Rock_Beats_Papr Presents: A Balanced Baseball Team
PREAMBLE
I wrapped this OPP up while watching the Astro’s win game 5 with largely home-grown players. The failures that brought us the 2022 White Sox are systemic and this offseason will need to be spent overhauling the players and the staff. The core is not who we thought it may be, but there are some old friend alerts scattered throughout this plan.
The failings of last offseason where evident from the start, the main goal of this OPP is to create a balanced complimentary baseball team that can win in 2023 and 2024. Trading from strengths and letting franchise players walk is always risky. Sending over $20 million dollars to other teams may give Jerry a heart attack. Major changes to the roster will require Jerry to allow Hahn to operate without interference. I did not really believe that Jerry and Kenny were holding back Hahn until I saw just how happy Hahn was at the Grifol introduction. I did not know that Hahn was still able to smile like that. This is his guy, so hopefully, this will be his offseason. Set the budget and walkaway, Jerry.
As always, since I am not a major league baseball staff member and do not have time to research how realistic these trades are, I have relied on https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/. I know that some of you fine folks do not put much stock into this simulator, but it is the tool I have to work with. With that caveat, an no further ado – “Here is your 2023 WHITE SOX!” ~ Gene Honda voice over.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Lucas Giolito: $10.8M
Tender – See more on the man that many thought would anchor this staff for 5+ years last offseason below.
- Dylan Cease: $5.3M
Tender – Call me anything you want after the end of this OPP, but you cannot say I have lost my mind completely.
- Reynaldo López; $3.3M
Tender – The bullpen can be volatile, let’s hope Reynaldo has found himself. $3.3 million dollar bet is worth that chance.
- Adam Engel: $2.3M
Non-tender - I still hold that Engel could have been an ideal 4th outfielder on a competitive team, but age seems to have started to diminish his best attribute.
- Michael Kopech: $2.2M
Tender – See Cease above.
- Kyle Crick: $1.5M
Non-tender – I have nothing else to add.
- José Ruiz: $1M
Non-tender – I was on the fence, but Jim and Josh talking about his lack of options kicked me into the non-tender crowd. I am guessing he will be non-tendered more often than not in everyone else’s plans.
- Danny Mendick: $1M
Tender – What might have been last season if not for Haseley? It is important to have major league depth when making a push for the post season. While that could also apply to Engel, I think Danny has more to give, if he comes back to form after surgery.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout)
Pick up – I do not understand the odd vitriol that came out against TA for a month there when he was on the IL. He is still the heart of this team, especially with Jose gone. Oops, spoiler.
- Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout)
Buyout – Josh was an ok player, but we need to squeeze every once of blood out of this rock to keep the budget down and we can find adequate play for cheaper than $4.125 million.
PLAYER OPTIONS
- AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) — EXERCISED
Exercised – He is guaranteed $5million, so you can argue that he can walk and get a $10 million contract elsewhere, but there are other OF options and he is starting to get long in the tooth.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- José Abreu (Made $18M in 2021)
Let Go – As new skip, Pedro Grifol, rhetorically answered in his opening presser “all 30 teams would love to have a Jose Abreu”. I agree, but seems like a parting is the best thing to do with the money needing to be allocated elsewhere and having 3 first base types in the wings.
- Johnny Cueto ($4.2M)
Let Go – The only regret from this last offseason was not signing Johnny to a 3 year deal, right? I mean, Hahn executed everything else to perfection. In all seriousness, I want to bring him back, but I looked elsewhere to round out the rotation.
- Vince Velasquez ($3M)
Let Go – How many innings did he actually pitch again? I cannot remember a single one…
- Elvis Andrus ($14.25M)
Let Go – This is probably indicative of how the season went. 4 MLB free agents, and none of them are brought back, despite some good to great performances. Can’t afford Andrus, especially not with TA healthy.
MANAGER
Well, Pedro Grifol and Charlie Montoyo were already announced. I am pleasantly surprised thus far. Though it is easy to win press conferences and it will be a long time before they even helm a game together and even longer before we know if what they are doing is working. I am also optimistic that Hahn said the rest of the staff will likely be filled from outside the organization. I would love someone from the Braves or Rays organization to take over as hitting coach. They have been top 5 OPS+ teams the last 3 years. Blue Jays have been up there, too, but hopefully Montoyo can share wisdom there. Given that he was with the Rays for a long time, maybe he know of some good minds to poach from that organization to help Grifol round out the staff.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Omar Narvaez (two year, $7 million total [$3 million 2023 salary]). Old friend alert numero uno. White Sox will need a veteran catcher that still has some upside and is cheap. Omar fits all those categories. Between Omar, Perez, and Zavala, I am really hoping for at least an average catcher season.
No. 2: Jackie Bradley Jr (two year, $3 million total [$1.5 million 2023 salary]). Let’s address the outfield defense. JBJ is not the man that baseball thought he would be nearly a decade ago. But, he is still a good defensive outfielder and a lefty bat. His last good offensive performance was 2020. Maybe he finds some old form, maybe not. He is a decent defensive replacement and does not hinder Oscar Colas should he prove to be worthy of playing time in 2023.
No. 3: Carlos Rodon (six year, $172 million total [$28.5 million 2023 salary]). As I said in the preamble, Jerry needs to set the 2023 budget and walk away. Let Hahn talk to Boras and bring Carlos back to the southside. I am staying under the cap set by Jim, so let me dream. A top three of Rodon, Cease, and Lynn should help the White Sox to a division title.
TRADES
No. 1: Mets get – Yasmani Grandal, $16 million, Cesar Prieto. Orioles get – Lucas Giolito, Jimmy Lambert, Jose Rodriguez, Joey Lucchesi. White Sox get – Cedric Mullins.
I hope this is painful enough, Josh. The Mets won over 100 games without much production from the catcher position. They had 7 total home runs from 4 players. They get a flyer on a veteran catcher that, if healthy, can at least double that by himself. White Sox eat $16 million of Grandal’s salary, too. To bring Cedric Mullins to the White Sox, the Orioles get 2.5 starting pitchers (depending on how they want to use Lambert). The obvious prize is Giolito. This is what really hurts here. But Mullins will be a new core player on this team with years of team control and provides good to great defense and offense and is a lefty bat.
No. 2: Marlins get – Jake Burger, AJ Pollock, Bryan Ramos, $8 million. White Sox get – Braxton Garrett.
Braxton Garrett was an afterthought this year for the Marlins – then he finally pitched the way they thought he could when he was a 1st round pick in 2016. He did not have a full year under his belt but his trade stock is higher than it has been. Given the Marlins pitching depth and need for offense, I think a trade can be had. AJ Pollock would have lead their OFers in homers last year, Jake Burger has the potential to be better offensively than their current third baseman or can be plugged in at DH with Bryan Ramos accelerating his timeline and joining the Marlins in 2023. I do not like trading the only depth at 3rd behind Yoan, but there is not many other viable trade pieces left in the cupboard.
No. 3: Yankees get – Liam Hendriks White Sox get – Gleyber Torres, Wandy Peralta Randy Vasquez.
Getting Gleyber Torres at second will help lengthen the White Sox lineup. It comes at a great cost to the bull pen though. Yankees also provide a AAA starter and a cheap lefty bullpen arm to bring in one of the best closers in the game. Especially with how they flirted with trading Torres in 2022 and with the way Chapman exited the team right before the postseason started, I think this makes sense for both sides.
SUMMARY
The final payroll with all these maneuvers is $187,000,000. A whole $3 million to spare! The 26 man roster looks like this:
SP
Carlos Rodon
Lance Lynn
Dylan Cease
Micheal Kopech
Braxton Garrett
RP
Kendall Graveman (CL)
Aaron Bummer (SU)
Reynaldo López (SU)
Jake Diekman
Matt Foster
Tanner Banks
Wandy Peralta
Joe Kelly
C
Seby Zavala
Omar Narvaez
IF
Andrew Vaughn
Gleyber Torres
Tim Anderson
Yoán Moncada
Leury Garcia
Danny Mendick
DH
Gavin Sheets/Jiménez
Outfielders
Eloy Jiménez/Sheets
Cedric Mullins
Jackie Bradley Jr
Luis Robert
My initial plans A through Z had Leury Garcia jettisoned from the team. But eating another salary and then finding his replacement is hard. The starting outfield opening day is likely Mullins, Robert, JBJ with Eloy at DH. That leaves a man like Leury that can competently play any position on the field as a great guy to have on the bench. He is still making too much money, but there was apparently one too many mistakes last offseason that could not be fixed this go around. Leury lives to fight another year.
The pitching staff may very well take a step back and I may live to regret trading Giolito and Hendriks. They are replaced in their respective roles by unproven but talented Braxton Garrett and good but not great Kendall Graveman. There are always pitchers at the deadline to be found. The farm system needs to take some steps forward to provide some trade bait should it be needed.
For those (meaning no one) keeping track, this is the second OPP in a row I have traded Burger to the Marlins. So next OPP, when I do that for the third time, it will finally happen.
This team will still rely on Vaughn, Moncada, and Sheets to get better and for Eloy and TA to stay healthy. There are other options though to facilitate the offense with Torres, Robert, and Mullins. The defense should be improved overall and pitching will hopefully stay on track. This team could win 88 to 92 games which should be good enough for the 2023 AL Central Division title. We will have to wait 11 months to find out though.
