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Analysis

Doubling the 2024 White Sox’s numbers at the halfway point

White Sox pitcher Chris Flexen

Chris Flexen (Matt Marton/USA TODAY Sports)

At the start of this month, Pedro Grifol defended his unwillingness to bench Andrew Benintendi by saying, "I believe in these guys. I believe in their ability. I’ve seen what they can do on the field and I’m not going to overreact to 150, 160 at-bats."

Benintendi soon went on the injured list with Achilles tendinitis that he said affected him more in the field than at the plate, but sapped his overall value no matter what. Instead of being irked that Benintendi undercut his manager's reasoning, Grifol praised Benintendi's character.

After Tuesday night's 4-3 loss to the Dodgers that gave them 60 losses at the 81-game mark, Andrew Benintendi showed why he and his manager have been simpatico the whole time:

"It’s been tough. It might look a lot uglier than it actually is. We’ve played a lot of one-run ballgames. We’ve put together one, two good weeks. But we’ve got 81 games left, just keep trucking, keep working on things, keep getting better."

I suppose Benintendi can detach himself from the results more than Grifol because his professional career isn't riding on it. He's still under contract for three more seasons, giving him a longer arc. He can look at his .286/.382/.643 line over 11 games in June and see an encouraging resolution when the dust settles, even if his 2024 numbers might be beyond repair.

But when judging the 2024 White Sox within the confines of 2024, it's irredeemably ugly. If they played the second half as well as they fared in the first, they'd finish 42-120. No White Sox team has lost more than 106 games, and only the Mets have lost that many games in a modern MLB season (we're not counting the 1899 Cleveland Spiders here).

That's why reaching the 81-game mark is satisfying, even if the results are the furthest thing from satisfactory. Struggles can no longer be waved away as the product of "a few weeks" or "two months," or some arbitrary number of plate appearances or innings. It's half a damn season.

(The same can be said about successes, but you can count those on one hand.)

There's reason to think the White Sox can't continue to be this bad, if only because one-run games tend to even out, or because the schedule eases up some starting at the end of the month. Then again, if the White Sox find buyers for what they're selling at the trade deadline -- which could include their three most productive pitchers and two or three of their best position players -- even the softest slate might not be able to save them, for there aren't a host of minor-league prospects who appear destined to succeed in their auditions.

As is tradition in these parts at this point in the season, I've doubled the season stats for position players and pitchers below, along with five things that jump out to me. Feel free to add your own impressions, repulsions and revulsions.

White Sox hitters

PlayerGPAR2B3BHRRBISB/CSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS+bWAR
Korey Lee12440138140143810/422118.242.284.389871.8
Andrew Vaughn1486105226018702/034136.236.285.37787-0.4
Nicky Lopez132474361020166/103072.247.302.279670.0
Paul DeJong1505326024028604/218170.235.282.4531061.0
Lenyn Sosa70240121004184/01058.212.252.31065-1.2
Andrew Benintendi1225663412012444/22884.203.249.31353-3.6
Tommy Pham88380481608288/23872.271.347.3881090.0
Gavin Sheets1465484432214562/064102.241.336.4051090.4
Eloy Jiménez783182612010266/02256.231.283.37487-0.4
Martí­n Maldonado8024810402100/01488.088.140.132-21-3.8
Danny Mendick78240201404128/0858.193.233.30756-1.2
Corey Julks60206181206146/02054.226.301.38795-0.4
Luis Robert Jr.522142810014226/02272.198.280.4691140.6
Dominic Fletcher5616888001201252.173.253.227390.0
Yoán Moncada2288862002/01020.282.364.4101210.8
Oscar Colás2676200080/2820.273.368.273880.0
Zach DeLoach1850220020/0618.136.24.18223-0.6
Five takeaways

No. 1: The White Sox are on pace to score 492 runs, which would be the fewest of any season that wasn't in a period of time known for offensive suppression, be it the Dead Ball Era of the Year of the Pitcher. Take out 1968 (463 runs) and everything before 1920, and these White Sox are as bad as it gets. It would also be in the neighborhood of the roster I simulated before Opening Day, where every position player was replaced by Chris Getz. Those are also the seasons where the Sox didn't have an individual player score more than 60 runs.

No. 2: Even counting the years before 1920, the 1910 White Sox are the only team with a lower batting average (.211) and OBP (.275) than the 2024 White Sox are posting (.218, .280).

No. 3: The White Sox have never had a team with a position player who failed to reach 2 WAR in a season. They've had seven different teams with one such player, including last year's team with Robert, but even the 1910 White Sox had Harry Lord reaching an even 2.0 WAR, even if he played just 44 games.

No. 4: Ron Karkovice was the last White Sox catcher to steal 10 bases, which he did back in 1992. That gives Korey Lee something to aspire to. Karkovice also hit .071/.160/.141 over 95 plate appearances in 1987, which gives Martín Maldonado something to avoid. Then again, Maldonado has already passed Karkovice's PA total from that year. Among White Sox players with at least 120 plate appearances, Trayce Thompson's .116 over 130 plate appearances in 2016 is the only relevant competition. Nobody else has been allowed to be nearly that unproductive for nearly that long.

No. 5: If you told me that Benintendi would be on pace for 12 homers at the halfway point, I'd imagine he'd be having a decent season.

White Sox pitchers

NameW-LERAGSVIPHRERHRBBKERA+bWAR
Erick Fedde10-43.05320188.2168666420481721347.4
Garrett Crochet12-123.05340188.2138666420402601347.6
Chris Flexen4-145.1334015815894902664120822.2
Michael Soroka0-145.753401221128878247210472-0.6
Jonathan Cannon2-44.5914266.2824034101258900.8
Nick Nastrini0-108.3912049.148504612503849-1.6
Michael Kopech4-124.73641064.1583634143894870.6
Tanner Banks2-44.25604727646348187892-0.2
Jordan Leasure0-44.0860457.1462626634521021.2
John Brebbia0-85.5266458.156363681274720.2
Jared Shuster0-03.4830062582424630381191.4
Steven Wilson2-104.0352044.234302083040103-0.2
Justin Anderson0-04.243603432161622040970.6
Mike Clevinger0-66.7580324426248183062-0.2
Dominic Leone0-27.0436030.23030248223059-1.2
Drew Thorpe2-25.026028.12220162221884-0.2
Deivi García2-47.07282283232224223059-1.4
Chad Kuhl0-06.75601616121221022630.2
Five takeaways

No. 1: It's kinda fun to see Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet hitting the same number of innings, runs, earned runs and homers in very different ways. It's also funny to see them with more than half of the White Sox's winning decisions.

No. 2: It won't happen for one reason or another -- trade(s), workload limitations, both -- but the White Sox have only had three seasons in which two pitchers reached 7 WAR. It's not surprising to see 1913 and 1927 on the list, just because the innings totals made it possible, but 1975 surprised me. Goose Gossage posted 8.2 WAR without starting a game!

No. 3: Besides Fedde and Crochet, pitchers who would take their full seasons and be content with it, what -- Jared Shuster? Jonathan Cannon, given that he's a rookie? Tanner Banks, if he stays on a roster for an entire season?

No. 4: No winless pitcher in MLB history has lost more than 13 games in a season, so here's an argument to put Michael Soroka back in the rotation. Even Anthony Young managed to go 2-14 and 1-16 during the span where he lost 27 consecutive decisions.

No. 5: Last year's White Sox team had 28 saves in their 61 wins. This White Sox team is on pace for 26 saves for 42 wins, which again brings the conversation back to the offense.

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