One week out, White Sox Opening Day roster still unsettled

The White Sox are one week away from opening their season against the Detroit Tigers, and slowly but surely, they're getting around to every question about their initial 26-man roster.

The rotation is now one piece away from completion after the White Sox traded Dylan Cease and elevated Garrett Crochet to Opening Day starter while moving Michael Kopech to the bullpen.

The catching tandem was probably never in doubt, but credit Korey Lee for making a game of it with the spring's best backstop production (.333/.423/.857) before the White Sox optioned him to Triple-A on Wednesday. It's by far the most life he's shown at any point since the White Sox acquired him, and based on the early returns from Martín Maldonado and Max Stassi -- who are hitting a combined .122/.232/.245 -- he should do what he can to stay ready.

That said, the White Sox still have a staggering 45 players remaining in camp with seven days left. They had 33 at this point last season.

Pedro Grifol tried to spin it positively ...

... but it's also that they're short on proven MLB production, especially in the bullpen. Let's try to hash out the most likely outcome despite the uncertainty.

White Sox locks

Yoán Moncada was a late scratch for Wednesday's game due to an illness, but assuming this isn't yet another edition of Late Spring Misfortune that spoils an entire half, the White Sox will be rolling with their Plan A lineup, and a better-case scenario for their rotation.

Now, let's dive into the mess.

The bench

In play: Braden Shewmake, Gavin Sheets, Mike Moustakas, Danny Mendick, Kevin Pillar

This contest is back to five guys for three spots after a brief scare. Shewmake seemed to be out of consideration only a couple of days ago when he supposedly was sidelined 2-4 weeks with an ankle sprain, but he's back participating in baseball activities, with Grifol once again selling way past the close:

“He kind of shocked me really,” Grifol said. “When he came off the field, the ankle didn’t look great. He’s out there taking BP and ground balls yesterday on the day off. I saw him in the training room, then he took ground balls. That’s just another sign of character, will and passion to be part of this.”

Shewmake is only hitting .219/.235/.313, but he's on the 40-man roster, so his ability to reinforce the infield might be good enough for now, even though Mendick is starting to round into form.

As for Moustakas, Sheets is hitting circles around him, so if the White Sox only need a lefty bench threat, then it'd seem to be pretty cut-and-dried, unless ...

Right field

In play: Dominic Fletcher, Pillar, Sheets

... Sheets is pressed into a right field platoon. I don't think Fletcher's unimpressive first impression -- .152/.250/.196, 19 strikeouts over 52 plate appearances -- should be enough to sink him for Opening Day. He's 26 and he has options remaining, so they're probably better off giving him the initial run before scrambling for solutions, because it's a bad scene regardless of whether he's sent down in March, April or May.

However, Fletcher is coming off a broken finger, and the White Sox habitually underestimate the effect of season-ending injuries the year before. Meanwhile, Sheets has been the White Sox's most dynamic hitter this spring. If nothing else, this combination of events will test the White Sox's ability to resist playing first basemen in the outfield in the Chris Getz Era.

Fifth starter

In play: Nick Nastrini

Michael Lorenzen just agreed to a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers, so unless the White Sox are planning on delivering a suitcase full of cash to Jordan Montgomery, there isn't another candidate. This is undoubtedly a positive development for Nastrini, and it'd be an early source of excitement and intrigue for White Sox fans. It'd just leave no natural candidate for starts in the event of injury or failure. At least there aren't any real stakes riding on the absence of depth this time around.

The bullpen

In play: Damn near everybody.

So let's break them into groups.

Inside track: John Brebbia, Jordan Leasure, Deivi Garcia

Brebbia hasn't yet appeared in a standard Cactus League game due to a calf injury at the start of spring training, but he's been appearing on the back fields with regularity, so he'll probably be on track for Opening Day as long as he avoids a setback. García is on the 40-man roster, out of options and performing well. Leasure is not yet on the 40-man, but he will be at some point during the 2024 season, and he hasn't been scored upon in eight games.

Lump them in with Hill, Banks and Wilson, and assuming Kopech is in the bullpen until he isn't, the White Sox have all but one spot spoken for. However, with Jimmy Lambert, Prelander Berroa and Shane Drohan all sidelined with arm injuries, the competition for the last spot is wide open.

Out of options/can opt out: Touki Toussaint, Bryan Shaw, Jesse Chavez, Dominic Leone, Brad Keller

Toussaint has no options remaining, though he could still be outrighted, while the others are all Article XX-B free agents. Leone is having the steadiest spring of the group, although he's been short of imposing. Shaw and Chavez have struggled to dig themselves out of early holes, and Keller hasn't started throwing in competitive action yet.

Toussaint looks like the wild card, and in more ways than one. He's calmed down since an abysmal start with three scoreless outings, but he's still issued more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) over those four innings, giving him 11 walks against two strikeouts over 5⅔ innings. He made himself useful as a swingman despite those same lapses in control last season, and the White Sox will probably have plenty of use for a guy who can throw multiple low-leverage innings, even if he's not a model of efficiency in doing so.

It's a delicate-enough situation that Toussaint can't absorb another severe control collapse reminiscent of early spring, but if he continues demonstrating a passing familiarity with the strike zone from here on out, that seems like it could be enough to edge out the opt-out candidates, because none of them has distinguished himself in a way the White Sox would regret losing. Besides, they could be replaced by the journeymen who can remain in the fold.

Still in camp, less leverage: Jake Cousins, Justin Anderson, Jake Woodford, Chad Kuhl

Cousins missed most of last season due to shoulder issues, and he had a late start to his Cactus League season, but he's struck out 10 batters over six innings, which is the kind of swing-and-miss stuff his slider-first profile has demonstrated at the MLB level when healthy. Anderson's been healthy the whole spring, and he's throwing more strikes as of late, so both are in position for consideration in the event that one of the aforementioned relievers isn't rosterable due to injury or watchability. But they'll also be working under standard minor-league contracts if they're not needed immediately.

Hazarding a guess

In a world where Nastrini and Leasure make the Opening Day cut with ease and start trying to outdo each other's predicted debut, the White Sox will have to open two spots on a full 40-man roster to make room. That's no issue with regards to the return for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, but reluctance to turn over many more spots could result in a sort-of tiebreaker for less vital decisions downstream.

Bench: Max Stassi, Braden Shewmake, Gavin Sheets, Kevin Pillar

Pillar opened the spring by striking out in seven of his first 12 plate appearances, but he's been fine since, so the Sox may as well let him provide relief for Fletcher in a straight platoon and adjust if the early results demand change. He'd just require a third 40-man roster spot to be opened, which is why I don't think the Sox would make a special effort to accommodate Mendick or Moustakas unless they had a specific infield need.

Bullpen: Tanner Banks, Tim Hill, Steven Wilson, Michael Kopech, John Brebbia, Jordan Leasure, Deivi García, Touki Toussaint

That's pretty chalky, but it also isn't impressive. The White Sox will have one of the least projectable bullpens in the game, and that alone might inspire the veterans on hand to wait a month before opting out, unless not being able to break into this bullpen is what tells them to retire.