White Sox 2023 ZiPS projections absorb, reflect 2022’s disappointments

When sizing up the ZiPS projections for the 2022 White Sox as they stood before the lockout last November, the takeaway was pretty simple: The front lines were fine, but they lacked backup in the event of unexpected failures.

Sure enough, the White Sox invited disaster by making no meaningful attempt to reinforce the roster, and disaster indeed struck.

Reese McGuire and Josh Harrison were OK, but they effectively spackled nail holes while entire sheets of drywall tumbled from the joists and studs. AJ Pollock was supposed to be ambitious, but the White Sox ended up receiving the outfield version of what they paid with (Craig Kimbrel). The two veteran relievers negated each other, and Vince Velasquez was Vince Velasquez, no more, no less. In the end, only Johnny Cueto moved the needle as a standalone transaction, but the White Sox needed Lance Lynn's knee injury to make that possible, so even that success started from a deficit.

So here come this year's ZiPS projections and the story is largely the same: The Sox better come up with some solutions to positions of need, because the fixtures aren't all that sturdy.

Except it's even more urgent, because thanks to the various fires up and down the roster in 2022, only one position/unit projects better than it did the previous winter.

(The bullpen projections came out before Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly, which is why they only amounted to 5.1 WAR last year.)

It's not all bad news, but the good news is flimsy. It'd be useful if Yasmani Grandal could rebound well enough to hit .226/.353/.397. It'd be tremendous if Andrew Vaughn could hit 28 homers and 28 doubles. It just can't be taken for granted given what Grandal showed last year, and given that Vaughn hasn't shown the ability to thrive over a six-month season.

There's also the larger idea that the White Sox struggle to meet even good-not-great projections, so ZiPS has to keep lowering the bar:

If there's any upside, Robert, Jiménez and Anderson's issues in 2022 all stemmed from obvious injuries, whereas Moncada is the only one who looked like his talent went missing. That's small solace since injuries often beget injuries, but it's not nothing.

One should just avoid taking anything but small solace, because simply reversing course won't be enough. The White Sox currently project under .500, so if these four players successfully pretended that 2022 never happened but stopped there, the difference in impact is negligible.

When superstars emerge, they typically shatter the algorithm and force it to reckon with a new reality. ZiPS is begging Robert to make 3 WAR look adorable. It wants nothing more than Anderson and Jiménez to invite critiques about the game being played outside of spreadsheets. The piñata is somehow gaining weight, and yet the White Sox keep whiffing.

Now they're in the uncomfortable position of requiring some combination of Robert, Jiménez, Moncada, Anderson and Vaughn to detonate preconceived notions about their ceiling. They also have to conduct their offseason as though they can't expect greatness, maneuvering to make their lineup longer and their depth chart deeper to mitigate slumps elsewhere.

The White Sox could've avoided the former situation by importing a superstar like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Jerry Reinsdorf wouldn't allow it. The latter is theoretically always an option, but Rick Hahn hasn't shown the foresight or creativity to see it through (see José Abreu's teammates for details). The Sox have been limited in improving the team from above, below or within, and that's how they ended up slipping back into neutral.