa RP.

The White Sox are trying to clear up First Base / Designated Hitter and the most valuable tradeable commodity is Andrew Vaughn since he is still on a minimum salary and will just be entering arbitration in 2024. That’s attractive to most teams, but especially teams like Tampa.

The Rays on the other hand are a likely trade partner in this scenario as they are lacking a bit at Right-Handed Power at First Base / Designated Hitter. They also have the self-imposed tiniest mini-payroll budget in MLB and Brandon Lowe has quickly become their 3rd highest paid player entering 2023 at $5.25M. Lowe is a Second Baseman by trade, but can flex to the outfield corners without hurting you too bad. He was an elite hitter in 2020 and 2021, but 2022 was a down year for him mostly due to a back injury. He’s due the aforementioned $5.25M in ’23 an $8.75M in ’24, before he has two club options for $10.5M and $11.5M in ’25 and ’26. If all works out (which it seldom does), Lowe would be the long-term solution at keystone until the official close of the contention window.

Joe LaSorsa is a lefty reliever that is due for a 40-man spot that the Rays can’t afford to provide him, so he’s a nice addition to the deal for the White Sox who are thirsting for quality bullpen alternatives with minor league options. He has much more utility to the White Sox than a Rays team bursting at the seams with such products.

No. 3: Trade Norge Vera and Jared Kelley to Baltimore Orioles for Anthony Santander OF.

The Orioles surprising 2022 campaign has them improving into a young core a little quicker than I would’ve thought. However, since this is the brain trust that materially brought along the Houston Astros current dynasty, they are constantly looking to enrich their farm system even as the major league club careens towards potential playoff appearances.

That’s where Santander comes in, he’s going to make $7.442 million this season (just signed a 1 year deal in his 3rd Arbitration year, he’s a super two so he’ll have a 4th Arbitration year in 2024) and has just had his first 2 fWAR or better season (2.5 fWAR to be exact). This is the perfect time for the O’s to ship him off and turn him into more stuff that helps them for another half decade.

For the White Sox, Santander can competently hold the baton in RF until Oscar Colas is ready to claim it from him, then his switch hittingness and corner outfielderness will be much needed depth on a roster that has really lacked it. But, the real reason to bring Santander in is POWER. He’s hits dongers. Ball go far, Team go far. He hit 33 tanks last year and I don’t trust anyone not named Eloy Jimenez on this current White Sox roster to match that in 2023. Having control of the player in 2024 makes me hear Rick Hahn’s music.

In Vera and Kelley the Orioles are adding much needed depth to their farm system on the pitching side. As good as the Orioles have been at stitching together a bullpen out of thin air, that’s tougher to do on the starting pitching side. It can get expensive and even though the O’s have the top pitching prospect in the game on their farm in Grayson Rodriguez, they don’t have a ton behind that.

Vera has already flashed his plus fastball, materially against underaged / overwhelmed competition. More data is necessary to see what his eventually upside will be. Kelley was a top prospect in his draft class and the White Sox nabbed him in round 2 of the 2020 draft out of high school with an over-slot bonus. He’s flashed that pedigree in 2 seasons in the minors, but he’s failed to live up to the hype in actual results to this point. Much of the critiques of Kelley come with the caveat that he needs to work on his “conditioning”. This is code for he’s #108Thicc. We should probably add him to the #108WeightLoss competition, he’d likely benefit.

No. 4: Trade Aaron Bummer and Danny Mendick to Seattle Mariners for Kyle Lewis OF and Justus Sheffield SP.

Jerry DiPoto LOVES to deal. In this instance though, he is taking the lower upside of the gamble. Aaron Bummer has been great in the past, but even the current iteration of Aaron Bummer has been a very good dependable left handed reliever who throws a billion ground balls. Seattle can utilize that with Eugenio Suarez (noted BeefLoaf guy) and JP Crawford capably manning the left side of the infield. In return the White Sox receive two lottery tickets.

Kyle Lewis was the 2020 AL ROY, he was expected to be the Mariners Centerfielder of the future until a devastating knee injury wiped out most of his 2021 and 2022 seasons. Healthy in the 2nd half of 2022, he struggled mightily in his return to the Mariners at the plate and wasn’t even given a September call up by the club, nor was he added to the playoff roster. After initially refusing to play in Triple-A Tacoma after his assignment, he did hit, .879 OPS 116 wRC+. The hope here is to restore Lewis’ bat and make him an answer in a corner outfield spot.

Justus Sheffield had a lot of promise, was once a top 100 prospect and has basically sucked so far for the Mariners. He’s been up and down with the Mariners not finding much success at all. The hope here is to get him with Ethan Katz and see what the Sox can get out of him. He and Lewis, have minor league options remaining (1 and 2 respectively), so even if it takes a minute to get this going, they add to the teams depth.

Danny Mendick is here, because well, every team can kinda use a Danny Mendick and with him getting an arbitration raise and the White Sox already having, Leury Garcia, Romy Gonzalez and Lenyn Sosa in house, I figured Seattle might want to extend their bench a bit.

SUMMARY

By leveraging the one of the 1b / dh types on the trade market, and platooning two others, I have turned the roster into a more flexible one.  One that can take advantage of platoon splits, utilize pinch hitters and put Leury Garcia into his more appropriate role of late game pinch runner / defender.