James and I originally planned to publish this mailbag during the second half of last week, when the White Sox had a desert of viewable spring training games. Then Dylan Cease got traded and threw our entire editorial schedule into disarray, and P.O. Sox was consequently sidetracked.
The good news? The way the spring unfolded over the last week allowed us to update/re-frame some question and answers to be more relevant. At least that's the way we're spinning it.
As always, thanks for your support.
What is plane of rotation?
Could you please detail what plane of rotation is, as Bannister uses it? If also like to know of this topic is one that's universally accepted, cutting edge, or somewhere in between?
-- FishSox
James: It’s the idea that any given pitcher has a certain way their body is best suited to move in their delivery, and that it’s going to vary wildly from person to person. But the closer a pitcher’s delivery is wedded how their body is geared to move, rotate, etc, the better they can repeat their delivery, which should probably translate into throwing strikes, maintaining deception.
It’s certainly an accepted concept in two other organizations, since Bannister was a valued piece in the Red Sox and Giants front offices, scouts I speak to respect his know-how and the immediate reaction of White Sox coaches is “I ask this guy about friggin’ everything.” On the one hand it can be considered cutting edge because Bannister cites a lot of biomechanical reasons behind his approach, but it’s also kind of an old school idea of not messing with guys for the sake of pitch design.
I think it’s most interesting to see it as a reaction to what the White Sox had been doing, when a lot of efforts had been geared around trying to facilitate specific types of overpowering, bat-missing movement: let’s maximize this guy’s four-seam vertical action, etc. Whereas this seems like a pivot to embracing how pitchers already throw, get them to consistent strike-throwing, and then figuring out how to make the most of it from there.
Who is the next White Sox superstar?
The last Sox superstar was Big Frank. The last nationally known player was TA. Who do you think will be the next superstar and/or nationally known player?
-- Andrew S.
Jim: If Luis Robert Jr. manages to combine the elements he's shown in different season – Gold Glove-caliber defense, a .300 average and 30-plus-homer power – in one huge year, he could barge into the national conversation, although most of that conversation would center on which team has what it takes to trade for him.
Not to saddle with Colson Montgomery with even greater expectations than he's already shouldering, but the way he's handled the media at 20, 21, 22 years old suggests that he'd have no problem taking on the public-facing responsibilities of being a team's best player. Whether any one of his tools is explosive enough to garner massive attention instead of a more normal form of league-wide appreciation would be the bigger crimp on his profile. If it's not him, then the Sox are going to have to hope for a new ballpark to get non-Sox fans talking.
Can the White Sox ever reverse their plate discipline?
How likely is it that Sox can dramatically pivot from the worst chasers out of the zone in MLB and become a high OBP team in 24? Maybe the new guys, but can the holdovers do it?
-- John G.
James: The first part, not chasing out of the zone, is a lot more achievable than the second. Danny Mendick is one of the most disciplined hitters in the sport. He has a discrete area where he can do damage and he sticks to it. But he has a 7 percent career walk rate because there’s still plenty of room in the zone for pitchers to attack without fear of a 500-foot bomb as punishment.
There’s a lot of personnel reasons why a high OBP is probably not in the cards, whether it’s Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez being swing-first in approach to the talent level just falling off in the lower third of the order. But back-to-back years topping the league in chase rate requires getting below median outcomes from seemingly every part of the roster. Perhaps I’m overly obsessed with how the Tigers squeezed average-ish outcomes from an underwhelming and injury-ravaged roster last year, but their flat-out bad 89 wRC+ offense still only chased out of the zone at an average rate despite employing Javy Báez.
How low should the Sox go?
Why not Trevor Bauer instead of these Royals castoffs?
-- Mark S.
Jim: For the same reason no other team with greater aspirations and greater need for signing Bauer has done so. While he might not have been found guilty in the court of law, he hasn’t done anything to suggest he won’t make equally ill-advised choices that put him and his employers in a similar situation.
Well before all the sexual assault allegations, back in 2019, Bauer sicced his social media following on a random college girl by tagging her in 80 tweets after she made some tepid knocks about Bauer lacking a World Series ring in a standard rival-fan defense of Alex Bregman. He had to be coaxed into a playing-dumb apology after ruining her life for a couple of weeks, and that signaled to me that he lacked any ordinary sense of perspective or self-control. Aroldis Chapman just provided some very unsettling evidence for how history tends to repeat in this area. Julio Urias is another.
There’s a not-so-fine line between acknowledging poor decisions that created an avoidable situation and admitting guilt, but he’s never been interested in exploring that territory. Chris Getz already has enough on his plate in setting a respectable course for the team, and Pedro Grifol certainly doesn’t possess the gravitas to take anybody under his wing. Pass.
Who represents the 40-man roster fat?
With all the NRIs that will likely make the team, who is at risk of losing their spot on the 40 man to make room?
-- Steve G.
Jim: It's a good question, even before Chris Getz offered one name by designating Peyton Burdick to make room for Steven Wilson and Jairo Iriarte (Burdick was claimed by Baltimore).
Getz had already turned over a dozen spots on the 40-man roster, so the players now on the fringes are guys that his administration was interested in, rather than holdovers from the old guard.
The Sox might have the option of placing Jimmy Lambert and/or Shane Drohan on the 60-day injured list, depending on the timetables of their respective shoulder issues, so that would open up two spots without cutting anybody. Or maybe they're just not that attached to Drohan and return him to the Red Sox in accordance with Rule 5, um, rules.
Among the pitchers, Sammy Peralta was added to the 40-man in the Rick Hahn era, and he was among the first cuts this spring, so he's probably a rung below Bailey Horn among lefties. Among righties, I get Alex Speas' appeal more than Josimar Cousin. That creates a pathway for four spots. If the Sox need more, the situation is probably more dire than they expected.
How can the White Sox hang around .500?
Facing an April schedule that includes the Braves, Phillies, Rays and Twins (7 times), paint a picture on how the Sox head to St. Louis on May 2 at or close to .500.
-- Michael B.
James: The White Sox will … probably not be at .500 when they go to St. Louis on May 2, just to get that out of the way. A troubling tendency this team has instilled in me is seeking out historical precedent for extreme turnarounds. But just last season the Miami Marlins posted a .599 OPS in spring. The difference between their OPS and the 29th place team was roughly equal to the difference between 29th place and 15th place.
The 2023 Marlins were … possibly not that good of a team and certainly a very bad offense, to the point where even Jake Burger’s prolonged Frank Howard impersonation could not turn them into a strong unit. They posted a 94 wRC+ through May 1 with a middling staff ERA, not particularly great defense and a -35 run differential. They were also 16-13 through the strength of clutchitude? They wildly overperformed in one-run ballgames all year and probably could never repeat last season even if they played it 49 more times.
So, that’s the model to follow. All their rotation options have to be immediately stable, the bullpen of survivors has to be at least average with a clear hierarchy that Pedro Grifol orders correctly and their thin offense has to thrive in situational baseball. Hopefully they’re not underperforming with runners in scoring position to the point that Grifol is already actively citing it as an issue in mid-March or anything.
When will it end?
When will Grifol’s tenure as manager end?
-- Scott M.
Jim: I'm of the mindset that Grifol is still around because 1) Jerry Reinsdorf wants Grifol to cross the halfway point in his contract before he pays him not to manage, and 2) Getz doesn't want to saddle his first hire with all the baggage losing brings. Even in a world where the choice is entirely his, Getz might choose to wait a year.
If 2024 goes as well as 2023, not just in terms of record, but in terms of re-raising the same questions like "What are these guys doing out there?" and "What the hell is he talking about?", I'd expect him to be done after the year, if not during. They swapped out a lot of the coaching staff this past winter, so they may as well keep going.
If Grifol proves more capable of enforcing even standards for a roster with no real established hierarchy, and the team is a more ordinary kind of below-average, maybe he lasts through 2025. In that scenario, it's more about whether he provides a suitable environment for the next wave of prospects to establish themselves. In any case, it's nearly impossible to see him getting an extension. Stranger things have happened, I suppose, but Getz's job as the "single decision-maker" is to un-strange the White Sox, so let's establish those expectations until he specifically fails them.
