Entering the hot stove season, I'd considered Dylan Cease a cost-conscious alternative to Blake Snell. Cease could boast the same pitching characteristics as Snell and a lot of the same heights, except he's younger, more durable, and cheaper over the next two years. He'd command a weighty cost in prospects, of course, but some teams had prospects to spare, especially if it helped land a postseason-caliber pitcher on a seven-figure salary.
That was a reasonable stance from a reasonable man, but given that it's mid-January and both pitchers are still available, perhaps I hadn't given enough consideration to another possibility: What if teams that aren't enamored by Snell aren't enamored with Cease because he's a little too Snell-like for their comfort?
This thought first took root in my head when reading Bob Nightengale's prediction from his Sunday notebook saying Snell's negotiations would carry into spring training.
3. Blake Snell will wait into spring training
Blake Snell will still be a free agent when spring training hits with teams continuing to balk at his asking price in excess of $200 million. The Los Angeles Angels are the strongest suitor at this juncture.
Snell was the most dominant pitcher in the National League last season, yielding a stunning 1.20 ERA the last 22 starts of the season, so you would think that just about everyone in baseball would want him? Uh-uh. Teams are wary of him because of the fact he pitched past six innings only three times last year, and has never pitched eight innings in any of his 191 career starts. Large-market teams openly question whether he could handle the pressure and scrutiny of pitching in their city. There’s a reason why the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees and Mets have shied away, at least for now. Snell, 31, could fall right into the Angels’ laps.
As we discussed on Monday, Nightengale then continued to predict that Cease would also remain with the White Sox to start spring training, and maybe into July.
Supporting Nightengale's positions, teams in need of starting pitching continue to find alternatives to Snell and Cease. The Yankees reportedly made an offer to Snell, but they just signed Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37 million contract, which is nearly identical to the contract Lucas Giolito signed with the Red Sox (two years, $38.5 million), as well as the extension Chris Sale inked with the Braves (two years, $38 million).
Beyond the fact that Snell and Cease are the top pitchers available on the free agent and trade markets, respectively, Snell is coming off a Cy Young season with the Padres that looks an awful lot like Cease's Cy Young runner-up performance in 2022. Both pitchers even led the league in walks.
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | G | IP | H | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snell | 14-9 | 2.25 | 32 | 180 | 115 | 15 | 99 | 234 |
| Cease | 14-8 | 2.20 | 32 | 184 | 126 | 16 | 78 | 227 |
It's tough to post one of the league's best ERAs while giving up so many free bases, and Cease wasn't able to walk that tightrope as successfully the following season. He posted a 4.58 ERA and threw fewer innings (177) despite making one more start.
The simplest estimation is that Cease's true talent level is somewhere in between his 2022 and 2023, and it'd be a trite thing to say if his cumulative FIP over that time span didn't nail it.
- 2022: 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP
- 2023: 4.58 ERA,. 3.72 FIP
- 2022-23: 3.37 ERA, 3.40 FIP
For all the walks he allows, Snell's shown a higher floor and higher ceiling when it comes to run prevention. His biggest problem is he's hit 180 innings twice, but he hasn't thrown even 130 innings in his other four full seasons. If he's out for a start, he's out for a month.
That's why I can see it being a wash -- Cease is three years younger with an enviable track record of durability, while Snell has more consistently mitigated his biggest flaw. But as long as the market is taking its time warming up to either pitcher, I'm starting to wonder if their inefficient methods are something of an acquired taste. You can source the finest absinthe from France, but if you can't stand the taste of black licorice, you may as well be drinking Malört.
Nightengale previously complained this winter that reporters were too reckless relaying rumors from agents, so these pessimistic reads on Snell and Cease could be the zero-sum result of leaning on teams for information. But if neither drums up demand commensurate with their achievements -- and Jesse Rogers joined Nightengale in saying Cease could remain in Chicago for longer than anybody anticipated at the start of the winter ...
According to rivals who have negotiated with Chicago, Getz has been deliberate and straightforward in his new role so there's no reason to expect he will rush what would immediately become his signature move as White Sox general manager. The idea of waiting until July -- or later -- to move Cease hasn't been spoken directly to teams, but there's more of a sense that could happen now than there was in November. Getz's no-nonsense style of negotiating has also led to a clear picture of what kind of package it will take to get a deal done, according to teams that have engaged in talks with the White Sox this offseason: Multiple high-end prospects (one won't be enough) and some "fill-ins."
... then perhaps teams really would want to see a return of the more dominant form of Cease before buying in.
Or it could just be posturing. When it comes to the likelihood of Cease being dealt, Ken Rosenthal maintains his line that the White Sox are waiting for the supply to officially thin out, after which demand for Cease should take hold. When it comes to trades of this nature, sometimes the asking price is exorbitant until it suddenly isn't.
Still, it's worth remembering that Cease came to the White Sox after Rick Hahn successfully held out on dealing José Quintana until he got what he wanted. The Sox carried Quintana into the regular season back in 2017 because Hahn's first failed rebuild resulted in him flooding the market with great players on incredible contracts. He extracted two significant prospect hauls for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, but the third would have to wait, and he played that waiting game as well as he could by getting Cease and Eloy Jiménez from the Cubs.
There aren't many other trade candidates requiring comparable hauls, so it still seems improbable that Cease would remain with the White Sox into the season. Hell, his payroll hit will be even lower than initially projected, because Cease agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal to avoid an arbitration hearing, when MLB Trade Rumors had estimated him closer to $9 million. Even if he regains the form that garnered strong Cy Young consideration, he probably won't make more than $25 million over the next two years, which makes him a bargain even relative to the Stroman, Sale and Giolito deals.
Those have been Cease's selling points for months, though, and the longer you stare at it, the more you wonder what you're looking at. The same can be said for Snell, and while I'm not convinced how much there is to what I just wrote, it's something I might believe more the longer their status stays the same.
