Considering we'd recently discussed how Guaranteed Rate Field was the American League's friendliest park for left-handed power hitters in 2022, it didn't surprise me that Andrew Benintendi's profile automatically stood to benefit from a move from Kauffman Stadium.
The size of the boost did surprise me. Statcast said Benintendi's home run total from the last two years nearly would have doubled if he played all of his games at 35th and Shields.
That's huge difference, especially in the 2021 column. Sure, 2022 is a 100-percent jump, but Andrew Vaughn provides a fresh example of the difference between 29 and 17, given that he led the 2022 White Sox with the latter number last year. Imagine how easier it'd be to move on from José Abreu if he'd hit the former.
But is this number reliable? In terms of projected distance, you can see what Statcast is getting at. Here's the chart of Benintendi's fly balls that traveled at least 330 feet displayed over Kauffman Stadium's dimensions...
... and here's what it looks like when you shift the overlay to Guaranteed Rate Field.
But I wanted to see what it looks like in practice by finding similar contact -- launch angles, exit velocities and and directions -- to understand where that batted ball might end up in Chicago.
Perhaps it's because the White Sox haven't boasted the kind of left-handed power that takes advantage of their surroundings, but it's surprisingly hard to find comps within a couple of degrees and miles per hour, at least over the last two years. It doesn't make sense to look back beyond that, because Benintendi barely played in 2020, and the baseball is was too different in 2019.
Still, I came up with a few that show that Benintendi should get a boost, at least in one direction.
Pull field
Here's a fly ball from Andrew Benintendi off Liam Hendriks at Kauffman Stadium on July 27, 2021. It leaves the bat at 96.9 mph at a launch angle of 30 degrees with a projected hit distance of 374, and it dies in Brian Goodwin's glove on the warning track, a step short of the fence.
Here's a fly ball hit by Baltimore's DJ Stewart two months earlier on May 30, 2021. It's hit at 97.3 mph at a launch angle of 31 degrees. Except this one is hit at Guaranteed Rate Field, where it bounces off the top of the right field fence and over for a solo shot.
These are basically one on top of each other.
Sometimes you don't need to see an exactly identical fly ball to get an idea of where would end up, like this one off Minnesota's Joe Ryan back on April 21, 2022.
That one at Guaranteed Rate Field ends up threatening the former Goose Island, like a few similarly hit homers did over the last few years.
Straightaway center
The long out to center on Benintendi's spray chart came at Coors Field, which is an environment unto itself. The double came at the K, a 104.1-mph sizzler with a launch angle of 29 degrees back on June 4, 2021. Despite a projected distance of 416 feet, it piffed off the top of the center-field wall.
Ryan O'Hearn, Benintendi's teammate in Kansas City, hit the most similar ball over the last two years at Guaranteed Rate Field -- a launch angle of 30 degrees, an exit velocity of 104 mph, and a projected distance of 411 feet. It cleared the center field wall by enough margin to limit Goodwin to only an illusory chance at robbery.
There were three other balls hit with a similar velocity and launch angle to center, and all cleared the wall.
Opposite field
Here's a fly ball by Benintendi off Lucas Giolito on July 28, 2021, that is flagged down ... by ... (checks notes) ... I'm told this is Andrew Vaughn making a running catch against the fence. It's hit with a 97.2 mph exit velocity at 27 degrees, traveling a projected distance of 363 feet.
Meanwhile, here's Seth Brown going the same way at 97.9 mph and 30 degrees, and while it travels just 359 feet, it sneaks into the White Sox bullpen a month later.
However, while I can pull that one example, I'd caution against saying that Benintendi can make White Sox relievers be on alert for souvenirs with ease. Most of the near-misses/close calls on Benintendi's charts registered similar velocities, and when you search all the opposite-field fly balls that have left the bats of left-handed hitters at Guaranteed Rate Field with exit velocities between 96 and 99 mph, Brown's is the only one to actually clear the fence.
If opposite-field homers remain as hard to come by as they were in 2022, then Benintendi's lesser brand of all-fields power might result in a familiar amount of tantalizing warning-track flies. On the other hand, if the baseball changes even the slightest amount in favor of the hitter, he could benefit as much as anybody from the seven feet they lost on barrels going the other way.
PERTINENT: Drop in opposite-field homers forces White Sox to consider new directions
Ideally, the White Sox wouldn't have to wait around until mid-May to understand if they signed another guy who can't count on his usual delivery of dirt-cheap oppo tacos. There's plenty to be gained simply from pulling the ball with moderate authority at Guaranteed Rate Field, if that's something he can do with more regularity.
It does seem like Benintendi would be incentivized to pull the ball in a way that has never rewarded him at Fenway Park or Kauffman. He told The Athletic during his first-ever All-Star Game that he tailored his approach for his environs ...
My approach right now is realizing I’m not going to hit 35 homers. It’s getting on base, be a tough out, see pitches, use the whole field. This year, it’s finally come together. Playing in Kauffman Stadium, too, it’s not easy to hit a ball out of there. Just spraying the ball all over the field. It was more just approach, trying to go straight right field, and then you’re susceptible to an off-speed pitch. I’m trying to go straight up the middle and if you’re early, you’re early. If you’re late, you’ve still got the left field line.
... and that could very well be true. It could also be something that's said when one just doesn't want to feel like talking about a really disappointing home run total while everything else is more or less terrific.
Here's where we should note that three members of the White Sox coaching staff -- Pedro Grifol, field coordinator Mike Tosar and third base coach Eddie Rodríguez -- all overlapped with Benintendi during his KC days, and Benintendi cited input from the coaching staff to make this approach work.
Last year, not using the leg kick helped me use my lower half better. Now that I can put them both together, it’s helping me see the ball better and stay on pitches together. I worked a lot last year with John Mabry and Terry Bradshaw in Kansas City and a little bit more into this year. It’s just a constant going back and forth.
If they know how Benintendi became an all-fields guy, perhaps they have a key for unlocking successful emphasis on the pull fields. It's not safe to count on it, but I wouldn't count it out. Combine the newness of Benintendi and the novelty of a White Sox staff overhaul, then add in the uncertainty of what Rawlings brings to the table each year. Benintendi projects as the sixth-best hitter in the White Sox lineup, but all of these elements might make him the most fascinating one to follow.
