The buzz among scouts around the league is similar to the buzz around national reporters: the sense that the White Sox will trade Dylan Cease before camp breaks at the end of the month has greatly increased. It's enough that Cease told reporters Tuesday night that Chris Getz called him ahead to prep him for the increase in chatter, and it doesn't seem to be the only preparation the club is making.
A source confirmed Ken Rosenthal's report that the White Sox have inquired on free agent right-handed starter Michael Lorenzen, potentially providing an infusion of innings that would take on greater importance if they dealt Cease, who has made the most starts in MLB over the last three seasons.
After spending his 20s as a versatile hard-throwing swingman, with so much athleticism that he's occasionally moonlighted as an outfielder in past years, Lorenzen earned enough fans around the league to get opportunities to start each of the last two season. A shoulder strain wiped out most of his 2022 second half with the Angels, but Lorenzen flourished enough in last season's first half with the Tigers to earn an All-Star bid as Detroit's sole representative.
An optimistic read is that the Sox would be trying to extend the run of the guy they saw in Detroit. After a midseason trade to the Phillies, Lorenzen threw a no-hitter in his second start with Philadelphia, and finished that night with a season stat line of 3.23 ERA in 122⅔ innings. That outing also took Lorenzen soaring past his previous career-high in innings (113⅓), when he already had yet to complete 100 innings in a season since 2015. Opposing hitters slashed .333/.400/.574 against Lorenzen for the rest of the season, prompting a move back to the bullpen in the season's final week, where he remained through the postseason.
A less optimistic read offered by league scouts is that Lorenzen was overstretched as a starter and extended his success as long as he could. The 32-year-old went more four-seam heavy than ever before, possibly prompted by poor results on his sinker, and didn't receive a boost in whiffs in the exchange. Lorenzen struck out 17.8 percent of hitters last year while his 41 percent ground ball rate was the lowest he's posted since his rookie year, leaving him without a signature method of getting outs.
No one would actually ask Lorenzen to try to replicate Cease, but they notably contrast each other in that Cease has defined strengths and a trademark weapon to carry him beyond his weaknesses, whereas Lorenzen has bounced between different attack plans and different roles over the years that speak to his versatility.
With the current amorphous shape of the 2024 White Sox roster, the 153 innings of 4.18 ERA that Lorenzen ended up at last season looks like something they would giddily accept. He threw an enviable amount of strikes (7.5 percent walk rate), and earned an above-average amount of chases (67th percentile per Statcast) because of it. He certainly touted enough command to undress undisciplined offenses, as Lorenzen faced the White Sox in back-to-back starts last season and fell an out short of 14 innings with a single earned run allowed.
In a world where Lorenzen works with Brian Bannister and Ethan Katz to refine the weapons he induces chases with (he's tried out a sinker at times the past two years), or restores the effectiveness of his sinker in front of an improved White Sox defense, and this would resemble the sort of pitching investments the team has been making all offseason.
Rosenthal reported previously that Lorenzen is seeking a multi-year deal after his efforts to establish himself as a starter the last two seasons, but it would be steering clear of the premiums required to sign proven bat-missers for a team that has already slashed payroll by $50 million with Cease still on board. The Sox are transitioning from the slate of power arms they sought to build their previous rebuild upon, to smaller scale projects to uncover effective starters from unproven sources, and this would be in kind.
