2024 MLB Draft Report: Chase Burns shuts down Duke

Georgia slugger Charlie Condon was originally No. 1 on my Watch Board for the White Sox, but he’s hitting so well that I foresee updated mock drafts having him go first overall to Cleveland. If you enjoy playing MLB The Show and have the game difficulty set to Rookie, you might put up similar numbers as Condon. 

In 18 games, Condon is hitting .569/.670/1.292, leading the nation in all three categories. Add in the 13 home runs and a 299 wRC+, and Condon has a chance to put up one of the great offensive seasons we’ve seen in college baseball. This weekend starts SEC conference play, so let’s put a pin in Condon’s season performance for now and check back in another month to see how his numbers differ. 

The other two players who I’ve been impressed with after the first month of college baseball are, surprisingly, pitchers. For a draft class that was considered on the weaker side for arms, we're seeing that the pitchers are performing better than the “safe” college bats. With this report coming after the White Sox traded Dylan Cease to San Diego, I’m sure fans would be more interested in which bats will be available at Pick 5. 

But it’s hard to ignore how well Wake Forest righty Chase Burns and Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith have been throwing. Especially when the No. 1 prospect, JJ Wetherholt, is still nursing a hamstring injury, and Nick Kurtz is hitting .245 but almost has a 30 percent walk rate. 

Chase Burns Dominates Duke

I circled the Duke series to watch how Chase Burns performed against a better lineup. The last time I watched a Burns start was against Illinois, and he stuck with his fastball/slider combination because opposing hitters didn't stand a chance. That strategy wouldn't work against a Blue Devils offense that ranks fourth nationally in team home runs, and beat up Friday night starter Josh Hartle. 

It was an uneven first inning for Burns, and at times, I had flashbacks of watching Cease. Perhaps it was being a bit too pumped up for the start, but Burns was inconsistent with his fastball command. Just like Cease, Burns often over-rotated, and his four-seamer would miss wide against right-handers. Eventually, Burns found his rhythm and struck out the side, but he needed 21 pitches to escape the first frame. 

While some will watch the first inning and pause about their expectations of Burns, the second inning causes a "whoa" reaction. Burnes was filthy, striking out the side in just 10 pitches. In the third inning, Burnes once again got out of rhythm, allowing a solo home run and another deep flyout. Then the triple-digit heat arrived, and Duke's bats felt helpless against Burns. 

When the Blue Devils hitters were gearing up for heat, Burns flipped curveballs and changeups at them. At times, it felt so unfair that Duke hitters would step outside of the box, seeking guidance from the coach at third base. It's the sort of reaction opposing teams would have facing Cease when he was on his game, and that's fun to watch. 

In the sixth inning, Burns reached 101 mph with his four-seam and finished with a career-high 14 strikeouts on 99 pitches. His final line: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 K. I honestly feel Burns is ready to pitch for the Winston-Salem Dash with his current arsenal. It's a 70-grade fastball with a 60-grade slider. Sure, the curveball and changeup are still a work in progress, but his ability to maintain velocity deep into the start and reach back and throw harder is impressive. It's much like prime Carlos Rodon in 2021 when, in some ways, he acted as his own reliever, finding a couple of ticks on his fastball. 

The White Sox need more bats in their farm system, there's no question about that. However, if this MLB draft pans out as many think, and the teams ahead of the White Sox take whatever college bat is available, Burns could be too enticing to pass up. He's got the ability to be a future MLB ace. 

Notable Performances

• I haven’t done a breakdown on Iowa righty Brody Brecht, but I did capture a video of his start against Ole Miss on March 1. While Chase Burns reminds me of Dylan Cease, Brecht reminds me of Michael Kopech. In some innings, Brecht is utterly dominant. Then, one mistake or misplay gets the dominoes falling. Pitch counts rapidly increase as Brecht gets deep into his starts.For example, against Jacksonville State, Brecht only allowed one hit, walked three, and struck out nine. However, it was only a four-inning start that required 72 pitches. Against Ole Miss, Brecht only lasted five innings, and needed 76 pitches over the last three.It’s a great arm, but I think reliever risk is very high for Brecht.

• I’m not forgetting about Travis Bazzana. He has four straight two-hit games entering conference play this weekend and is hitting .450/.588/.900 with six homers and 18 RBIs. Add in three doubles and triples for the season, and Bazzana continues to fill up the box score. 

Games I’m Watching This Weekend

#25 Georgia at Kentucky
Friday, March 15 - 5:30 PM CT, SEC+

Alright, Charlie Condon. Let’s see if he can continue his slugging ways against SEC pitching. 

#4 Texas A&M at #15 Florida

Friday, March 15 - 5:30 PM CT, SEC+

Two college bats to watch when the Aggies visit the Gators: Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery and Florida’s two-way player Jac Caglianone. 

#11 North Carolina at Miami 

Friday, March 15 - 6:00 PM CT, ACC Extra

I’m intrigued with North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt as some of his advanced metrics are taking a step forward from last year. The Tar Heels have won 11 straight games and looking to keep that momentum forward visiting Miami.