The bad news is we need to replace half of the roster. The good news is we get to replace half of the roster. My goal is to create a watchable team that might accidentally sneak into the playoffs.
I don't think we can hope to lure a whole new set of starting pitchers to Chicago, but I do think we can get creative with the guys we have. I propose we employ a set of "hybrid" pitchers -- basically long relievers who sometimes start games. More details below.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Dylan Cease: $8.8M -- tender
- Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M -- tender
- Michael Kopech: $3.6M -- tender
- Touki Toussaint: $1.7M -- tender
- Trayce Thompson: $1.7M -- non-tender, then sign to minor league deal
- Garrett Crochet: $900K -- tender
- Clint Frazier: $900K -- non-tender
- Matt Foster: $740K -- tender
CLUB OPTIONS
- Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) -- decline. He hasn't had his power stroke for 1.5 years. He has missed significant time each of the last five years. His defense has slipped from average to below average. Even if he hits better next year he'd have a tough time being worth $13M. On top of all that his attitude has become a problem. Both he and the team could probably use a fresh start.
- Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years) -- decline. I really tried to talk myself into some sort of a rework/extension, but this is the exact scenario the "buyout" was designed for.
MUTUAL OPTIONS
- Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout) -- takes buyout. Re-sign for 2 yr/$24M. Yes, he has baggage, but he's already been on our terrible team for a year and actually thrived. He even surprised me by looking like he got along in the clubhouse pretty well. Signing him would be a bad PR move for any other team, but the Sox have already swallowed that pill. He and the Sox might be perfect for each other.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) -- let go
- Elvis Andrus ($3M) -- Re-sign 1yr / $4M. He may just be the best SS on the market. He still plays respectable defense and can get hot at the plate. I don't expect more than 1 WAR (if that) but I do see a leader who actually likes playing on our crappy team.
- Bryan Shaw ($720K) -- Re-sign 1yr / $3M. I'm not convinced that his resurgence in '23 was for real, but maybe he and Katz found something together. And either way, without 5 traditional starters the Sox will need Shaw's rubber arm.
- José Ureña ($720K) -- let go
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: OF Lee Jung-Hoo (4 yr / $44M). So much to like about this guy. He's a middle of the order left-hander that we desperately need. He's only 25. He's considered a solid defender and could even cover CF whenever Robert misses time. Lee has played in KBO since he was 18 and is a career .340 hitter. He's more of a doubles hitter than a true power guy, especially after moving from Korea to MLB, but the hit tool looks legit. He has a ROY, Playoff MVP, and League MVP award to his name. The talent will translate. Note that this contract would also require an $8M posting fee.
No. 2: SP Michael Lorenzen (2 yr / $24M). A reliever through his 20's, Lorenzen was great as a starter this year until he got to a career high in innings thrown. Now that he's stretched out, I think he can handle a whole season and we can get him at a good value. He'll be 32, but with less mileage on his arm than comparable starters.
No. 3: HP Jakob Junis (2 yr / $14M). Perfect for the hybrid role since he's basically lived it in San Fran the last couple years, the Sox can probably offer Junis more money and innings than he'll find anywhere else. His fastball was at a career high this year, so I feel comfortable offering 2 years.
No. 4: RP Aroldis Chapman (2 yr / $16M). I want a veteran closer on the roster so we don't keep asking too much of Gregory Santos. Chapman's walk rate is frustratingly high, but he's still very hard to barrel up and the K rate is obscene. As of this writing he's looked pretty good in the playoffs, too.
No. 5: RP Phil Maton (2 yr / $14M). He's a soft-thrower who gets soft contact and still strikes out more than a batter an inning. I like everything about his profile and think he'd be a nice contrast from the rest of our staff. Oh, and his playoff numbers are sterling.
No. 6: 2B Adam Frazier (1 yr / $7M). The Sox should have traded for Frazier in July of '21, should have signed him that winter, and should have signed him last winter. An MVP he is not, but he fills a clear hole and adds another lefty bat to the lineup. His defensive numbers were solid until this season and I'm betting he isn't suddenly atrocious.
No. 7: C Gary Sanchez (1 yr / $6M). Considering the dearth of catching options on the roster the Sox have to get somebody. Sanchez isn't a great hitter but has a little pop in his bat and actually showed solid defense this year.
No. 8: 3B/OF Brian Anderson (1 yr / $3M). The Sox need a Plan B at 3B and Lenyn Sosa is definitely not it. Anderson is a true 3 outcomes guy, but 2 of those outcomes will be welcome additions to our team. His credible defense at all corner positions should keep Gavin Sheets comfortably positioned in Charlotte, NC.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade RP Aaron Bummer to HOU for OF Corey Julks. Bummer belongs on a team with good infield defense and that is NOT the White Sox. The Astros have more OF depth than they know what to do with and our team is, uh, in the opposite position. The Astros are also in desperate need of a lefty reliever. With any luck Julks will be our 4th outfielder and pinch runner for several years to come. If the Astros wanted to give us Pedro Leon instead of Julks I probably wouldn't argue.
PITCHING STAFF
Starters -- Cease, Clevinger, Lorenzen
Hybrids -- Kopech, Junis, Toussaint, Scholtens
Relievers -- Chapman (CL), Santos, Crochet, Maton, Ramsey, Shaw
The 4th and 5th spots in my rotation would each be filled by 2 hybrid pitchers who face 9 batters a piece. Kopech might start a game, get through 2 - 3 innings, then give way to Scholtens who would do the same. The traditional bullpen would cover the rest of the game. The next day Junis would start, face 9 batters, and then give way to Toussaint who would do the same.
I use the term "hybrid" because every 5 games those same guys would be expected to pitch 1 inning of relief during a game begun by one of the traditional starters. There would be some flexibility, of course, but a typical turn through the rotation for a hybrid might look like:
- Day 1 - pitch 3 innings
- Day 2 - rest
- Day 3 - rest
- Day 4 - pitch 1 inning
- Day 5 - rest
As mentioned earlier, Junis is accustomed to the long reliever lifestyle and should be comfortable. Kopech has the talent and desire to be a starter but his body simply cannot handle the workload. His career ERA before the All-Star break is 3.35; after the break it's 5.91. Michael is probably destined for life as a normal reliever, but the hybrid role at least offers him a compromise for next year.
As for Toussaint and Scholtens, you may not have realized they were actually pretty good this past year their first time through the order. Both pitchers held opponents to an OPS of only .651 in games they started. For Touki that number jumped up to .815 the second time through and for Jesse it ballooned to 1.024. A more creative deployment might help them truly thrive.
LINEUP
- LF Benintendi (L)
- 3B Moncada (B)
- CF Robert (R)
- DH Jimenez (R)
- RF Lee (L)
- 1B Vaughn (R)
- 2B Frazier (L)
- C Sanchez (R)
- SS Andrus (R)
That lineup still isn't terribly powerful, but the strikeouts should be down, the walks and OBP should be up, and the defense could be pleasantly average.
BENCH
- C Carlos Perez
- INF Romy Gonzalez or Rule 5 pick
- 3B/OF Brian Anderson
- OF Corey Julks
Perez underwhelmed in his first significant exposure this past year, but he can probably do enough to keep the back-up catcher's seat warm until Korey Lee is ready to give it another try. Catchers Perez and Sanchez are both righties but are very different hitters, so there should still be some opportunity to play match-ups. I don't really want to keep Romy on this roster, but he could actually be an adequate platoon partner with Frazier and I want Lenyn Sosa to play every day in AAA.
SUMMARY
My opening day roster comes in a little below $180M, and if you include the posting fee for Lee Jung-Hoo I finish right around the $185M target. I don't think I would call the team dangerous, but they should at least be pesky. In a bad division, that might be just enough.
