Potential Dylan Cease suitors land other starting pitchers

The number of landing spots for Dylan Cease has theoretically shrunk over the last 24 hours.

The Red Sox had been loosely tied to Cease earlier this winter, although it seemed more like idle speculation or vague feelers than any real specific heat. They're not getting any warmer after signing Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract.

There had been more smoke with the Cincinnati Reds, although it seemed to fizzle out when Cincinnati beat reporters were able to relay the White Sox's specific demand for Cease (Edwin Arroyo, Rhett Lowder, Connor Phillips and at least one more prospect). They turned their attention to another pitcher for the time being, signing Frankie Montas to a one-year deal worth $16 million.

The Atlanta Braves have been a popular proposed destination for Cease due to need and geography, although their farm system doesn't have much else to offer outside of pitchers. Interest from either side has been said to be overstated, and indeed, the Braves traded for a different pitcher by swinging a surprising trade for Chris Sale today. They sent Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox in exchange for Sale and $17 million, leaving $10.5 million for Atlanta to cover.

Throw in the Dodgers trading for (and then extending) Tyler Glasnow and signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that's at least four potential suitors who have found starting pitching solutions elsewhere this winter.

Of course, Cease has unique value because he's under team control for two years, and it won't cost that team more than $25 million for his services. Moreover, the injury histories of Montas and Sale might mean that those teams aren't done seeking arms, so Cease can be acquired alongside other pitchers, instead of being the pitcher, but it certainly relieves some of the pressure to acquire somebody of Cease's caliber. Jeff Passan said Grissom had been discussed in trade talks for Cease, so maybe you can cross off Atlanta for good. On the other hand, Sale's departure creates another opening in the Boston rotation.

Besides them, who's left? The Orioles are the most obvious partner, although they haven't been willing to part with any notable prospect for any notable player thus far. The Yankees came away empty-handed from their pursuit of Yamamoto, and Cease would certainly fit their requirement of nobody being paid more than Gerrit Cole. Maybe an off-the-radar team like the Diamondbacks or Cardinals could fit the bill, but with Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still unsigned, a couple of more promising options remain available on the open market to temper demand.

After Chris Sale recorded the final out of the 2018 World Series, I more or less resigned myself to him wearing a Red Sox cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.

Cooperstown wasn't a ridiculous notion, not after seven consecutive All-Star appearances, seven consecutive top-six finishes in American League Cy Young voting, and the highest K/9 rate in baseball history. He'd amassed 42.5 bWAR through his 20s, giving him plenty of room to decline while still clearing starting pitching thresholds, especially since the standards should change by the time Sale's eligibility came around.

But Sale didn't create such a head start that he could stop producing entirely, and that's been the story over the last five years. Injuries have limited him to fewer than 300 innings since the start of the 2019 season, so he went from being ahead of the curve to behind it as he enters his age-35 season. He's basically Johan Santana without the personal hardware, and Santana was one-and-done on the ballot.

A third act can't be counted out, because none of Sale's injuries have been as devastating as Santana's shoulder issue, and he can retire hitters even without peak velocity due to his ability to sequence forward and backward. You can only close the door on his Boston career right now, and here's how that chapter stacks up against what he accomplished with the White Sox:

He accomplished more in Chicago, but he won a ring in Boston, which basically evens it out in the legacy department. Sale is at least three good seasons away from this being a debate worth revisiting.