Jacob Gonzalez defines depth of White Sox prospects lists

With Baseball America joining Baseball Prospectus by publishing its top White Sox prospects list for 2024 today, there isn't consensus on the order, but there's agreement on the clumping. Both have the same prospects in the top six, but it's more accurate to call it a "top one" and "the next five."

Here's how the two lists stack up:

And when I look at them side by side, Jacob Gonzalez appears to be the inflection point of this system at this point in time.

If Gonzalez turns out to be what the White Sox thought they were drafting at No. 15 overall -- a shortstop-capable middle infielder with above-average plate discipline and power he can access on a more regular basis -- then the top six is legitimately intriguing, because you can make arguments for placing any of the non-Montgomery prospects second.

But after the draft, Gonzalez hit just .211/.333/.260 with just four extra-base hits over his first 153 plate appearances with the ACL White Sox and Kannapolis. When I asked Keith Law about Gonzalez's initial showing back in September, he said multiple scouts he'd talked to didn't really see any impact skills or tools.

It's too soon to issue a verdict, because sometimes these unimpressive starts are due to fatigue from their longest seasons to date, or they're the kind of struggles that illuminate the inevitable recommended tweaks. We just happened to hit "pause" on a very unflattering facial expression, and are left to stare at it until April. If the forecast ahead is more of the same -- and if Gonzalez's selection was at all a contributing factor to Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn being fired -- then the back half of the top 10 is in disarray save Cristian Mena, who's been chugging along as the best Cristian Mena he can be.

This might only be a temporary crisis, because a Dylan Cease trade could dilute the importance of Gonzalez's fate. Bruce Levine relayed what the Sox requested from the Cincinnati Reds:

And while the Sox are reportedly "pulling back" on Cease talks as Yoshinobu Yamamoto begins his free agency tour, the Reds did sign Jeimer Candelario for three years and $45 million, which would theoretically make one of their many, many infielders more expendable. In a scenario where the White Sox are somehow able to acquire Noelvi Marte or Edwin Arroyo, then Gonzalez becomes much less critical.

If Gonzalez had the kind of professional start Matt Shaw had, then you could maybe talk yourself into retaining Cease and shaping a team for 2025. As long as he's this big of a question mark, the Sox will be inspired to give him plenty of company.

Other observations from reading Bill Mitchell's individual write-ups on Baseball America's list:

Colson Montgomery: Mitchell doesn't draw a conclusion on Montgomery's ability to stick at shortstop, but his worst-case scenario is worth noting: "Some see a player who might have to move to the outfield because of shaky hands and stiff actions on the infield." Then again, the Sox are so starved for outfielders that this almost threatens fans with a good time.

Edgar Quero: While he still has his work cut out for him in being a sturdy MLB catcher defensively, Mitchell notes that he made detectable progress in all areas -- receiving, framing, blocking and communication with pitchers.

Adam Hackenberg: While he doesn't yet have a number attached to his prospect status, he was named the system's best defensive catcher, which is the kind of thing that could make him a factor in the competition up top if he holds his offensive gains.

Brooks Baldwin: He was named the system's best defensive infielder, which is surprising since he's played more shortstop with the Sox than he did in college. If he's actually a plus defender there, then I'm even more curious about how he fares in Birmingham, whenever he gets there.