The 2024 Hall of Fame ballot is now in the hands of the voters, and Mark Buehrle's case has its work cut out for it as it deals with the arrival of one sure-fire enshrinee and a couple other interesting cases.
Adrián Beltré is among the first-timers, and he'll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when the results are announced on Jan. 23 because he has 3,166 hits, five Gold Gloves at third base, and universal appeal as one of the most enjoyable on-field presences. Chase Utley and Joe Mauer bring some of the fun back to Hall of Fame arguments because each has things going for and against them; Utley's argument is peak-based because he wasn't a full-timer until age 26 and came up short of 2,000 hits, while Mauer's case would look iron-clad if he caught beyond age 30, but five years as a light-hitting first baseman don't add much.
Those are three guys who could be on a majority of the ballots, while only two players ahead of Buehrle in last year's vote aren't returning, as Scott Rolen was inducted while Jeff Kent's eligibility expired. The math gets a little harder this year, even if most voters don't max out their ballots at 10.
The good news for Buehrle is that none of the new names* challenge his mantle as the best or second-best pitcher on the ballot, so his case still has room to breathe. That changes next year when CC Sabathia shows up, which is why this would be a good year for him to show up on more than 10.4 percent of ballots.
(*The other names: José Bautista, Bartolo Colón, Adrían González, Matt Holliday, Victor Martinez, Brandon Phillips, James Shields and David Wright.)
The top of the ballot looks crowded when reviewing last year's vote totals, because two players are likely to join Beltre in Cooperstown based on their proximity to 75 percent.
| Player | Ballot | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Helton | 6th | 52.0 | 72.2 |
| Billy Wagner | 9th | 51.0 | 68.1 |
| Andruw Jones | 7th | 41.4 | 58.1 |
| Gary Sheffield | 10th | 40.6 | 55.0 |
| Carlos Beltrán | 2nd | -- | 46.5 |
| Alex Rodríguez | 3rd | 34.3 | 35.7 |
| Manny Ramírez | 8th | 28.9 | 33.2 |
| Omar Vizquel | 7th | 23.9 | 19.5 |
| Andy Pettitte | 6th | 10.7 | 17.0 |
| Bobby Abreu | 5th | 8.6 | 15.4 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 3rd | 9.4 | 12.9 |
| Mark Buehrle | 4th | 5.8 | 10.8 |
| Francisco Rodríguez | 2nd | -- | 10.8 |
| Torii Hunter | 4th | 5.3 | 6.9 |
Helton is coming off a huge jump that put him on the doorstep, and his induction might be the only good news Rockies fans get all year. Wagner's level of support continues to irritate me (the guy threw fewer than 1,000 innings and was awful in the postseason), but he's likely to get in despite my personal objections.
Beyond that, I'm curious how Mauer's lack of noteworthy production after 30 is judged against Jones', because both did fantastic work at premium positions beforehand. Beltrán's middling first-ballot support was punishment for his role in the Houston cheating scandal, but is that temporary or permanent? I'm less looking forward to seeing whether Rodríguez, Ramírez and Vizquel go anywhere, because they're subject to the worst Hall of Fame discussions have to offer for varying reasons.
In the meantime, Buehrle gets at least one more year for everybody outside of Chicago to consider his outstanding body of work. There are no delusions that Buehrle will reach 75 percent through the BBWAA, but the more support he gets from the writers, the better his chance of consideration from a Veterans Committee down the line. In the interim, baseball fans who don't think enough about Buehrle -- pretty much everybody besides White Sox fans -- are presented with his unique collection of accomplishments for another winter, which is why remaining on the ballot is a worthy goal in and of itself.
