During what turned to be the final frame of Michael Kopech's four-inning start against the Orioles at Camden Yards on Monday night, Baltimore broadcaster Kevin Brown noticed that only Kopech looked like he was playing in a sauna.
"By the way, Kopech looks like he's been really sweating all night," Brown said, as Kopech prepared to throw his 86th pitch with two outs in the fourth. "It's not warm up here. Is it humid down there, Gregg?", referring to Gregg Olson, the former Orioles closer who was stationed near the dugout on the first-base side.
"No, it's actually perfect," Olson replied. For Baltimore in August, 79 degrees at first pitch counts as such.
While Kopech's dampness struck the other broadcast booth as notable, White Sox fans are used to it. He departed his previous start after four innings with leg cramps in 95-degree heat, and and he'd worked himself into a lather within 10 pitches on Monday despite a far more comfortable climate.
White Sox fans are also used to watching Kopech struggle to keep his head above water. He grunted his way through the second half of the 2022 season, which was thrown off course by a knee injury. He ultimately delivered 25 starts and 119 innings, but he faded to a premature finish, as the White Sox decided to make Sept. 13 Kopech's last start. Still, he broke new ground with regards to workload, and that had to have value, right?
Maybe not. Kopech's start on Monday was his 25th of the season, and he'd crept by his previous high in MLB innings the week before. All hope for growth has fallen by the wayside.
| Year | GS | IP | H | HR | BB% | K% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | 119.1 | 85 | 15 | 11.5 | 21.3 | 3.54 | 4.49 |
| 2023 | 25 | 124 | 106 | 28 | 15.0 | 22.8 | 5.08 | 6.43 |
There's no progress to be found in any regard. Even the strikeout rate bump doesn't really do much for him, because while it's slightly higher, so is his BABIP, which means that outs in other forms haven't been as available to him.
You can't even gloss over the problem by using the word "inconsistent" because he's extremely consistent. Monday was his fourth consecutive start that fell short of five innings, and his sixth consecutive start in which he walked at least four batters. He's been good for exactly a walk an inning over his last 10 starts -- 42 over 42 innings -- and he's maintained that exact same rate three games in a row.
Despite the steadiness of these struggles, Pedro Grifol said over the weekend that the White Sox aren't considering moving him to the bullpen:
“Him not being a starter is not anywhere close to what we’re thinking and anywhere close to what he should be thinking,” Grifol said. “He’s had some starts where he’s struggled with command, obviously, especially here of late. But there was a month or five weeks there where he was one of the best pitchers in the game. And even the other day, he was able to gain a little bit of confidence as the outing went on, he was up to 98 [mph]. The potential’s there.”
I suppose you can credit Grifol for adjusting his vernacular and saying "not anywhere close to what we're thinking" instead of "we haven't given it any thought." It's a subtle difference, but "not anywhere close" leaves room for it to be further from their mind.
But the White Sox's 9-0 loss to the Orioles, and Kopech's role in it, led Grifol into another one of his favorite sentences. Besides Kopech's four walks and four runs allowed, he also yielded three stolen bases, which increased the difficulty of already tough situations. Grifol specifically identified an area of criticism, which he doesn't often do ...
‘‘Korey Lee back there can throw,’’ Grifol said. ‘‘Giving up three bases like that was not acceptable."
... but then he issued an ultimatum without a consequence, which he does often.
"We have to clean that up."
I actually came across that same phrase when looking up one of Kopech's starts earlier in the year against Toronto, although it wasn't said about him.
"I see frustration when we get behind,” Grifol said. “We've got to clean that up."
If you had a dollar for every time Grifol said something had to be cleaned up or tightened up, your next two orders of helmet nachos would be paid for, even if you eliminated the things that were eventually cleaned or tightened. It's one thing to lean on that phrase in April, but it's another thing to keep going back to it in August, especially when you have to go 29-1 the rest of the way in order to match last year's record. The season has been condemned, so the time for tidying has long since closed.
Kopech just made his last start of August. He's still throwing too many pitches, he's still walking too many guys, he's still allowing those guys to run wild when they reach. If he could clean it up as a starter, why hasn't he? If Grifol or Ethan Katz could make him, why haven't they?
Perhaps that lack of consequences has something to do with it. If Grifol shifted his stance and openly pondered moving Kopech to the bullpen next year, that would reflect a healthier assessment of Kopech's current form and maybe lead Kopech to make an adjustment he's dodged. But just like with Tim Anderson batting leadoff for months while being one of baseball's worst regulars, Grifol would rather let situations resolve themselves. What if they don't? What if they can't? Grifol would rather not think about it.
With Kopech, Grifol is treating it as a matter of mentality:
Grifol has stated repeatedly that Kopech keeping his composure is the key to being able to correct midgame command problems more efficiently.
“If you ask anybody in baseball how big a part is the mental side, most people will tell you 90%,” Grifol said. “It’s his responsibility and ours to come together to get that mental side right.”
Watching Kopech, I'm more reminded me of the ratio for genius -- 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration. Kopech never lacks the latter, but oceans of sweat won't make a difference if the idea is fundamentally busted.
