White Sox players began departing for their various reporting sites for the World Baseball Classic on Thursday. Luis Robert Jr. and Yoán Moncada have 14-hour journeys to Taiwan, and Lance Lynn made his final tune-up with 51 pitches over three innings this afternoon.
From here, players could remain with their country's teams for the next three weeks, as those who advance to the WBC semifinals in Miami will be occupied through March 20-21.
As spring trainings go, this one feels more vital than most for the White Sox, who are trying to rebound from one of their most disappointing seasons with a brand new coaching staff. The World Baseball Classic, even though it has "world" and "classic" in its name, feels trivial by comparison.
Grifol admitted some apprehension about the idea of Moncada and Robert heading out, although his concerns were general, not specific.
“I’m also a little nervous to be honest with you, just because they’re going out there to play and we’re not there with them,” Grifol said. “At the same time, they’re prepared to do that. God willing they come back healthy and ready to go here.”
As for Lynn, it would've been reassuring had Lynn's third inning been as uneventful as the first two. The Rockies tagged him for four runs on series of singles, making him throw 34 of his 51 pitches in his final frame of work. But his velocity remained in its usual neighborhood throughout, so assuming there are no flags raised by Lynn or Grifol after the game, then Lynn's line fits within the usual fluctuations of Cactus League performances.
If there are no specific issues with Lynn or anybody else, then I don't see any particular reason to stress about their participation. Guys like Jiménez and Jake Burger are here to tell you that significant injuries can occur under team supervision on the most mundane of plays. Moreover, I couldn't really remember any previous White Sox seasons being particularly affected by the WBC, and when I refreshed my memory against the record, only one player stands out.
But first, here's a quick list of the players the White Sox are loaning out to the world.
The White Sox's World Baseball Classic participants
Cuba: Luis Robert, Yoán Moncada
United States: Tim Anderson, Kendall Graveman, Lance Lynn
Dominican Republic: Eloy Jiménez
Venezuela: José Ruiz
Now let's look at that history.
Previous years
2006: Javier Vázquez and Alex Cintrón (Puerto Rico)
In real time, Vázquez had a down year, going 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA, but it resembled his only other season in the American League, when he posted a 4.91 ERA with a far worse FIP with the Yankees two years earlier. Three of his four worst seasons as an established starter came in the AL, so that just might've not been the league for him.
WAR wasn't a common reference point when Cintrón played -- even the writers who knew it best didn't exactly know what to do with it -- and I haven't really considered his career since he left, so it's startling to see that Cintrón accumulated -2.5 WAR over 159 games with the White Sox. George Bell, who posted a -2.7 WAR over his two years with the White Sox in 1992 and 1993, is Cintrón's only company since World War II, but Bell had to deal with the DH penalty, so I get that one. Cintrón played three infield positions, which means that his .268 average had to be empty (it was), and his defense had to be terrible (FanGraphs disagrees slightly in 2006).
Cíntron hit .317/.359/.489 for the Diamondbacks in 2004, good for 2.7 WAR. Over the other 563 games he played, he compiled -4.1 WAR.
2009: Matt Thornton (USA)
Whether by bWAR (2.8) or fWAR (2.3), Thornton had his best season of a very good career in 2009, setting a career high in innings (72⅓) while maintaining his very strong peripherals, resulting in a 2.74 ERA and a 2.46 FIP
2013: Jesse Crain (Canada), Alex Rios (Puerto Rico), Alejandro De Aza (Dominican Republic)
Crain started his 2013 season by posting a 0.74 ERA over 38 games before a shoulder strain ended his season, and ultimately his career. It probably had less to do with the WBC, and more to do with Robin Ventura using him 38 times in 78 games, including 14 appearances on consecutive days. What's crazy is that the White Sox went 22-16 in games where Crain pitched, even though he only entered five games with the White Sox trailing.
(That was the same year that Addison Reed saved six consecutive games for a team that was 47-74 when that streak started. The White Sox extended Ventura after the season. Meanwhile, the White Sox see overworked high-leverage relievers and think the idea is to add more high-leverage relievers, instead of hitters who might generate more medium- and low-leverage situations.)
Rios, who careened between "quite good" and "godawful" for most of his White Sox career, followed up his WBC appearance with his only average season for the White Sox, hitting .277/.328/.421 with 12 homers and 26 stolen bases over 109 games before the Sox traded him to Texas for Leury García. That deal is still paying dividends today.
De Aza set career highs in games played (153) and homers (17), and the rest of his numbers were decent, although his center field defense created a rift between his bWAR assessment (0.6) and his fWAR (2.3).
2017: Nate Jones and David Robertson (USA), José Quintana (Colombia), Miguel González (Mexico)
Quintana, Robertson and González all pitched well enough to be traded in July and August, although Quintana's return was the only one that amounted to anything.
Jones is the one cautionary tale, although it's not necessarily the WBC's fault. Sure, he pitched in international games during the US' gold medal run, but then only made 11 appearances in April before missing the rest of the season due to right elbow neuritis, which ultimately required nerve repositioning surgery.
Perhaps Jones would've suffered some kind of misfortune regardless because he'd previously underwent Tommy John surgery and a microdisectomy during his White Sox career, so he was no stranger to operating rooms. But shortly before Jones left spring training to participate in the WBC, he was drilled in the knee with a comebacker. This quote seems a little prescient:
"Once you mess with your foundation, your knees and legs and feet, it's a little scary for sure."
Jones pitched well in the WBC, but then he didn't make it out of the first month.
That's the lone cautionary tale, and while Jones' scarred history means you can't draw a direct line, it's still one worth heeding. If any of the seven players were dealing structural issues that might require daily due diligence from the training staff, then I'd hope the White Sox would withhold them from competition, provided the players didn't remove themselves first.
Otherwise, the small amount of research on the subject suggests that players who are healthy enough to participate in the WBC generally remain as healthy as the rest of the league during the rest of the season. Maybe the South Side seven could use more time with a brand new administration, but at least they're reporting to environments with equally high standards and ambitions.
