Baseball Prospectus doesn't release the full version of PECOTA until February, but it provided a taste of 2024 White Sox projections with the earliest-ever initial batch posted on Monday.
Some of the lines below will change substantially once every active player has settled on his home for next season, because then the system can account for the impact of depth charts and park effects. For this set of projections, PECOTA made extremely rough cuts on playing time, so the counting stats aren't nearly as significant as rate stats.
With that in mind, I've selected the lines from the newest White Sox with the goal of stacking them up against the player he's replacing, and the players he's competing against for playing time. Since these mid-winter projections are unprecedented in nature, I'm also interested in understanding how they might shift in two months. If nothing else, here's a snapshot of where things stand for posterity's sake in PECOTA posts down the road.
Shortstop
| Player | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | BA/OBP/SLG | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul DeJong | 311 | 12 | 1 | 10 | .206/.275/.362 | 0.2 |
| Tim Anderson | 477 | 20 | 1 | 9 | .257/.302/.369 | 0.9 |
| Colson Montgomery | 97 | 4 | 1 | 2 | .227/.319/.342 | 0.2 |
DeJong's projection adds 10 points to each individual slash component from his body of work the last three years (.192/.265/.353), so maybe that's the Guaranteed Rate Field Difference. He's been worth 1.4 WAR over that time, so divide that by three while extrapolating his 2024 playing time to a fullish season, and that's pretty much the same guy.
It pales in comparison to Anderson's projection, but he flummoxed the algorithms at his best due to his unique style of production, and now that he's thrown an out-of-nowhere disaster season, it's even more confused.
- 2023 PECOTA: .275/.314/.399, 2.7 WARP
- 2023 Actual: .245/.286/.296, 0.1 WARP
- 2024 PECOTA: .257/.302/.369, 0.9 WARP
I have a feeling that Anderson could sign somewhere to play second base for $5 million.
Montgomery's there just for fun. For now.
PERTINENT: At least Paul DeJong's price is right
Second base
| Player | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | BA/OBP/SLG | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Lopez | 270 | 10 | 2 | 2 | .247/.324/.331 | 0.3 |
| Elvis Andrus | 498 | 23 | 1 | 9 | .243/.298/.356 | 0.8 |
| Lenyn Sosa | 121 | 5 | 0 | 3 | .238/.277/.380 | 0.0 |
| Braden Shewmake | 152 | 7 | 1 | 3 | .213/.264/.332 | -0.2 |
The positive way to spin Lopez's line is that he'd tie his career-high home run total in half a season. Otherwise, there isn't much to report, except that his WAR could change based on whether he's projected more for shortstop or second base when the smoke clears. Andrus' line is a slight decline from his output last year, although his output last year wasn't as big a problem as how it was distributed over the course of six months.
Sosa's line hints at some upside, considering he's a .186/.209/.327 hitter over 209 MLB plate appearances in real life. But then you see Shewmake's line based on 0-for-4 in the big leagues and a .243/.305/.404 line in Triple-A, and Sosa's upswing might just be a reflection of a better International League performance.
PERTINENT: Nicky Lopez shows limits of White Sox optimism
Catcher
| Player | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | BA/OBP/SLG | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Stassi | 270 | 12 | 1 | 8 | .210/.294/.351 | 1.4 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 251 | 9 | 0 | 7 | .228/.321/.363 | 1.0 |
| Korey Lee | 209 | 8 | 1 | 4 | .212/.261/.329 | -1.2 |
| Carlos Pérez | 60 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .215/.264/.335 | -0.3 |
| Adam Hackenberg | 251 | 10 | 1 | 4 | .223/.288/.321 | 0.1 |
Stassi's line is one of the pleasant surprises I'd mentioned earlier. Everybody would take that kind of season in a heartbeat, because the 1.4 WARP in a half season suggests excellent defense to go along decent-for-a-catcher hitting. That line effectively reflects his last two seasons. He hit .208/.294/.359 across 2021 and 2022 before missing all of last season due to an injury and a family health situation.
That'll work for the league minimum, and it's certainly a step above Lee and Pérez, who are indistinguishable. Right now it considers Hackenberg the best option to back up Stassi, but his track record of minor-league success is very short.
PERTINENT: Max Stassi gives White Sox a veteran catcher without expectations
Starting pitching
| Player | G | IP | H | HR | BB | K | ERA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 26 | 150.1 | 138 | 21 | 52 | 142 | 3.29 | 2.0 |
| Mike Soroka | 19 | 87.1 | 86 | 11 | 31 | 75 | 3.68 | 0.8 |
| Jared Shuster | 16 | 77.1 | 88 | 13 | 34 | 58 | 5.97 | -0.4 |
| Michael Kopech | 29 | 107.2 | 97 | 18 | 61 | 116 | 4.40 | 0.2 |
| Touki Toussaint | 23 | 104 | 92 | 13 | 63 | 111 | 4.21 | 0.5 |
Fedde's projection is the other pleasant surprise, because he somehow pulled that off, the 29 other teams in baseball would've been kicking themselves for not beating the White Sox's two-year, $15 million contract by 100 percent. He's never come close to doing that in the majors, so that's all on the strength of his KBO performance. Unless it's just a weird wrinkle that will be ironed out during PECOTA's next pass.
Everybody would also take that projection for Soroka because it's beat anything he's done the last four seasons. It's worse than his career line, but his All-Star season in 2019 accounts for about 70 percent of his entire career, so you'd have to expect some markdown. PECOTA is also pretending that Kopech's walk-per-inning rate from the second half was an aberration, and not the kind of rut he's always going to struggle avoiding.
Toussaint's is the only one that feels right, at least if he can carry his last-time-we-saw-him form into 2024. Actually, Shuster's probably nails it too.
PERTINENT: Erick Fedde gives White Sox sorely needed upside from outside
