This P.O. Sox mailbag will be a two-parter, because of two-part reasoning:
- The mailbag had a ton of questions.
- A few of them required a little more prodding on my part because I want to make sure I'm making valid point(s).
Rather than hold the entire thing up while I take some time to make sure about some details (business of baseball stuff), there's already plenty for one post, so I'll have the remainder coming over the weekend.
As always, thanks for your support.
Although we talk about Reinsdorf selling the team, I'm having trouble not assuming the new owner will be hand picked by Jerry and therefore won't change a thing. My biggest fear is that Kenny Williams will buy a minority stake and take over as the managing partner. How much subjectivity goes into the sale of a club, vs the dollars and cents? Would Reinsdorf and his partners have autonomy to make that choice, or would MLB have heavy influence?
-- Steve G.
A prospective owner has to pass through a committee first, and then they’re voted upon by all MLB owners. Three-quarters of them need to approve the sale, so there are some inherent checks and balances.
My guess is that Reinsdorf/his family would seek to maximize the value for shareholders. Moreover, Reinsdorf doesn’t seem to have any special pull with Rob Manfred, so I don’t see a situation where Manfred would allow the White Sox to be sold in a way that might harm franchise value because Reinsdorf wanted something specific. I could be wrong, because teams change hands infrequently enough that there aren’t a whole lot of timely comps.
What's going on with Timmy? The coaching staff appears to be letting this play out similar to what happened with Robert and Moncada last season - guys who are clearly less than 100% who are allowed to keep themselves in the lineup. Is this an injury he will be able to play through or is he becoming a liability in the lineup?
-- Scott H.
As I wrote on Wednesday, it’s kinda similar, but only with regards to where he’s batting in the lineup. The White Sox need him on the field, because as poor as he’s hitting, the options are all worse.
Regarding the permanent leadoff spot, I don’t really understand it myself, especially since Anderson admits that he’s not 100 percent. I wonder if it’s Grifol being careful not to alienate a player who he’ll need on his side, especially during such a delicate stage. If the team continues to languish well below .500 and isn’t especially competitive, Grifol will probably have the leeway to run wholesale changes and auditions, but until then, he needs just about everybody engaged. The math says lineup construction isn’t worth that much, although it’s a Catch 22, since a team that is well below .500 should seek every possible advantage.
If you had to guess right now, is Lucas Giolito on this roster August 1st?
-- Matt H.
Yes, mostly because the division won’t allow the White Sox to fall out of it, and a postseason appearance/division title is probably worth more to Rick Hahn than what he can get for a half-season rental of Giolito, even if they win that division with 79 games.
What is the record that the Sox need to be at to sell in July? Last year, Josh posted a poll about the Sox potential moves at the deadline, and the least popular answer was "stay put." One could argue that the acquisition of Jake Diekman was the equivalent of "staying put." Do the Sox stay put again banking on the "Health" and "Back of the Baseball Card" strategies?
TJ M.
When do you think the white flag trades are going to happen? My concern is with injuries. If Lucas gets injured, Sox get nothing. A couple teams need catchers right now, guess who could get hurt. Am I giving up on the season too quickly?
-- Doug W.
It’s not so much record as where they are in the standings, but I’m guessing the math gets pretty difficult if the White Sox are six games back, especially with a difficult-looking schedule in August. That might seem generous with regards to their chances – Jerry Reinsdorf raised the White Flag when they were 3½ games back in 1997 – but they also don’t have much to move, unless they want to trade Dylan Cease.
When will Andrew Benintendi hit his first home run?
-- SoxOdyssey2013
Let’s say somewhere in that June 6-8 series at Yankee Stadium, due to the combination of the short porch and a Revenge Game.
As this looks increasingly like a lost season for Colson Montgomery and thus requiring another year in the minors, what is the plan for shortstop next season? Hoping Anderson rebounds?
-- Matt
Probably, unless Anderson gets traded at the deadline. The Sox have some guys who can paper over the position temporarily, whether it’s because Romy is hitting well enough, Lenyn Sosa picks it up, Elvis Andrus is around, and a Jose Rodriguez September call-up in September is not entirely out of the question if he can figure out the Southern League baseball.
The bigger question is whether Montgomery's back requires some longer-term thinking about the shortstop position.
What nuggets of gold do you expect Bob Nightengale will relay to us about the Sox between now and November?
-- Asinwreck
If it's a Nightwashing, then it's something that he'll present as a defense, but really turns out to reflect poorly on the way the White Sox are run.
I'm guessing the Sox stand pat at the deadline despite poor odds, and it's framed as Jerry Reinsdorf's unwillingness to give up on the roster, and also distrust of Hahn and Williams, who might have to be fired? Or maybe something that insinuates that Lucas Giolito isn't as valuable as he thinks he is? That kinda feels right to me.
When will Garrett Crochet enter into the rotation?
-- RayHerbert
Reflexively I would say "never," but that's partially because I figured the White Sox would be reasonably competitive for the first several years of Crochet's MLB career, and because he never proved himself to be a capable starter at even the collegiate level, it'd be counterproductive to embark on such a big project.
If the White Sox have to take a big step back, next year would theoretically be the year to try it. Tommy John surgery would be in the rear-view mirror, and if the White Sox have to rebuild most of their rotation, it probably makes more sense to stretch out Crochet than ever before.
But that's a low bar, and the conversation still comes back to whether he has the pitches/stamina for it, and I don't really see it. I think the White Sox pursued safety with that particular pick because of the circumstances of the pandemic, and while it feels like a low reward, you look at what Asa Lacy is doing (or not doing) for Kansas City, and you can understand the appeal of the low risk during those times. It is what it is.
I was struck by this line toward the end of the NY Times piece on Rays earlier this month: “It’s about putting players in position to have success and complete their competitive day feeling good about themselves and wanting to contribute more,” Neander said. “You’re trying to foster confidence. The ideal space is when everyone feels like they can do more.”
You have brought up that the White Sox do the opposite of this, by doing things like playing career infielders in the outfield, asking too much of bullpen arms like Lopez, etc. Obviously, the Sox shallow roster necessitates asking too much of most players, but do you think there are ways that Grifol could better be fostering confidence or putting players in a position to succeed? And in the short or medium term (this season through next offseason), how could the front office adjust the roster to make this more possible (barring a huge investment in free agency, since we know that ain't happening)?
-- George M.
Ultimately we come back to the topic of the White Sox's poor player development, which is then exacerbated by the White Sox's pursuit of low-ceiling free agents. But that's kind of a boring answer.
Specific to this case, I think a lot of the White Sox playing-people-out-of-position problem can be traced back to how they acquire plate discipline. They won't pay for it on the open market, and because they struggle to improve it themselves, it leads them to invest draft capital in it, which leads them to first base/DH types (Zack Collins, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn) or tweener outfielders (Steele Walker, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Call, and they traded for Blake Rutherford).
The limitations outside of their plate discipline hamper their trade value, and because the White Sox aren't great at pro scouting, they're not inspired to be transactional for anything besides what they feel are obvious returns. It all coalesces in paralysis, so they get stuck watching somebody like Sheets negate his value by being asked to do things beyond his skill set, because his natural skill set is covered three times over.
I think we've seen Pedro Grifol's strategy -- ardent defenses of players who haven't failed him with their efforts, while presenting evidence of to-do lists to show that he and the White Sox have standards. I think it's too early to tell whether he's doing anything right/wrong, or whether he was simply left holding the wet paper bag when it reached its saturation point.
Anyway, with Yasmani Grandal approaching the end of his White Sox career, I've already seen a pattern of people lumping in that signing with other free-agent flops. Considering the White Sox paid the necessary cost for somebody who added plate discipline and production from the left side while playing a position -- you may not like how he catches, but he's definitely a catcher -- I hope that his tenure is handled with a little more nuance when it's in the past.
