Jordan Lazowski’s 2023-24 Offseason Plan

The White Sox say they want to compete, so let's make this team compete.

However, not "compete" in the typical sense, but "compete" in the 2022 Rangers sense.

The White Sox aren't going to fix everything overnight, but with what they have available to them, they could reasonably put together a decent enough roster that simply requires spending money. It makes all the sense to do so as well - at least at the start of 2024, it doesn't benefit the White Sox to trot out a team that isn't capable of winning at all. It prevents them from evaluating their manager and changing how free agents view their situation, and would, at best, result in a draft pick outside of the top 10 because of the draft lottery and anti-tanking rules associated with that. At the same time, the roster constructed below gives the White Sox the ability to trade off assets here and there at the deadline that don't stand to contribute to the next successful team. That, plus the money coming off the books next offseason, puts the team in the position to add another piece or two to the puzzle in 2024-25 to push them one step closer toward true contention.

The overall goal of my offseason plan is to position the team to be the 2022 Rangers: make signings that will contribute to the next winning team while still cleaning out/preparing to clean out some of the remaining fat from the last unsuccessful journey.

Here is how I assess the White Sox' needs - each player mentioned below solves one of these needs:

OFFENSE: Guys with high SLG%, BB%, and can hit RHP well. Additional speed is a plus.

PITCHING: Besides just warm bodies, guys with lower BB% that eat innings and pitch well.

DEFENSE: Literally just that. Better defense. Everywhere. At all times.

With that, let's begin.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

• Dylan Cease ($8.8M): TENDER
  • Not much of an explanation is needed for this one.
• Andrew Vaughn ($3.7M): TENDER
  • Another straightforward decision - but it's time for Vaughn to take a step forward in 2024.
• Michael Kopech ($3.6M): TENDER
  • I never gave any thought to non-tendering Kopech, though I did give a lot of thought to trading him or moving him to the bullpen. After the hiring of Brian Bannister and the positive things he had to say about Kopech, I was swayed to act otherwise - though reserve the right to go back in time 9 months from now and change my mind.
• Touki Toussaint ($1.7M): TENDER
  • At that price, Toussaint was impressive enough to deserve at least a spot-starter role.
• Trayce Thompson ($1.7M): NON-TENDER
  • I'm not sure what explanation to offer here.
• Garrett Crochet ($900K): TENDER
  • Crochet's usage will be one of the more interesting things to watch in 2024.
• Clint Frazier ($900K): NON-TENDER
  • I wanted to tender him at first, but feel I found a better solution for satisfying my desire to have players on the team that aren't allergic to walking.
• Matt Foster ($740K): NON-TENDER
  • I feel as though Foster caught lightning in a bottle in 2020 that he won't be re-capturing.

CLUB OPTIONS
I always wait until these decisions are made before I publish my plan. While it takes away some of the creative liberties, it also allows me to assess if there are other players that become available in free agency that I would be interested in signing.

This is the first year that I can remember where the White Sox did exactly what I would've done in my ideal plan - decline the options for both Anderson and Hendriks.

Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) - DECLINE

This is the more difficult one, but I think it is the correct decision for the White Sox.

Despite missing a large chunk of the season, Anderson ranked 27th among 35 SS in OAA last year. From 2021-2023, he ranked 29th among 41 SS in OAA. Simply put, Tim Anderson is not a shortstop anymore. Offensively, he has not been the same since 2021. The last two seasons have seen Anderson develop a singles-driven approach that made his at-bats fun to watch when he was beating guys going the other way, but not impactful in the grand scheme of things. From 2019-2021, you could tolerate the lack of walks and bad defense because he was slugging nearly .500 over that three-year span. In hindsight, it was the danger of Tim Anderson all along: the BABIP never mattered because so many balls were going over the fence. Well, now the BABIP has fallen back to earth, but baseballs are no longer going over the fence.

There's a lot of talk about bounce-back when it comes to Anderson. There are points towards injuries and/or "playing for a contract." The reality here is twofold:

(1) Even pre-injury in 2023, Anderson had a .731 OPS. Albeit a small sample size, there was no power.
(2) The "bounceback" idea is the same one that led the White Sox to be rather inactive last offseason, and well, we see how that worked out. When players struggle, you usually have *something* in their game you can point to when you remain steadfast in support through their struggles. With Anderson, you have an approach that hasn't been seen since 2021 as the main driver. That's a concern.

I wish nothing but the best for Anderson, and hope he proves me wrong in my assessment. He's provided some excellent moments for this team, and I wish things would've worked out differently. But,  since Anderson was not under contract, unlike players such as Moncada and Jimenez, Chris Getz had his first opportunity to prove that results do in fact matter to this new White Sox regime.

In my mind, he passed that first test.

Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid $1.5M annually over next 10 years) - DECLINE

Hendriks still gets his money, but with no option for 2025, I don't see a reason to allocate valuable 2024 dollars to someone who won't pitch this year. Someone will give him a two-year offer, however, and I remain appreciative of all Hendriks did here over three years. This was the one bullpen signing they got right during the rebuild.

MUTUAL OPTIONS
Mike Clevinger: $12M mutual option ($4 million buyout) - TAKES BUYOUT

No surprise here - Clevinger pitched himself into a bigger multi-year deal that isn't priced at the going rate for a backend starter. Credit to Katz for helping Clevinger recapture some of his best stuff.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

• Yasmani Grandal ($18.25M) - LET GO
  • If you know me, you know this is hard for me. But it's time to let go.
• Elvis Andrus ($3M) - LET GO
  • Perhaps his willingness to learn a new position will help him with his next contract.
• Bryan Shaw ($720K) - LET GO
  • A nice rubber arm that I wouldn't mind re-signing to a similar deal.
• José Ureña ($720K) - LET GO
  • I liked some of his stuff, but not more than some of the other guys we saw towards the end.

FREE AGENTS
Alright, we got the boring stuff out of the way. This is the fun part of the offseason.

For the first time, my approach was solely free agency-driven. I considered some trades here or there but ultimately decided salary dumps weren't *that* important this year, as I'll explain later. Plus, is it really worth dumping Jimenez's $13M when, in reality, that might be a pretty good deal in the long term? I wasn't convinced it was.

********************

(1) MIF Paul DeJong: 1-year, $7M

Ladies and gentlemen, your Opening Day SS for the 2024 White Sox.

I never put together many plans where the White Sox follow what I do. However, I think in this case, this deal would make a ton of sense and I could actually see the White Sox choosing this path in 2024.

Paul DeJong has fallen a far way from his best days with St. Louis, but he still possesses three qualities important to improving the White Sox:

(1) Stellar defense at SS (18 OAA at SS since 2021; 8th-best in MLB)
(2) A near-8% walk rate for his career (Would've been top 5 for White Sox hitters in 2023)
(3) An ability to hit home runs (14.5% HR/FB rate for his career; 13.5% in 2023)

This deal gives DeJong a fresh start with a clear path to playing time until Colson Montgomery is deemed ready to take the reins for the future. Plus, while it isn't viable in this particular plan, in reality, should Montgomery check all the boxes sometime in 2023, DeJong would be able to shift over to 2B, where he has graded out as average in limited chances.

It's not a flashy signing, but a clear stopgap to Montgomery who can play great defense and run into some homers isn't the world's worst idea.

(2) SP Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 years, $72M
Contract Breakdown: $15M in 2024, $19M per year from 2025-2027 with a player opt-out after 2026

This is where some of the building for the future begins. Just as the Rangers signed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager a year before they were truly ready to compete, the White Sox should be doing the same thing at a couple of key positions, the most important being starting pitching.

I don't see a world where the White Sox pony up for Aaron Nola, nor do I see a world where Jordan Montgomery leaves the team he just won a ring with. With that all factored in, I think Rodriguez makes a ton of sense for the White Sox - someone who is capable of pitching among the best in baseball but doesn't command the same price. The opt-out included is similar to the one the Tigers put into Rodriguez's contract - if things aren't going well a few years into this, Rodriguez can opt-out and earn himself one last payday and a shot at a ring.

Rodriguez brings a left-handed presence to the rotation with some stability. In three of his last four seasons, E-Rod has thrown at least 150 innings, eclipsing 200 innings in one of them. His career 8.0% walk rate is below league average and would've been the second-lowest on the White Sox behind Clevinger. While he doesn't strike out hitters at the same rate as some of the White Sox's top arms (23.0%), he has managed to serve as a quality mid-rotation starter over the past several years.

The concerns are obvious in a deal like this, with Rodriguez not being a flame thrower by any sense of the word. With him heading into his age 31 season, things could get rough toward the back half of this contract. However, rather than try to break the bank for a top-tier starter this season, finding one that can provide quality innings and stabilize the rotation for the near term while using the money coming off the books next year to grab an ace makes a ton of sense.

(3) 3B Matt Chapman: 5 years, $90M
Contract Breakdown: $16M/$19M/$19M/$18M/$18M from 2024-2027

And now we have the White Sox's 3B of the future.

Matt Chapman is certainly one of the more polarizing free agents in this class. It's not entirely clear what sort of contract he is going to earn either - there aren't a lot of comparison cases among free agents in recent seasons. But, somewhere from $17M-$20M seems reasonable, and I ended up near the lower end because of a very up-and-down 2023 season.

You likely know enough about Chapman to understand what he brings to the White Sox: stellar defense paired with a career 10.6% walk rate. In two of the past three seasons, Chapman hit at least 25 homers, which would be a welcome sight on the South Side. Last season, however, he converted a lot of those home runs into doubles, reaching a career-high with 39 - which also led all third basemen last season. Interestingly enough, if you look at Baseball Savant, it appears Chapman could have a bit more home run power still there - his 17 home runs in 2023 would have turned into 22 playing at Guaranteed Rate Field.

What happens to Yoan Moncada, you ask? He becomes one of the most expensive 2B in baseball. We've forever said that the White Sox cannot move Moncada from 3B because of how strong he is at the hot corner when all other options would be a step down. Well, for the first time, this would not be the case (based on 2021-2023 statistics):

• Matt Chapman: 22 OAA at 3B (4th in MLB)
• Yoan Moncada: 5 OAA at 3B (13th in MLB)

The other problem here is clear: Yoan Moncada was horrific at 2B in his one season there in the majors, posting -18 OAA at 2B in 2018. However, as an older and more experienced player, I'd put it on Moncada to find some improvement there, especially given that his defense did take a step back last season at third. Moncada is also a sunk cost at this point and needs to be treated as such - even if he has a great season, it looks very unlikely the White Sox will pick up their 2025 $25M option on him. If he's struggling, they should feel no need to play him, and this plan would ensure that they don't necessarily need to.

Chapman is a gamble, yes, but at just $18M a season in AAV, he is that mid-tier free agent type that can help supplement some of the talent that the team will hopefully develop under Paul Janish.

(4) C Mitch Garver: 3 years, $30M
Contract Breakdown: $8M/$11M/$11M from 2024-2026

Listen, Korey Lee, at least not right now or perhaps not ever, is not a starting catcher, and the White Sox cannot act as though he will be. At the same time, the idea that the evaluation of Lee has already been completed isn't exactly fair, so it's worthwhile to create a situation where he can be evaluated with a clear backup plan if things don't go well.

Enter Mitch Garver, who isn't exactly an everyday starting catcher anymore either. However, what he can do is hit, get on base, and hit for power. His .500 SLG last season was second among catchers with at least 300 PAs, and his 12.8% walk rate was second only to Adley Rutschman. When healthy, he's certainly mashed.

The problem is the "when healthy" part. Garver has played in under 100 games in every one of his major league seasons except 2018 and has never caught more than 86 games in a season. Yet, could that be what makes Garver and Lee such a great tandem?

Garver is not so solid behind the plate that he would ever prevent Korey Lee from getting into the game. Additionally, the White Sox are going to want to keep Garver as healthy as possible to protect him. That allows the White Sox to further evaluate Korey Lee or explore alternative options in the future by allocating playing time as such. This could also be the only season the White Sox actually need Garver to catch over the course of this deal. There is no guarantee that the team will plan to pick up Eloy Jimenez's 2025 or 2026 options, and it's not yet set in stone that Andrew Vaughn is the first baseman of the future. Positions could very well open up that give Garver a less strenuous role heading into the latter years of this contract, even though it is a shorter one anyway.

With Garver's injury history, he's going to get paid like a 1B/DH - or, at the very least, a not-so-strong defensive catcher. With the White Sox needing both improved production from the catching position and the ability to further evaluate and develop Korey Lee, someone like Garver makes a lot of sense.

(5) OF Adam Duvall: 2 years, $18M
Contract Breakdown: $9M in 2024 with a $9M club option in 2025 ($3M buyout) 

I signed Duvall last year in my plan, and I think that went well enough that I'm doing it again this year.

Duvall adds one thing to the right field position that hasn't been there in years past for the White Sox: solid offense. Duvall hits RHP well (124 wRC+ against RHP in 2023) while playing about average corner OF defense. The Red Sox tried sticking him in CF in Fenway Park this year, and that went about as well as you would expect (-3 OAA). He was +1 OAA in RF in Fenway last year, 0 OAA in RF in 2022, and +2 OAA in LF in 2021. So, overall solid in a corner without being anything special. He does have a strong arm (76th percentile per Baseball Savant), which is another point in his favor.

Overall, the goal of someone like Duvall is to give the White Sox a bridge to really develop Oscar Colas, or at the very least, a bridge to whoever can be the White Sox's long-term right fielder. He will strike out a decent amount in the process and won't really walk much, but has historically homered enough to make you forget about that.

(5) SP Frankie Montas: 1 year, $9M

We're getting deeper into rental territory as we slide further down this list. Here falls the most interesting of the bounce-back candidates among starters.

From 2019-2022, Montas had some pretty impressive stuff. Over that period, his average fastball sat at 96.4 while he struck out 25% of batters and walked just 7%, posting a 3.67 ERA/3.57 FIP in the process. From there, he had to have right shoulder surgery and missed the majority of the 2023 season, throwing just one inning in September, but hitting 95.4 mph on the gun on average. His five-pitch mix has always been pretty good at generating outs, but the health remains the biggest concern.

Shoulder injuries are pretty worrisome for pitchers, and they're not to be taken lightly, which is why Montas will have to take a prove-it deal with a little less money attached than most prove-it deal pitchers this offseason. When he's at his best, however, this is a worthwhile bargain.

(6) SP Lucas Giolito: 1 year, $12M

You didn't think I'd go a whole plan without bringing Giolito back, did you?

Still needing one spot in the rotation, I chose the player who has shown the most recent success with what will likely be the most familiar coaching situation he can find himself in as he looks toward next year. Give Katz and Bannister one last chance to work their magic with someone who, at the very least, you know is pretty good for taking the ball every fifth day consistently and will be working hard for a bounceback.

(7) RP Emilio Pagan: 2 years, $10M
Contract Breakdown: $4M/$6M for 2024-2025

It truly wouldn't be a White Sox offseason without one RP deal, but with Pagan, the White Sox would be able to shore up their late innings a bit with someone with that sort of experience. Pagan posted a 2.99 ERA across 69.1 innings last season and has thrown at least 60 innings in each of the last three seasons. It's that sort of durability that would be nice to add in the bullpen that can be paired with strong recent results.

(8) MiLB deals for the following players: INF Nick Ahmed, RHP Luke Weaver, OF Clint Frazier, and RHP Dinelson Lamet

A full offseason plan is never complete without a few players to watch in Charlotte all season. Ahmed is the long-time Diamondbacks shortstop who has never hit enough to justify a starting role despite stellar defense. Luke Weaver has always had decent enough stuff to compete but never good enough stuff to dominate, making him the perfect spot-start/mid-relief depth arm. Frazier you are aware of, and Lamet hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to reach his peak of 2019-2020 but has stellar stuff.

Again, nothing crazy here - rather, just some interesting pieces with the hope that one can figure it out.

TRADES
As previously mentioned, I decided against making any trades. For starters, I decided against the complete teardown. So, players such as Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech stayed. On the other hand, with both Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez able to come off the payroll starting in 2025, it didn't make sense to just perform salary dumps - see if they perform at all this year to justify a trade at the deadline, or in Jimenez's case, warrant him sticking around next year for $16.5M. Finally, the White Sox can have an additional year to build up some of their farm talent that can be traded when the time is right or added to the team at the big league level. The picture on the farm will look a lot clearer in another year.

However, here are some trades I considered. Some are more finalized than others, but these would generally serve as the base of the deals:

(1) White Sox acquire SS Masyn Winn, C Ivan Herrera, and RHP Tekoah Roby from the Cardinals in exchange for SP Dylan Cease

(2) White Sox acquire UTIL Tommy Edman, RHP Tink Hence, and C Ivan Herrera from the Cardinals in exchange for SP Dylan Cease

(3) White Sox acquire OF Dylan Carlson from the Cardinals in exchange for SP Michael Kopech

(4)  White Sox acquire OF Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners in exchange for SP Michael Kopech and OF Oscar Colas

(5) White Sox acquire LHP Justin Storm and OF Kemp Alderman from the Marlins in exchange for DH Eloy Jimenez

SUMMARY
Here's how I foresee the lineup and rotation shaking out for the White Sox in this plan:

Total Payroll: $189.1M

Alright, so I'm a little over budget. The curse of Leury Garcia and the $5.5M he is still getting paid strikes yet again. This could easily be solved by not signing Pagan and instead just adding a league-minimum reliever like Lane Ramsey, so I'm not too worried about going over because of the easy solution I'm opting against. Hey, it's still my plan.

The biggest flaw in this plan: the team is incredibly right-handed. The reason: there aren't really any left-handed free agents that solve the team's issue. Joey Gallo might make sense instead of Duvall in RF, but he's looked pretty bad for the past two seasons now. Kevin Kiermaier may also make sense in a similar deal, but he's a defense-first player. Joc Pederson really isn't an outfielder, which re-creates the Jimenez problem, while also acknowledging that he took a step back last season.

However, my goal is never to become beholden to handedness in a lineup, and in addition, I do have two left-handed bats on my bench if necessary. To reconcile concerns, all of the players I signed are at least above average against RHP, with Duvall and Garver serving as well-above-average mashers.

The next biggest flaw: I have no idea how that rotation will hold up. It's still missing a true ace, but instead has five pitchers in it who could act like an ace or a batting practice pitcher on any given day. The bullpen is also kinda scary - and not in a good way. But, in case it isn't clear, I think the offense is this team's biggest issue, and that's where I would allocate most of my resources.

Is this team better than the 101-loss White Sox of 2023? I think so - it would be hard for me to make it worse. There is a lot to like about this team: Giolito and Montas could both be flipped at the deadline, and the bullpen has some intriguing young arms that don't even include guys like Alex Speas, Lane Ramsey, Luis Patino, or Deivi Garcia. The lineup *should* hit a bunch of homers, and the defense *should* be drastically improved on the left side (let's just forget about the right side, deal?).

If I could do some things differently, I might find a stopgap at second base - perhaps Whit Merrifield - which would likely create an overall stronger infield defense that sees Moncada back at third and Chapman on another team. But, I'd still be left without a long-term solution at third base - even the biggest fans of Bryan Ramos would probably still need to see more, and there's no guarantee he won't move to second base in the future. I could also have opted for a stronger defensive catcher behind the plate, traded Eloy Jimenez or Andrew Vaughn, and still signed Garver as a first baseman.

There's also the looming question of the choice to go for it. This team could definitely see financial improvement with Jimenez gone and prospect improvement with Cease gone, and this could very well be the route this team chooses to go over the offseason. But, I was allowed to spend money, so spend money I did. Realistically, though, you could still put together an offseason similar to this while also offloading Cease and Jimenez - I think that's what makes this plan work really well.

If you look at some of the upcoming free agent classes, there aren't many players that are going to solve all of the White Sox's problems overnight. In other words, another Bryce Harper or Manny Machado isn't hitting the market anytime soon. Thus, it makes sense to do *something* this offseason that promotes progress toward the future without blocking or trading anyone who might be part of it. I think this plan accomplishes that.

Let me know what you think!