Paul Skenes vs. Rhett Lowder lived up to the hype.
The top two pitchers in this 2023 MLB Draft Class put on a show Thursday night in Omaha. Their styles are different. Skenes is the ideal power pitcher many MLB teams covet, with an ability to throw 100+ mph with elite spin. Lowder does have plus velocity sustaining the mid-90s mph range but relies on his command and trusty changeup to generate whiffs.
Skenes and Lowder stymied the top offenses in college baseball, with lineups featuring multiple first-rounders. Wake Forest was more conservative, with Lowder limiting him to 88 pitches, but that was enough to throw seven scoreless innings allowing three hits and two walks while punching out six.
Meanwhile, LSU pushed Skenes to another 120-pitch outing. In his previous start during the College World Series, Skenes threw 123 pitches against Tennessee and surpassed 120 in three of his last four outings. What made Thursday different for this workload level is that Skenes had at least six days of rest. On Thursday, Skenes was coming off four days of rest.
This level of effort will undoubtedly be brought up on draft day. Last year with the Air Force, Skenes threw 1,105 pitches in 15 starts spanning 85.2 innings. That's an average of 74 pitches per outing. At LSU, Skenes has thrown 1,954 pitches in 19 starts (so far), which is close to averaging 103 pitches per appearance. Some will look at this increase with slight hesitation, pondering if a significant injury is coming.
I think Skenes has proved that with his big frame (6'6", 245 lbs), there's no doubt in his ability to handle a starting pitcher's workload. While I'm not crazy about 120+ pitch outings, Skene's overall stuff has barely diminished in these games. That's what makes him the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg.
Skenes has given the Pittsburgh Pirates front office more to think about with the first overall pick. Since the preseason, I've felt that Dylan Crews was the slam-dunk choice for Pittsburgh, but now I've changed my mind. It's not like Crews hasn't played well during the College World Series. Crews is 6-for-20 with a double and home run, and he's scored five runs as LSU's leadoff hitter. It's just that Skenes has been better and is displaying that type of generational talent teams look for with the first overall pick.
Since 2007, there have been five college starting pitchers taken first overall. The last two, Casey Mize and Mark Appel, may scare some away from going down this road. Then there's the previous three with David Price (2007), Strasburg (2009), and Gerrit Cole (2011). Skenes is better than Mize during the 2018 season, and his overall talent better aligns with the Price/Strasburg/Cole tier.
Last Five College Starting Pitchers Taken First Overall
| Draft Year | Pitcher | Career Games | Career ERA | Career bWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Casey Mize | 39 | 4.29 | 2.8 |
| 2013 | Mark Appel | 6 | 1.74 | 0.3 |
| 2011 | Gerrit Cole | 283 | 3.20 | 37.0 |
| 2009 | Stephen Strasburg | 247 | 3.24 | 32.3 |
| 2007 | David Price | 400 | 3.32 | 40.3 |
To piggyback from his dominant start against Tennessee and pitch eight scoreless innings against Wake Forest, I think Skenes deserves to go first overall. Unfortunately, I don’t have a crystal ball or the expertise to understand what Ben Cherington is thinking. If I were in the Pirates draft war room, I’d stump for Skenes now.
Meanwhile, Lowder firmly solidified his spot in the Top 10 picks. We’ve assumed for some time that some combination of Crews, Skenes, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins, and Max Clark will go in the top five picks. I’m circling the Texas Rangers at Pick 4 as a team that could be a fit for Lowder.
Latest White Sox Intel:
Scouting Fayetteville Regional
This piece of MLB Draft dope comes from The Athletic’s Keith Law.
“The White Sox have been linked heavily to [Yohandy] Morales and [Brayden] Taylor in the last few weeks, with a heavy presence at TCU’s regional and a strong workout with Morales after that.”
Keith Law, The Athletic - 2023 MLB Mock Draft 2.0
We've been mentioning for a few months on FutureSox and Sox Machine about the White Sox draft scout's flirtation with Miami third baseman Yohandy Morales. I've deemed him the "Most White Sox" draft prospect in this class.
What caught my eye from Law's latest Mock Draft is the White Sox having a large contingent to watch TCU during Regionals. Even though the Horned Frogs won that Regional, they didn't host. It was Arkansas.
Also at the Regional was at Arizona, and guess who MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has mocked to the White Sox at pick 15.
15. White Sox: Chase Davis, OF, Arizona
The way things have unfolded in this projection, the White Sox will have a bunch of hitters to really consider here. That includes Miller from the prep class and college hitters like Troy and Shaw. I’ve been hearing a lot of buzz that Davis, who had a huge year at Arizona, was going to go in the middle of the first, and the White Sox do find him interesting.
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com - Latest mock: There's a new top pick
I wrote about when Brayden Taylor and Chase Davis played against each other in the Regional’s opening game. For an organization continuing to need a dependable (keyword) left-handed power hitter, both Taylor and Davis fit that need.
More on Taylor, Davis, and Morales -
2023 MLB Draft Report: NCAA Regionals Recap
Perhaps this is smoke to distract teams behind the White Sox, but it’s worthwhile also to sort the other MLB Draft prospects that played in the Fayetteville Regional. Including Arkansas OF Jace Bohrofen, who also bats left-handed and hit 15 HR with a .318/.436/.612 slash line in 2023. Bohrofen is the 86th-ranked prospect in the 2023 MLB Draft Average Rankings, which puts him in the third-round range.
For the first round, I think placing Morales, Taylor, and Davis on the White Sox first-round radar is safe.
