So far this week, we've sorted the White Sox farm system by the most cut-and-dried categories.
We've looked at the White Sox prospects who are just getting started. We looked at the prospects who have time to find their ways. We've looked at the prospects who dealt with season-altering injuries. We've looked at the prospects who used 2022 to boost their stocks considerably.
That leaves a dozen guys whose states can't be so neatly summed up. Some have hit a wall in their matriculation, while others have one looming on the horizon due to present-day concerns. They're not necessarily fatal flaws -- it could just be development they haven't gotten around to yet -- although a look at last year's list shows the difficulty in closing that last mile.
Sean Burke: Consolidation
Burke threw 108 innings in 2022 after throwing 74 for Maryland in his junior season, so that much is fine. He also struck out 137 batters over those 108 innings, and while walk rate needs to come down (10.3 percent), it represented improvement over his only full season with the Terps (13.2 percent). It's not easy to repeat a delivery from a 6-foot-6-inch frame while working on new pitches, so command figured to be a multi-year project.
No, the biggest issue is that he had his pitch count capped at 75 pitches over the second half of the season, or around the time he missed a couple weeks with what Keith Law said was a lat injury. He showed the capacity to throw dominant outings within those constraints, but he also threw his share of clunkers afterward, resulting in a 5.37 ERA over his last 15 starts of the season.
James Fegan said that the conversation about Burke centered less on results and more about the timing of his delivery, and working on the pitches that needed the most improvement (slider and changeup). The goal is for this year is putting it all together for a six-month grind, and the Sox sure could use it in fairly short order, because depending on the outcome of Mike Clevinger's uncertain future, only Davis Martin and A.J. Alexy insulate Burke from the pressures of MLB needs.
Matthew Thompson: Whiffs
Thompson also cracked 100 innings for the first time in his career, but unlike Burke, his starts were seldom spectacular. He struck out just 73 batters over 84⅓ innings at Winston-Salem while giving up 13 homers, and while the strikeout total jumped at Birmingham (31 over 25⅓ innings), it's partially because he had problems getting outs in other ways.
What's weird is that Thompson addressed the concerns about fluctuating velocity that caused him to drop into the second ground in 2019. It's just that the delivery of and action on the fastball subtract from its effectiveness. Then again, Eric Longenhagen says that while Thompson's upright delivery hurts his fastball, it helps the curveball because it comes from the same arm action, which might explain why progress has been so painstaking.
That said, he's in better shape than prep-arm draftmate Andrew Dalquist, who found an even less impressive way to throw 104 innings (by issuing 64 walks against just 80 strikeouts).
Yoelqui Céspedes: Plate discipline
I've said it before, but it's best to consider Céspedes a project like Adam Engel, even if he has a famous half-brother and signed for nearly $2 million more. Céspedes hit .258/.332/.437 with 47 extra-base hits and 33 stolen bases over 119 games with Birmingham, but it doesn't outweigh his plate-discipline concerns, as he struck out 154 times against 29 walks*.
(*Céspedes was plunked 23 times, giving him 34 HBPs over 193 games. You can't quite add it to his walk total and call it even, but it looks like a kind of skill.)
Engel's hitting issues stemmed from a different source. He had an ugly, rigid swing that required a lot of tweaks before he found something semi-effective, which is why he didn't make his MLB debut until 25. Céspedes' swing has plenty of bat speed, but while its violence can rack up extra-base hits, its frequency often makes him an easy out. If he were somehow able to make even mild gains in his selectivity in his age-25 year, he could find an Engel-like spot on a roster as a supplemental defense-first outfielder, because he can damage left-handed pitching, and it sure is fun to watch him throw.
Carlos Pérez: opportunities (preferably low-leverage)
Pérez went from hitting seven homers over 307 games in the low minors to 34 over the last two seasons for Birmingham and Charlotte, all while carrying a strikeout rate below 10 percent. He addressed his biggest shortcoming -- that pitchers could knock the bat out of his hand -- pretty convincingly.
The big question has been replaced by a bunch of smaller doubts: Is his arm strength too much of a liability? Does he receive well enough? Can he earn the trust of a pitching staff? Seby Zavala seems like he has command of the backup catcher job, and since he's out of options, there's no point in promoting Pérez over him, but Pérez is at the point of his career where he needs, like, 50 MLB games to understand what can be lived with. He might get those 50 games if Yasmani Grandal again misses a big chunk of the season, but if the White Sox are in the middle of something important, it might be a little harder to negotiate his flaws.
Jared Kelley: Cohesion
All of Kelley's trackable minor-league experience has taken place over the last two years and before he turned 21, but it feels longer because it's always felt precarious. He's had issues finding the plate. He's had shoulder problems. He's had general conditioning concerns. It's been exhausting following him.
But if you can manage to keep the particularly frustrating nature of his struggles from coloring your entire perspective of him, there were signs of hard-earned progress. He made 21 starts and threw at least four innings in half of them, indicating a healthier physical state. He found some success with a two-seam fastball, and made enough progress with a slider to make it the third part of a three-pitch mix behind his changeup, which has never been the problem.
Add it all up, and there are ingredients in place for some actual low-minors success, and he wouldn't be too old for it in 2023. If quality outings once again prove elusive, then it's probably time to think about the bullpen.
Luis Mieses: Impact
It took Luis Mieses a few years to find traction, but over the last two years,. he's been a cromulent minor-league outfielder. He hit .270/.312/.463 between the Sox's A-ball levels as a 21-year-old, and then hit .284/.326/.447 between Winston-Salem and Birmingham in 2022, including an organization-high 39 doubles and 15 homers. Better yet, the 16.6-percent strikeout rate is acceptable, bordering on admirable.
The problem is a lack of a present strength. He doesn't draw walks, and his aggressiveness can manifest itself into weaker contact. He's a lefty who hits righties OK, but you'd like a little more home-run power if he isn't going to be able to handle lefties. He can stand in either outfield corner, but he fits better in left, and not really in a plus fashion.
None of this rises to the level of damning, because he's made some important gains over the last two years, and there very well could be more to come. He also survived a turn through the Rule 5 draft, so there isn't a 40-man roster spot to worry about until next winter at the earliest. "Let's see what happens" is such a boring thing to say, sometimes it's nice to follow a player who doesn't offer scares.
Yolbert Sánchez: Power
I figured Sánchez would log some time at second base for the White Sox in 2022 due to a skill set that might make him passable in short stints. He puts the bat on the ball and makes all the plays at second with confident actions, so he'd be a little bit of BABIP luck away from making White Sox fans forget about Nick Madrigal, at least until or unless Madrigal finishes that job himself.
He opened the season by reaching base more than half the time over 13 games in Birmingham (.353/.508/.373), but when the White Sox promoted him to Charlotte, he became the one hitter who failed to make special use of Truist Field. He hit just three homers and 20 extra-base hits despite playing half his games in the International League's best park for power. Lenyn Sosa and Romy González ended up getting those reps instead. If he can't add even a little more oomph, José Rodríguez could pass him as well.
Adam Hackenberg: Power
Adam Hackenberg is a real catcher behind the plate, but he's also a real catcher at the plate, in the sense that his contact isn't convincing. After a sensational pro debut with 21 games at Kannapolis in 2021 (.346/.384/.457), his production sagged as Winston-Salem's primary catcher in 2022. He hit just .231/.328/.343, with even less success after the late-season promotion to Birmingham.
The good news is that Hackenberg's pitch recognition seems fine, at least ball from strike. He walked nearly 10 percent of the time with the Dash, and the 21.6 percent strikeout rate isn't alarming. He just doesn't quite get the barrel where it needs to be, which is how you get a .231 average and .343 slugging despite a build that suggests more power.
Hackenberg's defensive abilities will keep him around, and Seby Zavala didn't start accessing his power until his second full year in the minors, so you can file that away under "Catchers Sometimes Be Like That." But the White Sox also got Hackenberg in the 18th round, and while injuries at Clemson may have masked some of his potential, there's also a real chance that the bat just doesn't do enough.
Gregory Santos, Franklin German, Nick Avila: Breaking ball
All three relievers have rookie eligibility, all are on the 40-man roster, and Avila might have an inside track on a 26-man roster spot if the White Sox really care about Rule 5 pressures. Santos and German sit in the high-90s, while Avila is more mid-90s, but they're not lacking in power. The question is whether they have the kind of breaking ball to give them different modes of attack. Santos lacks control of his slider, while German's has been under construction. Avila's fastball-curve combination might be fine for all we know since he's a relatively recent convert to relief work, but it hasn't been tested above Double-A.
Kohl Simas: Durability
Simas got off to an incredible start with Kannapolis in 2022, posting a 2.36 ERA with 58 strikeouts to 42 baserunners (29 hits, 13 walks) over 42 innings with his first 10 starts. Then he missed a month with a forearm strain, and was far less special afterward (6.10 ERA with peripherals to match). The White Sox still liked him enough to send him to Project Birmingham, where I saw him pitch an inning. He didn't really stand out, though considering my introduction to watching games at Regions Field included a 13-walk inning, I consider that a semi-positive, for he didn't scorch any negative impressions into my memory
Between pitching for three schools and going undrafted in the five-round 2020 draft, Simas didn't build a whole lot of interest before entering the organization, but he's generated some support from evaluators now. Baseball America ranked him 13th, and FanGraphs has him 15th. The common thread in both is that they like the way he competes with a better-than-expected fastball, changeup and promising curveball, but with his limited track record, it's hard to know if wearing down after two months is part of the process, or a real design flaw.
