In the latest collective bargaining agreement, MLB responded to teams timing the promotion of top prospects around draconian competitive and financial incentives, and sought to remedy it by giving them a different set of draconian competitive and financial incentives to consider. Fighting fire with fire -- not just for Talking Heads anymore.
Whereas teams used to hold potential cornerstone prospects in the minors to wring out the most years of contractual control -- and often, to avoid four years of salary arbitration -- now there's the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) enticing them with an extra draft pick and bonus pool space. And whereas banking on players producing at star levels more than six years out seemed highly speculative, PPI simply asks teams if they feel their cornerstone prospect can win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top-3 in MVP voting before they hit arbitration (typically their first three seasons).
That might be even more speculative, but at least it's about years we're more likely to presently care about.
If a team has a homegrown, rookie-eligible top-100 prospect (per two out of three of MLB, Baseball America and ESPN) accrue a full year of service time and hit either of these award benchmarks, they are granted a pick immediately after last pick of the first round of the following draft. For example, the Diamondbacks and Orioles have the 31st and 32nd picks this year because Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson were still rookie-eligible after their 2022 debuts, spent the full 2023 season in the majors, and each won last season's Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues. The exact slot value of those picks is not set yet, but the 2023 pick the Mariners got for Julio Rodríguez winning 2022 AL ROY was worth over $2.8 million.
Finally, we have arrived at the relevant portion.
With a major league roster coming off 101 losses and a still middle-tier farm system, the White Sox have to be on the lookout for ways to strengthen their organization that don't majorly deviate with their stated goal to "get out of the bottom of a win cycle as soon as possible."
Colson Montgomery, a 22-year-old shortstop, is the White Sox top prospect, a consensus top-15 global prospect, and is easy enough to envision as the best player on their next winning team. A 90th percentile outcome for Montgomery's debut season could produce big, shiny ROY-caliber offensive numbers. Just like Yale could use another international airport, the White Sox could use another $3 million in draft bonus pool room. Until Noah Schultz reaches Double-A, Montgomery is the best White Sox player for this thought exercise.
But for several reasons, Paul DeJong should still breathe easy this spring. In a scenario where Montgomery had a fully healthy 2023 season, it would be conceivable to see him registering a very serious challenge to break camp with the big league club. As it stands instead, Montgomery has 217 career plate appearances at Double-A (.218/.350/.391) where his baseline power and patience skills have been on display, but have left Sox officials with belief that there is still meaningful offensive development remaining. With the central long-term concern in Montgomery's game being his defense, the 2024 season offers an opportunity for him to work extensively under Triple-A Charlotte manager (and former infielder) Justin Jirschele, who is doubling as the organization's assistant field coordinator this season.
Which is to say nothing of Montgomery's AL ROY competition for 2024 potentially including Jackson Holliday, Junior Caminero, Evan Carter and maybe even Wyatt Langford. Before even assessing their ceilings, only Langford has less upper-level experience than Montgomery, and the gap isn't that big given that Langford was drafted in July. With Montgomery, the team's concern lies in burdening him with developing alongside the pressure to produce for the major league team, while grappling with the likely struggle of a significantly more advanced level than he's ever played at -- before even getting to the "outplay Jackson Holliday" part of the equation.
In actuality, PPI is more likely to impact Montgomery's promotion in regard to the 2025 season than this one.
Both Carroll and Henderson debuted at the end of August in 2022 and maintained rookie eligibility (fewer than 130 at-bats) before dominating in 2023 and providing their club with PPI picks. If Montgomery is playing immaculate defense at Charlotte under Jirschele's guidance and popping three fly balls onto Mint Street per week by Memorial Day, while the Sox's middle-infield depth has descended into chaos, it's easy to imagine it becoming unpalatable for the Sox to hold down their top prospect for potential draft capital. But with Montgomery having never played at Triple-A, adjusting to a new level at a normal speed could bring to the Sox to the second half of the season before his performance demands a promotion. At that point, the difference between Montgomery maintaining rookie eligibility and its potential rewards could be a matter of weeks.
Just like the White Sox clearly prioritized service time in determining the promotion timelines for Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr., who both wound up signing contract extensions after being passed over for September call-ups, they will be keeping the PPI incentive in mind here.
The nice thing is that until shown otherwise, Montgomery's performance carries the majority of the weight. Just as his not-quite-readiness looks primed to carry the day this spring, the White Sox want to let his development dictate his progression going forward. But if things line up for PPI eligibility, the White Sox have intentional incentive to make the timing work.
Setting Montgomery aside, this current White Sox camp has more Sox brass wondering aloud about how things would be affected if a more expansive field of prospects were eligible for incentives, rather than just the top-100 crop. If the club had incentives for a top-15 prospect in their organization breaking camp with the team and factoring into awards, it could provide a nudge for players like Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, who are performing as well or better as their more experienced competition in battles for spots on the pitching staff.
