2024 MLB Draft Report: Re-ranking prospects by tiers

The college baseball season is five weeks in, and conference play is now in full swing. I’ve noticed that other outlets have begun updating 2024 MLB mock drafts and their top prospect lists. I don’t think going through these exercises is a bad idea. In a way, it helps educate baseball fans on which college or prep prospects are climbing up draft boards, but there is still a lot of guessing right now. 

Covering this draft from a Chicago White Sox perspective, I’m trying to find the five best prospects that Mike Shirley and Chris Getz should agree on selecting in the first round. After that pick, the White Sox are at the mercy of how the other dominoes fall before getting too concerned about who is still on the board when it’s their turn again at pick 43. 

But if you asked me, “Josh, who would be in that top tier of draft prospects for the White Sox?” I’d go with the following five players:

Tier 1

• Charlie Condon, Georgia
• Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
• Jac Caglianone, Florida
• Chase Burns, Wake Forest
• Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Tier 2

• JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia
• Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina
• Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep (MS)
• Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

The third tier is a big shrug. 

I hope we have better clarity in this draft class with another month of gameplay. We need to see JJ Wetherholt back on the field, and it would help Wake Forest a ton if Nick Kurtz and Seaver King find a more consistent offensive rhythm. It’s just been a lot of inconsistent play from the perceived top prospects to start, and the prep class lacks future star talent. There was great concern that the White Sox suffered terrible luck with the last MLB draft lottery. Perhaps that is the case, but I’d rather draft fifth overall than 10th with this class. 

My goal is to put together a mock draft in late April. We should have more confidence for this class overall so that I can start compiling a list for targets at picks 43 and 68. If we don’t, well, I guess throwing darts at a whiteboard would be a fun way to draft players.

Best Left-Handed Power Bat: Jac Caglianone

It was a fun series last weekend between Texas A&M and Florida featuring two top-10 prospects: OF Braden Montgomery and 1B/SP Jac Caglianone. Montgomery had a tough Friday night game, going hitless, but he finished the weekend strong by hitting two homers. He made a fantastic defensive play by gunning Caglianone down at second base.

But Caglianone had the best weekend by hitting 6-for-14 with two home runs. Those two bombs were in his first plate appearances on Friday against a left-handed starter.

First Plate Appearance

Texas A&M starter Ryan Prager had a tough outing against Florida, only lasting 2⅓ innings despite getting five runs of support in the second inning. Prager was ahead of Caglianone in the first plate appearance, starting with a 91 mph fastball down the pipe and a weak foul ball off a slider. Sticking with the slider, Prager varied the pitch's depth and direction, trying to get Caglianone to whiff.

But to Caglianone's credit, he stuck with the breaking pitch, which is an excellent sign of progress. In his first two seasons at Florida, Caglianone had a significant disparity between strikeouts and walks. He struck out more than 18 percent while his walk rate struggled to exceed 5 percent. Of course, that type of plate discipline is right up the White Sox's alley.

Jokes aside, the White Sox and Caglianone are trying to improve their plate discipline. Last year, Caglianone would have been in automatic swing mode on every pitch, especially the offerings from Prager that were low in the zone. Instead, Caglianone laid off both pitches to draw the count even.

Prager threw a tricky slider on the sixth pitch of the at-bat. Breaking late on the inside corner, Caglianone was lucky to foul it off but stayed alive for one more pitch.

That's when Prager made his mistake. On a hanging slider over the heart of home plate, Caglianone did not miss, bashing a deep home run to center field.

What I like about Caglianone’s swing is his ability to keep his hands back. Watching the home run at half speed, you can see Caglianone’s belt buckle before his hands engage in the swing. That split difference is his improved plate discipline. His lower half is geared just in case the pitch was a 90 mph fastball. Instead, Caglianone recognized the breaking pitch and kept his hands back long enough to barrel the pitch up. His back foot lifts off the ground with the force he generates through the swing.

SECOND PLATE APPEARANCE

In the third inning, Prager returned to the fastball to try to get ahead of Caglianone again. It worked in the first plate appearance, so why not try it again?

Whoops.

The fastball is almost identical in the first inning, and again, Caglianone does a great job of recognizing the pitch before crushing it over the batter’s eye. I admire home runs where outfielders stand and watch it fly over their heads.

Florida has a big weekend against LSU, and it’s an excellent opportunity to see how the Tigers handle Caglianone. RHP Luke Holman has been great for LSU and will get the start Friday night. He’s trying to bounce back from his first rough outing in 2024 when Mississippi State collected ten hits off Holman in 4⅔ innings. Outside of that shaky performance, Holman had four straight scoreless outings to start the season.

If Caglianone has another multi-hit game or continues to crush bombs off Holman, it firmly plants him as the best left-handed power bat in this draft.

Notable Performances

Hagen Smith keeps rolling against Auburn

The SEC conference schedule will feature Thursday games to start a series, and Arkansas LHP Hagen Smith again dominated against Auburn. His final line was 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K, and his season would look better than it already does if you wipe away his Opening Day outing. Since Feb. 23, Smith’s line is 28 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 60 K spanning five starts.

I also like the comp Pitching Ninja put together on Twitter for Smith: Carlos Rodon, especially given how Smith throws his fastball.

Chase Burns extends 10+ strikeout streak to four games

For some reason, Wake Forest and Louisville played a scoreless Friday afternoon game going into the sixth inning. That type of low-scoring affair can put pressure on young pitchers, who have to hold while the offense comes around. This happened for Chase Burns, as the Demon Deacons won 5-1 once the bats took advantage of the Cardinals' bullpen.

Burns' only blemish was allowing a solo home run to start the sixth inning, which did give Louisville the lead. Outside of that bomb, Burns was locked in again, going 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K on 91 pitches. That's four straight starts with ten or more strikeouts for Burns. During this streak, Burns has 50 strikeouts to seven walks in 26 innings. That plays.

The Burns vs. Smith debate is a welcome sight, and it's what you prefer in handedness with pitchers. Both are terrific and better than Rhett Lowder, the second pitcher in last year's MLB draft (eighth overall to Cincinnati).

Games I’m Watching (or re-watching) 

Re-watch: Hagen Smith and Chase Burns outings to provide more film in next week’s MLB Draft Report. 

Arkansas vs. Auburn re-watch

Wake Forest vs. Louisville re-watch

No. 10 Florida vs. No. 5 LSU 

Friday: 7:00 PM CT - SEC Network
Saturday: 6:00 PM CT - SEC Network
Sunday: 2:00 PM CT - SEC Network