A day after Michael Soroka threw three innings of one-run ball, Chris Flexen one-upped him with three scoreless innings. Throw in Dylan Cease's strong start and Erick Fedde's respectable introduction, and the White Sox rotation is largely in place for whatever the regular season throws their way, Michael Kopech excepted.
The bullpen, on the other hand, is less certain in the middle of the spring than it was at the start.
Back when the White Sox signed Bryan Shaw, I outlined what a bullpen that prioritized keeping the most possible veteran relievers would look like:
- Locks (2): John Brebbia, Tim Hill
- Out of options (3): Deivi García, Jimmy Lambert, Touki Toussaint
- Rule 5 pick (1): Shane Drohan
- Article XX(B) minor league signings (3): Shaw, Leone, Chavez
Thanks to injuries and some dreadful performances, you can rearrange that group of nine into equal thirds, and only the first one is doing anything to cement themselves in the mix:
Healthy and reasonably productive (3): Hill, García, Leone
Hill has yet to strike out a batter, but he's otherwise fine. Plus, he's on a guaranteed contract, so he just has to be able to take the ball when Pedro Grifol gives it him. Garciá is missing bats the way he occasionally does with six strikeouts over five innings, while Leone gave up a two-run homer to Shohei Ohtani, but limited all other damage.
Injured(3): Brebbia, Lambert, Drohan
Brebbia looks like the best bet to escape this group. He suffered a calf injury that required a mobility scooter in the first days of camp, but he's been throwing bullpens recently, so half a spring may be enough for a veteran like him. Lambert was shut down 10-14 days due to shoulder soreness, and he's in the middle of that projected return window right now. Drohan had nerve decompression surgery on his left shoulder, which knocked him out for the rest of the spring and delayed any required action on his Rule 5 status.
Out of sorts (3): Toussaint, Shaw and Chavez
Their numbers say it all:
| PITCHER | G | IP | H | HR | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toussaint | 2 | 1.2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 59.40 |
| Shaw | 5 | 4.1 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 24.92 |
| Chavez | 4 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 18.00 |
| TOTAL | 11 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 27.90 |
In the All Things Being Equal Bullpen at the top, these are three guys the White Sox couldn't freely send to the minors. Toussaint would have to be placed on waivers, while Shaw and Chavez have the right to opt out of their contracts if the White Sox don't place them on the 26-man roster four days before Opening Day.
There's a catch, in that those guys actually have to pitch well enough to have other options available to them. Let's envision a world where these performances don't improve so we can establish the other end on the range of possibilities.
If Toussaint passes through waivers unclaimed -- and his now-guaranteed $1.3 million salary would make that more likely than a league-minimum guy -- the White Sox would be able to send him to Charlotte, because while he's been placed on waivers plenty over the course of his career, he doesn't have a previous outrighting on his record. A player can refuse all subsequent outright assignments, but he has to accept his first.
For Article XX-B free agents like Shaw and Chavez, if they're not in great shape by the time the first deadline approaches on March 23, they also have the ability to opt out of their minor-league deals on May 1 and June 1. The uncertainty surrounding the White Sox bullpen (which their performances are contributing to) might still make Charlotte the best place to hang out for a month, if they and the White Sox are interested in such an arrangement.
Perhaps they right the ship and respond with a strong finishing kick to claim their saved spots, but their vulnerability creates the possibility that only half of the bullpen is spoken for.
So who's in position to emerge from the non-guaranteed ranks?
40-man and loving it: Tanner Banks, Garrett Crochet
Banks figured to have a spot all along because he's been durable, watchable and useful over his two seasons in the majors, but as long as he's had minor-league options -- and there's one remaining -- the Sox haven't been afraid to use them, so he could theoretically be forced out of the mix. That appears to be a laughable notion at present.
With Crochet, it was more a matter of how committed the White Sox were to the starting-pitching experiment. If they want him pitching five innings every five days, Chicago might not be the place to do it at the start of the season, but if they just want him to have the mindset of throwing as many pitches as his body will allow to let his abilities determine his course, then there figure to be plenty of opportunities for extended outings in one form or another.
40-man and still around: Prelander Berroa, Bailey Horn, Jared Shuster
Josimar Cousin and Sammy Peralta were sent down to minor-league camp in the first round of cuts, and Alex Speas didn't survive the second, so that leaves three.
Berroa is wearing a 13.50 ERA this spring, but it's entirely due to one miserable outing against the Rangers. His other four have been scoreless, and he's walked just one of the 23 batters he's faced. He issued 42 walks over 67 innings last season, so if he continues to harness his power slider, he has the best stuff-based argument for a spot on the Opening Day roster.
The White Sox were able to re-acquire Horn because of their problems throwing enough strikes, and he hasn't yet forced a re-appraisal. Shuster seems more likely to stay a starter, especially if Toussaint's spot isn't secure.
Off the 40-man, but making a case: Jordan Leasure
Leasure put himself in position for Opening Day consideration with the way he finished 2023, striking out 20 batters over his final 10⅔ innings with Charlotte, then following it with an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League. He'd just have to earn it, because the White Sox wouldn't be obligated to put him on the 40-man roster.
Through five games, he's earning it (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K) and the gist of his internal reviews is that, hey, this guy is out-pitching most of his competitors in camp.
Off the 40-man and still around: Justin Anderson
Anderson has a relationship with Ethan Katz dating back to their Anaheim days, and Katz and others have indicated intrigue in Anderson's current form, but he's walked a guy in four of his five outings.
Not out of it: Chad Kuhl, Jake Woodford
Kuhl's appeared in two games, one good and one bad. Woodford's appeared in three games and has run the gamut with his appearances. They both have multiple-inning/spot start potential if the White Sox really need that sort of skill set.
Forecast
There are a lot of ifs right now. The health questions center on Brebbia experiencing no setbacks, and Lambert doing the same once he's cleared for throwing. If they're able to return to game action and look like their old selves, that takes care of two spots.
Among the guys who are reportedly healthy, it seems premature to count out Toussaint or Shaw based on the trust they earned last year, but they also don't have the license to be as off as they've looked.
Based on the sense of who's going to be ready on time, I'd project these five to be good for a spot:
- John Brebbia
- Tim Hill
- Garrett Crochet
- Tanner Banks
- Deivi García
And then it's a matter of whether Lambert gets healthy, and Toussaint, Shaw and/or Chavez can rebound. If they don't, it's a matter of how many 40-man spots they want to turn over. The White Sox will need at least one for Kevin Pillar if the outfield picture holds, and maybe one for Danny Mendick if they tab him for a utility infielder spot nobody has claimed.
Do they have the appetite for dedicating more 40-man spots to pitchers? If so, Leasure is in, and Leone might be worth a spot until he pitches himself out of the picture. If they don't, then Toussaint probably gets a fair amount of forgiveness, while Berroa and Horn might loom larger than normal.
No permutation of eight White Sox relievers is all that exciting, but after years of overinvesting in the bullpen well beyond the point of diminishing returns, the open-endedness is welcome, in a way. It's just the sort of welcome that could be worn out with enough blown leads early, but the lack of expectations for both the bullpen and the 2024 White Sox as a whole affords a lot more leeway.
