It won't affect any real games for a few more months, but the combination of good news for the Twins and bad news for the White Sox over the last week shifted the order of the AL Central's projectable talent on hand.
With Carlos Correa returning to Minnesota after failed physicals with the Giants and Mets, and with Liam Hendriks out indefinitely as he deals with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, FanGraphs' depth chart calculator now has the White Sox running third in the division.
Here's how they stack up now, with the leaders in bold.
| Team | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RP | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 3.3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 30.8 | 14.3 | 45.2 |
| MIN | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 28.1 | 14.1 | 42.2 |
| CHW | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 26.0 | 14.7 | 40.8 |
The Guardians are sitting pretty, which makes sense since they won the division by 11 games with baseball's youngest roster. There's upside even in their lesser projections, as Josh Bell gives them a higher floor at first base/DH, and the starting pitcher sum includes a weirdly bearish number for Cal Quantrill (1.9). They have sophomore slumps to ward off in the outfield corners, but George Valera could be waiting in the wings if Steven Kwan or Oscar Gonzalez slips.
The White Sox and Twins approach their numbers from the other direction. Even the rosier numbers can't really be celebrated, for we've seen too much.
The Sox's lead in DH production is a slightly Pyrrhic victory, because it's a product of Eloy Jiménez falling out of the outfield mix. At least it has the makings of a legit outcome, whereas the catcher projection hinges on Yasmani Grandal hitting .225/.346/.391, which everybody would take. Andrew Benintendi's impact in left field is the only one that feels understated, because Guaranteed Rate Field should boost him to some degree with no changes necessary. Everybody else has to (re-)establish their talent or their durability to truly conquer the doubters.
The Twins aren't much better, although Correa's return might've saved their winter. Christian Vázquez shores up the catcher position well enough to keep pace with their rivals, but the only other addition of note is Joey Gallo, and he does nothing for their outfield corners in this exercise.
Starting pitching has been a sore spot for a couple years, and while there are functioning starters in Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, they haven't been able to acquire or develop pitchers who can work six innings or longer. Minnesota starters threw the second-fewest innings in the American League with 782.2.
It's weird to see their rotation WAR total within reach of the others knowing these issues, but they get a boost from their extra starters. They're projected to receive 1.2 WAR from their sixth starters and beyond, compared to 0.9 for the Guardians, and 0. 6 for the Sox. Limit the discussion to the Opening Day rotation, and the White Sox's edge becomes clearer:
- White Sox: 10.5
- Guardians: 9.2
- Twins: 8.8
You can't entirely discount the value of marginally better depth, but the advantage only plays up in small doses. If Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and colleagues only have to pick up one rotation spot, then Rocco Baldelli can keep swapping out candidates until he finds one that sticks. If they're needed to cover dozens of starts because they haven't been able to keep starters healthy for 120 innings, then that pool of reserves only adds to the mediocrity.
Joe Sheehan covered the Twins in his most recent newsletter, and he sees the same problem.
The Twins’ problem is baseball’s problem. Their projected 2023 rotation made 85 starts and threw 438 innings last year. Look around the league and you find that most teams are building rotations out of pitchers who have never met the volume standards it takes to pitch in a five-man rotation, or even a five-day rotation. Again, I say, 132-game seasons and/or seven-inning games.
Until then, the Twins will hope that all these guys stay reasonably healthy and for some surprises behind them. They tried going outside the organization on the cheap last year and got, in Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, 54 starts and just 242 2/3 innings, with a 4.59 FIP. The Twins went 20-34 in the games the two started. They’ve eschewed free agency this time around, which will leave them leaning on Simeon Woods-Richardson, Josh Winder, and maybe fading prospect Jordan Balazovic. Chris Paddack could return from Tommy John surgery later in the year. If it goes sideways for the Twins, it will probably be because the rotation blows up.
This presents a major opportunity for the White Sox to distinguish themselves from at least one rival. The advantage Rick Hahn tried to create with excessive bullpen spending didn't materialize even before Hendriks shared his awful news. The advantage the White Sox hold in Cy Young-finishing starters remains, but they'll actually have to look the part. That picture doesn't require Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito to regain All-Star form, but their presences have to be detectable. If they're again absent or negligible, then that puts way too much stress on Dylan Cease improving upon last season, or Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger being able to throw 150 innings themselves.
If that feels especially fragile, that's because it is, at least in a world where Jiménez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada haven't shown an ability to take the field at the same time, especially at full capacity. There's upside to be found if you're generous in spirit, but only one team earned the benefit of that doubt last year, and that explains the gap between first and second/third.
