Tennessee is the first place I've lived where basements aren't really a thing. The ones that exist are usually walk-out types built into the side of a slope. For homes built on a flat-enough plot, the cost of excavating limestone isn't worth it, which is a lesson I learned when digging a 20-inch hole to replace a mailbox.
If you're lucky, you'll get a crawlspace that's large, navigable and ventilated, which keeps the garage from turning into a shed. But as long as it can be called a crawlspace, it'll never be a place where you want to spend any time.
Looking at the ZiPS projections for the 2024 White Sox, Chris Getz appears to have built a crawlspace. There's very little room between the floor and the ceiling, and you can't even really call it a ceiling, because it's just the underside of what everybody else would consider the floor.
The only players who can be expected to provide star-caliber production are Luis Robert Jr. and Dylan Cease, and Getz has designs on dealing the latter. Any hopes on overachieving rest on the players whom the White Sox relied on overachieving in previous seasons, and when you look at the sliding standards from 2023 ...
... to 2024 ...
... ZiPS has largely given up on them. The more Michael Kopech, Eloy Jiménez, Yoán Moncada and Andrew Vaughn have shown, the less and less algorithms like their chances of putting it all together and standing out at their respective positions.
It's easiest to see how everything caved in when stacking up these projections as a progression, starting with the 2023 forecast, followed by the actual 2023 production and the following year's projections.
| Position | 2023 | Actual | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | 2.3 | -0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1B | 1.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| 2B | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 3B | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| SS | 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| LF | 1.3 | -0.3 | 1.3 |
| CF | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| RF | 0.5 | -3.8 | 0.3 |
| DH | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| SP | 13 | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| BP | 6.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
It's not perfect, because the 2023 projections were released before the White Sox signed Andrew Benintendi, which changed the playing time mixes at left field and DH. Except then Benintendi went out and face-planted in the first year of his five-year, $75 million contract, so now his presence makes no discernable difference.
The biggest issue with the White Sox is that they only have five bats that project to produce an average OPS+:
- Luis Robert Jr., 121
- Eloy Jiménez, 119
- Andrew Vaughn, 113
- Andrew Benintendi, 106
- Yoán Moncada, 102
And Robert is the only one who complements it with real defensive value. Moncada is fine at third base, but not gold-glove caliber. The other three will find it a challenge to rise to adequate at non-premium positions. These guys represent the best chance of actual upside, and so you can see the problem for 2024.
Everywhere else reflects Getz's strategy for getting the year over with as quickly as possible. Paul DeJong and Nicky Lopez represent mild improvement on their defense alone, but that's only because Tim Anderson fell apart to such an extent that his top comp for 2024 is Literally Leury García. Max Stassi looks like he's worth trying (1.1 WAR), but his projected value is nullified by Martín Maldonado (-1.0 WAR).
On the pitching side, ZiPS has nothing for White Sox fans after Dylan Cease, because Erick Fedde (4.86 ERA), Michael Soroka (4.76) and Michael Kopech (4.82) all end up in the same neighborhood for one known reason or another.
There are reasons for optimism a little down the road. Colson Montgomery, Bryan Ramos and Edgar Quero all project poorly if they were counted upon to play right now, but they're building cases to be plus contributors with a little more seasoning. The same can be said on the pitching side, as Cristian Mena, Nick Nastrini and Davis Martin's projections are interspersed with the White Sox's attempt at major-league solutions for Opening Day. There's just no point in throwing them in the deep end right now.
For the time being, they're insulated from the stresses of MLB expectations by the additions of DeJong, Lopez and Stassi on the position-player side, and Fedde, Soroka and Chris Flexen on the pitching staff. If you expect the veterans to improve the team's above-ground living situation in any measurable way, you're probably going to be disappointed. If you treat them like a vapor barrier, the polyethyline liner that prevents moisture from rising through the ground and generating mold and rot for the foundation and everything around it, you might stand a better chance of coming away from this season satisfied.
You can't make crawlspace encapsulation sexy no matter how hard some companies try -- seepage.com redirects to U.S. Waterproofing's site -- but it can be a worthwhile investment. That just requires everything in and above it to be worth preserving, and that can't yet be taken as a given.
