PREAMBLE
I am creating this off-season plan from the POV of the current White Sox regime, comments made by Getz at the GM Meetings on what type of team he wants to build, and rumors and speculation on what trade and acquisitions they will make. There are too many holes to fill to say and not enough organizational depth to just say “they should just spend money”. Getz inherited a mess (an argument can be made he was a part of that) and it is going to take some creative moves to get this team back to competing sooner rather than later. 2024 will be a re-tooling year for the White Sox and trying to build a culture and identity. Some moves have already been made so I provided an updated after my initial plan.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Dylan Cease: $8.8M - TENDER
- Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M - TENDER
- Michael Kopech: $3.6M - TENDER
- Touki Toussaint: $1.7M - TENDER
- Trayce Thompson: $1.7M - DECLINE
- Garrett Crochet: $900K - TENDER
- Clint Frazier: $900K - DECLINE
- Matt Foster: $740K - DECLINE
CLUB OPTIONS
- Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) - DECLINE
- Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years) – DECLINE
MUTUAL OPTIONS
- Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout) – EXERCISED – Sox don’t really have a choice here; they need warm bodies on the mound. Despite his off the field issues, he was their best SP in the second half of the season. UPDATE – Clevinger did not pick up the option and is a free agent.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) – LET GO – since TA has been let go he has no one to slap in the clubhouse and is expendable.
- Elvis Andrus ($3M) – RETAIN – Since TA is being let go, Andrus can be a stop gap at SS until Colson Montgomery is MLB ready. Andrus also provides better defense at the position and good veteran leadership that has been lacking on this team since the Ozzie managed years. UPDATE – LET GO – Sox did not retain Andrus.
- Bryan Shaw ($720K) – LET GO
- José Ureña ($720K) – LET GO
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: 2B/RF Whit Merrifield (two years, $12,933,416) - Grifol gets one of his former Royals he desperately seeks. Merrifield will likely only be replacement level at this point with his bat but he can at least field the ball and bring some defensive flexibility. Contract is based off the market value for him estimated by Spotrac.
No. 2: SP Lucas Giolito (four years, $ 47,473,29) – an up and down year while with the Sox lead to disaster with two other ball clubs. A fan favorite that is familiar to Getz, this signing can be a small step in the right direction in mending a broken relationship between the Sox and their fans. On the mound, Giolito can eat innings and still has a repertoire with two-time holdover pitching coach Ethan Katz. Contract is based off the market value for him estimated by Spotrac.
No. 3: RF Michael A. Taylor (two years, $14,463,562) – another defensive stopgap with minimal bat impact. If he can get replacement level with the bat, that is a win (or technically not). A Royals connection as well. Contract is based off the market value for him given by Spotrac.
No. 5: SP Martin Perez (1 year, $10.5 million) – a bounce back candidate after being demoted to the bullpen by the Rangers in 2023. He won a World Series in 2023 and pitched 196 innings in 2022 so if anything he can eat up innings. If he bounces back at all, he would be an ideal trade candidate at the trade deadline. Contract is based off the market value for him given by Spotrac.
No. 6: C Victor Caratini (1 year, $3 million, club option $3 million) – Caratini is a defensive first catcher who handles a staff well. Korey Lee is likely not the answer but these two will likely split starts throughout 2024. Contract is based off the market value for him given by Spotrac.
No. 7: SP Luke Weaver (1 year, $2 million) – like Perez he is a candidate to be a trade candidate if he has a solid first half of the season. Weaver pitched over 123 innings last year, starting in 25 games and boasting a 0.4 WAR. He is just an average pitcher that allows the Sox rotation to not be completely horrendous.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade OF Eloy Jimenez ($13,888,883) and $4 million cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for SP Brandon Woodruff (~$11,800,000) and UTIL Abraham Toro ($1,000,000) – the Brewers are reportedly cutting payroll this off-season in anticipation of paying salary arbitration eligible players such as Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames. I saw on Baseball Trade Values that Woodruff’s surplus was -10.4 and Eloy’s was -7.3 (this is based on being an OF, but I think it would be higher if he was designated as a DH). This is the only way I see the Sox being able to trade Eloy, one of the core players the Sox are looking to move. A player who hasn’t played a full season of baseball in his professional career because of injuries.
Woodruff may be out for the entire 2024 year after recent shoulder surgery, but there is an outside chance that he can come back by the summer or late in the season. If he comes back sometime in 2024 and pitches well, you can extend him for a few years. If he doesn’t come back, you can sign him to a cheap one-year deal and see what you got in 2025. This is not an ideal trade for the Sox, paying a 31-year-old pitcher an estimated $11.8 million to rehab for the year (not the first time the Sox have been hoodwinked into signing players only for them to be injured and taking the first year of the contract to rehab, see Benintendi and Joe Kelly), but this is a move more for 2025. Also, this is somewhat a slap in the face to Hendriks, who’s option was declined and is in a similar situation as Woodruff, rehabbing in 2024 from TJ surgery. In Toro, you get a young utility player who showed promise in the Astros system before being traded. Ultimately, I just don’t see a team wanting Eloy Jimenez for almost $14 million for the 2024 season, even if it is for bottom of the barrel prospects because of the number on the contract.
No. 2: Trade SP Dylan Cease (44.80) and RP Aaron Bummer (1.00) to the Baltimore Orioles for OF Heston Kjerstad, INF Joey Ortiz, 2B Connor Norby, and LHP Cade Povich (Total 44.30) – With this trade, the Sox fill a number of holes and solidify their defense in the infield for years to come with the addition of Ortiz and Norby. Ortiz is MLB ready and will the starting SS on the opening day roster in 2024, with Norby having a good chance at breaking camp with the MLB team as the starting 2B. Ortiz has the flexibility to move to 3B when Montgomery is called up and when Moncada is moved at the trade deadline or after the 2024 season. This also buys time for the Sox to not be pressured to call up Montgomery too early in his development. They could also keep Ortiz at SS and move Montgomery to 3B. Kjerstad made his MLB debut with the Orioles in 2023, showing his power potential. He has some swing and miss in his game, but he is the Orioles top rated prospect in this trade. He may not make the opening day roster in 2024, but he will be called up sometime in 2024. Kjerstad has the tools to develop into the power hitting left-handed RF the Sox have sought for a long time. Povich can potentially be a mid to back rotation starter, and a lefty at that.
ROSTER 2024
Starting Pitchers:
- Lucas Giolito R
- Martin Perez L
- Luke Weaver R
- Jesse Scholtens R
- Touki Toussant R
- Davis Martin R
Bullpen:
- Santos R
- Crochet L – tempted to put him in the rotation, but with the significant injuries, he needs to be in the bullpen for a whole year to see if he can stay healthy.
- Kopech R – moving him back in the bullpen to be the two-inning guy that worked so well in 2021 (minus the playoffs) which could help resurrect his career.
- Jimmy Lambert R
- Jordan Leisure R
- Tanner Banks R
- Declan Cronin R
- Deivi Garcia R
Lineup:
- 1B: Andrew Vaughn R
- 2B: Whit Merrifield R
- 3B: Yoan Moncada S
- SS: Joey Ortiz R
- C: Victor Caratini L
- LF: Andrew Benintendi L
- CF: Luis Robert R
- RF: Michael Taylor R
- DH: Gavin Sheets L
Bench:
- Corey Lee (C) R
- Abraham Toro (UTIL) L
- Spring Training Invitee OF
SUMMARY
$115,233,285 before acquisitions
Giolito - $11,868,323
Perez - $10,500,000
Taylor - $7,231,781
Merrifield - $6,466,708
Ortiz - $770,000
Woodruff - $11,800,000
Toro - $1,000,000
Weaver - $2,000,000
$4,000,000 cash to Brewers
2024 Opening Day Roster Payroll: $138,481,205
If Getz can get this haul from the Orioles, Getz’s face will be super imposed on the WWE GIF that Hahn adorned for so long. The trade makes sense for a few reasons: (1) the Baseball trade Value website values this as a pretty even value; (2) the Orioles system is so deep that all three position players are blocked by other higher-ranking prospects or stars in the making at the MLB level; (3) the Orioles were serious about trading for Cease at the 2023 Trade Deadline; and (4) the Orioles still need a frontline starter.
Ortiz, Norby, and to a degree Kjerstad are the type of players that Getz wants, they can field the ball well and have some defensive flexibility. Like any prospect haul, not all of them are going to hit, but all these guys are either MLB ready or close to MLB ready, coming up in 2024 or the latest 2025.
The flyer on trading for Woodruff may not work out or might not be feasible, but like I said, the Sox won’t be able to find a trade partner for Eloy with his price tag. This move is the most out of the box on this OPP, but I think it makes sense.
I was worried the Sox would seriously consider trading for Salvador Perez, but with his price tag and Getz’s comments at the GM Meetings about getting better defensively, I just don’t see it happening. That is why the Merrifield signing makes sense. Merrifield will be the starting 2B or RF in 2024, but Norby and Kjerstad will push Merrifield to a part-time/bench player sometime in 2024 and a trade candidate at the trade deadline or a full-time bench player 2025.
I am expecting and I believe it has been reported that we should expect a reduced payroll for the 2024 season, thus why the payroll here is almost $43 million less than the 2023 payroll.
The additions of Merrifield, Taylor, and Caratini makes the Sox a better defensive team in 2024, again something that Getz stressed. The starting pitching is horrendous with most of the Sox depth and top prospects not available in 2024. The theory behind signing Perez and Weaver is that they are reliable to make a lot of starts and to pitch a lot of innings and can potentially be moved at the trade deadline of they are above average for the Sox.
How good a bullpen is always a toss-up year to year in MLB, no matter how you build it, so I didn’t take more than a few minutes putting it together and didn’t make any additions from outside of the organization.
In short, this team will be much better in 2025 than in 2024, with 2024 being a year to start building an identity and culture that emphasizes effort, defense, and smarts. This is also an audition year for Grifol to see if he can manage a baseball team. They won’t compete in 2024, but if they can stop kicking the ball, play with effort, and play smart, fundamental baseball, that will be a winning season in and of itself.
A sneak peek at the 2025 ballclub:
1B: Vaughn
2B: Norby
SS: Ortiz
3B: Montgomery
LF: Benintendi
CF: Robert
RF: Kjerstad
C: Quero
DH: Ramos
SP: Giolito, Burnes, Nastrini, Eder, Ky Bush
