Wake Forest was the preseason No. 1 ranked team, and for good reason. On the initial Sox Machine Top 100 Draft Prospect list, the Demon Deacons had five projected first-rounders on their roster. But 2024 has been very disappointing for Wake Forest as they finished the regular season getting swept by NC State. For a team with Omaha aspirations, a 36-19 record and a 15-15 mark in the ACC have put Wake Forest’s odds of hosting a regional in serious jeopardy. Hosting is important for Wake Forest because they are a different team playing in Winston-Salem (25-7 home record) compared to on the road (10-11 away, 1-1 neutral).
While Nick Kurtz and Seaver King eventually put up good numbers for the season, the projected star who actually shined throughout 2024 was pitcher Chase Burns. In a must-win situation for Wake Forest last weekend, Burns was electric. He struck out 16 batters over seven innings while allowing just one run on two hits against Clemson.
On Friday night, Burns was tasked to even the series against NC State on the road. Once again, Burns didn’t disappoint. He pumped 100 MPH fastballs by hitters, and showed the ability to vary his slider both to steal first-pitch strikes and to bury for strike three. Against left-handed batters, he also threw his changeup more frequently. Burns still needs more refinement, as his changeup looks like a slower fastball with minimal horizontal or vertical break.
The only run Burns allowed was unearned when a bad throw from shortstop Marek Houston allowed NC State’s Luke Nixon to score from second base when Kurtz couldn't scoop it at first. Multiple poor defensive plays from Wake Forest have caught me by surprise. With an average effort behind him, Burns’ night could have been easier.
Still, Burns finished with a final line of 7 IP, 5 H, R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K, on 94 pitches. Despite another heroic effort from Burns, Wake Forest lost 2-1 by walking in the winning run.
Arkansas suffered a similar end Thursday night when visiting Texas A&M. In the 11th inning, Arkansas pitcher Will McEntire walked in the winning run as Texas A&M won 1-0. It was a tough loss for the Razorbacks, who were 10-run ruled on Saturday and lost their final series. They are not in the same boat as Wake Forest, as Arkansas finished 43-12 and 20-10 in the SEC and will host a regional.
To hold a strong offensive team in Texas A&M to just a single run over 11 innings was a remarkable feat, and leading that charge was starter Hagen Smith. In steady rain, Smith dominated, pitching six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits while striking out 14 and walking none. In another premier matchup, Smith dominated Braden Montgomery, who was recently mocked to the White Sox at Pick 5 by Jim Callis at MLB.com. Montgomery went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against Smith, and finished 0-for-5 with four strikeouts on the night.
Smith has now faced three of the top four college bats in this draft class, and the results are astonishing.
| Oregon State 2B Travis Bazzana | 0-for-3, 3 strikeouts |
| Florida 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone | 0-for-3 |
| Texas A&M RF Braden Montgomery | 0-for-3, 3 strikeouts |
Burns and Smith have demonstrated they are the best-starting pitchers in this draft class, with expectations of being taken in the Top 10. From a White Sox perspective, it’s getting harder for me to make a case for them not taking Smith or Burns at Pick 5. This organization desperately needs more talented position players, but Burns and Smith are showcasing an elite arsenal and dominating Top 5 talent in their appearances.
As long as Jerry Reinsdorf continues to be the White Sox chairman, fans should never expect big free-agent contracts dished out to elite starting pitchers (nor position players for that matter). Pitchers like Burns and Smith don’t grow on trees, and I think White Sox senior advisor to pitching Brian Bannister can find ways for them to unlock more consistent command. Smith was so dominant against Montgomery that I’ve soured a bit on the outfielder for the White Sox.
| Pitcher | School | W | L | ERA | FIP | GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB% | K% | BA |
| Hagen Smith | Arkansas | 9 | 0 | 1.52 | 2.32 | 14 | 77 | 35 | 14 | 13 | 9.7% | 50.2% | 0.135 |
| Chase Burns | Wake Forest | 10 | 1 | 2.63 | 3.22 | 14 | 89 | 51 | 28 | 26 | 7.0% | 49.6% | 0.164 |
If the White Sox decide not to select Smith or Burns, I think the position player debate sways away from college hitters to prep players Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer. We’ll compare those two in a future Draft Report.
Now that the regular season has ended, conference tournaments begin on Tuesday. ACC Conference Tournament games will be played in Charlotte at Truist Field, and Wake Forest is the No. 8 seed. Their first pool game will be on Wednesday, May 22, against No. 12 seed Pittsburgh at 2:00 PM CT. Burns will most likely make his next start on Friday, May 24, against No.1 seed North Carolina, a team that hit four home runs off him on March 29.
Arkansas will travel to Hoover, Alabama (former home of the Birmingham Barons) as the SEC No. 2 seed and is in Bracket One. They await the winner of No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 10 South Carolina on Wednesday. While they didn’t play in the regular season, there is a way where No. 6 Georgia crosses paths with Arkansas and plays in the Winner’s Bracket on Thursday. Many in college baseball will consider that game must-see TV, as Hagen Smith will get an opportunity to face the top college bat in Georgia slugger Charlie Condon.
